Abstract
The temporal consistency of the moisture fields (precipitation, evaporation and total precipitable water) from five global reanalyses is examined over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean during 1989–2009. This concern is important given that (1) global reanalyses are known to be prone to inhomogeneities and artificial trends caused by changes in the observing system, and (2) the period of study has seen a dramatic increase in the volume of satellite observations available for data assimilation. In particular, the study aims to determine whether the recent reanalyses are suitable for investigating changes in Antarctic surface mass balance. The datasets investigated consist of NCEP-2, JRA-25, ERA-Interim, MERRA and CFSR. Strong evidence of spurious changes is found in NCEP-2, JRA-25, MERRA and CFSR, although the magnitude, spatial patterns and timing of these artifacts vary between the reanalyses. MERRA exhibits a jump in Antarctic precipitation-minus-evaporation (P–E) and in Southern Ocean precipitation in the late 1990s. This jump is related to the introduction of sounding radiances from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU). The impact of AMSU is also discernible, albeit less pronounced, in CFSR data. It is shown that ERA-Interim likely provides the most realistic depiction of the interannual variability and overall change in Antarctic P–E since 1989. We conclude that the presence of spurious changes is not a solved problem in recent global reanalyses. Caution should continue to be exercised when using these datasets for trend analyses in general, particularly in high southern latitudes.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Warning note on RSS website: http://www.remss.com/ssmi/ssmi_browse.html.
References
Adler R, Huffman G, Chang A, Ferraro R, Xie P, Janowiak J, Rudolf B, Schneider U, Curtis S, Bolvin D, Gruber A, Susskind J, Arkin P, Nelkin E (2003) The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J Hydrometeor 4:1147–1167
Andersson E (2007) Data assimilation in the polar regions. ECMWF Newslett 112:10–15
Andersson E, Bauer P, Beljaars A, Chevallier F, Hólm E, Janisková M, Kållberg P, Kelly G, Lopez P, Mcnally A, Moreau E, Simmons AJ, Thépaut JN, Tompkins AM (2005) Assimilation and modeling of the atmospheric hydrological cycle in the ECMWF forecasting system. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 86(3):387–402
Arthern RJ, Winebrenner DP, Vaughan DG (2006) Antarctic snow accumulation mapped using polarization of 4.3-cm wavelength microwave emission. J Geophys Res 111:D06107
Auligné T, McNally AP, Dee DP (2007) Adaptive bias correction for satellite data in a numerical weather prediction system. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 133(624):631–642
Bengtsson L, Hagemann S, Hodges KI (2004a) Can climate trends be calculated from reanalysis data? J Geophys Res 109(D11): D11111
Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Hagemann S (2004b) Sensitivity of the ERA40 reanalysis to the observing system: determination of the global atmospheric circulation from reduced observations. Tellus Ser A 56:456–471
Bosilovich MG, Schubert S, Rienecker M, Todling R, Suarez M, Bacmeister J, Gelaro R, Kim GK, Stajner I, Chen J (2006) NASA’s Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications. US CLIVAR Variations 4(2): 5–8, http://www.usclivar.org/Newsletter/VariationsV4N2.pdf
Bosilovich MG, Chen J, Robertson FR, Adler RF (2008) Evaluation of precipitation in reanalyses. J Appl Meteor Climatol 47:2279–2299
Bouchard A, Rabier F, Guidard V, Karbou F (2010) Enhancements of satellite data assimilation over Antarctica. Mon Weather Rev 138(6):2149–2173
Bromwich DH, Fogt RL (2004) Strong trends in the skill of the ERA-40 and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses in the high and middle latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, 1958–2001. J Climate 17:4603–4619
Bromwich DH, Fogt RL, Hodges KI, Walsh JE (2007) A tropospheric assessment of the ERA-40, NCEP, and JRA-25 global reanalyses in the polar regions. J Geophys Res 112(D10): D10111
Bromwich DH, Nicolas JP, Monaghan AJ (2011) An assessment of changes in Antarctic and Southern Ocean precipitation since 1989 in contemporary global reanalyses. J Climate Accepted
Chelton DB, Wentz FJ (2005) Global microwave satellite observations of sea surface temperature for numerical weather prediction and climate research. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 86(8):1097–1115
Cullather RI, Bosilovich MG (2011) The moisture budget of the polar atmosphere in MERRA. J Climate Accepted
