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An analysis of climatic and human induced determinants of agricultural land use changes in Shupiyan area of Jammu and Kashmir state, India

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Abstract

The economy of the Jammu and Kashmir state depends mostly on traditional forms of occupation. Unaffected and unaltered by modern day industrial developments and changing times, the indigenous traditional occupations of farming, animal husbandry and horticulture forms the backbone of the state economy. But in the last few decades, Agriculture in the state as well as the study area is receiving a set back and Horticulture is flourishing leaps and bounds. The present study aims to analyze various determinants responsible for this change. Climatic as well as field data was thoroughly analyzed to comprehend the situation. A Mann–Kendall test was done on the climatic data to support the hypotheses. It was observed that initially changing climatic trends proved to be the triggering factor supporting this change, but in due course of time, the determinants took an economic and psychological turn. The perusal of Indian Meteorological Data reveals an increasing trend of annual mean maximum temperature from 16.78 °C in 1985 to 17.58 °C in 1995 and an increase from 5.30 °C to 7.00 °C in the annual mean minimum temperature, and as such acting as a triggering factor for the land use conversion. Further, the mean annual rainfall shows a decrease from 100.75 mm in 1981 to 79.43 mm in 1991. The greater economic returns from horticulture as well as the changing behavioral patterns of people over the time further cemented its growth. The farmers have since persisted with the horticulture activity as it has proven to be an economically a much better lucrative enterprise.

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Source: Primary Survey (2015)

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Source: Primary Survey (2015)

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Source: Primary Survey (2015)

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge District Administration Shopian (J & K) for facilitating