Cullather RI, Bromwich DH, Van Woert ML (1998) Spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic precipitation from atmospheric methods. J Climate 11(3):334–367
Dee D, Uppala S (2008) Variational bias correction in ERA-Interim. ECMWF Tech Mem No 575
Dee DP, Uppala S (2009) Variational bias correction of satellite radiance data in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 135:1830–1841
Dee D, Berrisford P, Poli P, Fuentes M (2009) ERA-Interim for climate monitoring. ECMWF Newslett No 119 pp 5–6, http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/119.pdf
Eisen O, Frezzotti M, Genthon C, Isaksson E, Magand O, van den Broeke MR, Dixon DA, Ekaykin A, Holmlund P, Kameda T, Karlo L, Kaspari S, Lipenkov VY, Oerter H, Takahashi S, Vaughan DG (2008) Ground-based measurements of spatial and temporal variability of snow accumulation in east antarctica. Rev Geophys 46:RG2001
Frezzotti M, Pourchet M, Flora O, Gandolfi S, Gay M, Urbini S, Vincent C, Becagli S, Gragnani R, Proposito M, Severi M, Traversi R, Udisti R, Fily M (2005) Spatial and temporal variability of snow accumulation in East Antarctica from traverse data. J Glaciol 51(172):113–124
Frezzotti M, Urbini S, Proposito M, Scarchilli C, Gandolfi S (2007) Spatial and temporal variability of surface mass balance near Talos Dome, East Antarctica. J Geophys Res 112(F2): F02032
Genthon C, Lardeux P, Krinner G (2007) The surface accumulation and ablation of a coastal blue-ice area near Cap Prudhomme, Terre Adelie, Antarctica. J Glaciol 53(183):635–645
Guedj S, Karbou F, Rabier F, Bouchard A (2010) Toward a better modelling of surface emissivity to improve AMSU data assimilation over Antarctica. IEEE Trans Geosci Remote Sens 48(4):1976–1985
Haimberger L (2007) Homogenization of radiosonde temperature time series using innovation statistics. J Climate 20(7):1377–1403
Hines KM, Bromwich DH, Marshall GJ (2000) Artificial surface pressure trends in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. J Climate 13:39403952
Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 77(3):437–471
Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang SK, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull Amer Meteor Soc 83:1631–1643
Kaspari S, Mayewski PA, Dixon DA, Spikes VB, Sneed SB, Handley MJ, Hamilton GS (2004) Climate variability in West Antarctica derived from annual accumulation-rate records from ITASE firn/ice cores. Ann Glaciol 39:585–594
Kleist DT, Parrish DF, Derber JC, Treadon R, Wu WS, Lord S (2009) Introduction of the GSI into the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System. Weather Forecast 24(6):1691–1705
Lemke P et al (2007) Observations: changes in snow, ice and frozen ground. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Liston GE, Winther JG (2005) Antarctic surface and subsurface snow and ice melt fluxes. J Climate 18(10):1469–1481
Marshall GJ (2002) Trends in Antarctic geopotential height and temperature: a comparison between radiosonde and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. J Climate 15:659–674
Meehl GA et al (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group i to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Monaghan AJ, Bromwich DH, Fogt RL, Wang SH, Mayewski PA, Dixon DA, Ekaykin A, Frezzotti M, Goodwin I, Isaksson E, Kaspari SD, Morgan VI, Oerter H, Van Ommen TD, Van der Veen CJ, Wen J (2006a) Insignificant change in Antarctic snowfall since the international geophysical year. Science 313(5788):827–831
Monaghan AJ, Bromwich DH, Wang SH (2006b) Recent trends in Antarctic snow accumulation from Polar MM5 simulations. Philos Trans R Soc Ser A 364:1683–1708
Nicholls RJ, Cazenave A (2010) Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones. Science 328(5985):1517–1520
Onogi K, Tsutsui J, Koide H, Sakamoto M, Kobayashi S, Hatsushika H, Matsumoto T, Yamazaki N, Kamahori H, Takahashi K, Kadokura S, Wada K, Kato K, Oyama R, Ose T, Mannoji N, Taira R (2007) The JRA-25 reanalysis. J Met Soc Jpn 85(3):369–432
Parkinson C (2003) Aqua: an earth-observing satellite mission to examine water and other climate variables. IEEE Trans Geosci Remote Sens 41(2):173–183
Poli P, Healy SB, Dee DP (2010) Assimilation of global positioning system radio occultation data in the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 136(653):1972–1990
Rabier F et al (2010) The Concordiasi project in Antarctica. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 91(1):69–86
Rienecker MM, Suarez M, Todling R, Bacmeister J, Takacs L, Liu HC, Gu W, Sienkiewicz M, Koster R, Gelaro R, Stajner I, Nielsen J (2008) The GEOS-5 data assimilation system—documentation of versions 5.0.1, 5.1.0, and 5.2.0. Tech. rep., NASA, USA
Saha S et al (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 91(8):1015–1057
Scarchilli C, Frezzotti M, Grigioni P, De Silvestri L, Agnoletto L, Dolci S (2010) Extraordinary blowing snow transport events in East Antarctica. Climate Dyn 34(7):1195–1206
Schlosser E, Manning KW, Powers JG, Duda MG, Birnbaum G, Fujita K (2010) Characteristics of high-precipitation events in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. J Geophys Res 115(D14): D14107
Simmons A, Uppala S, Dee D, Kobayashi S (2006) ERA-Interim: New ECMWF reanalysis products from 1989 onwards. ECMWF Newslett No 110 pp 25–35, http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/110rev.pdf
Sodemann H, Stohl A (2009) Asymmetries in the moisture origin of Antarctic precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 36: L22803
Stammerjohn SE, Martinson DG, Smith RC, Yuan X, Rind D (2008) Trends in Antarctic annual sea ice retreat and advance and their relation to El Nino-southern oscillation and southern annular mode variability. J Geophys Res 113: C03S90
Tedesco M, Monaghan AJ (2009) An updated Antarctic melt record through 2009 and its linkages to high-latitude and tropical climate variability. Geophys Res Lett 36(18): L18502
Thorne PW, Vose RS (2010) Reanalyses suitable for characterizing long-term trends. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 91:353–361
Tietäväinen H, Vihma T (2008) Atmospheric moisture budget over Antarctica and the southern ocean based on the ERA-40 reanalysis. Int J Climatol 28:1977–1995
Trenberth KE, Fasullo J, Smith L (2005) Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor. Climate Dyn 24:741–758
Turner J, Comiso JC, Marshall GJ, Lachlan-Cope TA, Bracegirdle T, Maksym T, Meredith MP, Wang Z, Orr A (2009) Non-annular atmospheric circulation change induced by stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent. Geophys Res Lett 36(8): L08502
Uppala SM et al (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 131:2961–3012
Uppala S, Dee D, Kobayashi S, Berrisford P, Simmons A (2008) Towards a climate data assimilation system: status update of ERA-Interim. ECMWF Newslett No 115 pp 1218, http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/115rev.pdf
Van de Berg WJ, van den Broeke MR, Reijmer CH, van Meijgaard E (2005) Characteristics of the Antarctic surface mass balance, 1958–2002, using a regional atmospheric climate model. Ann Glaciol 41:97–104
Van den Broeke M, van de Berg WJ, van Meijgaard E, Reijmer C (2006) Identification of Antarctic ablation areas using a regional atmospheric climate model. J Geophys Res 111: D18110
Vasiljevic D, Andersson E, Isaksen L, Garcia-Mendez A (2006) Surface pressure bias correction in data assimilation. ECMWF Newslett No 108 pp 20–27, http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/108.pdf
Vaughan DG, Bamber JL, Giovinetto M, Russell J, Cooper APR (1999) Reassessment of net surface mass balance in Antarctica. J Climate 12:933–946
Xie P, Arkin P (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull Am Meteor Soc 78:2539–2558
Yin X, Gruber A, Arkin P (2004) Comparison of the GPCP and CMAP merged gauge-satellite monthly precipitation products for the period 1979–2001. J Hydrometeor 5(6):1207–1222
Yu L, Weller RA (2007) Objectively analyzed air-sea heat fluxes for the global ice-free oceans (1981–2005). Bull Am Meteor Soc 88(4):527–539
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by Subcontract 20020793 from the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Grant ANT-0636523 from the National Science Foundation, and by the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets. The authors would like to thank Andrew Monaghan and Eric Rignot for preliminary discussions, Michael Bosilovich for information regarding MERRA, Dick Dee for information about ERA-Int, Richard Cullather for kindly providing his submitted manuscript, and Sheng-Hung Wang for his valuable help with the data processing. The authors are also grateful to the two anonymous reviewers whose comments improved the initial manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Contribution of Byrd Polar Research Center number 1407.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Nicolas, J.P., Bromwich, D.H. Precipitation Changes in High Southern Latitudes from Global Reanalyses: A Cautionary Tale. Surv Geophys 32, 475–494 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9114-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9114-6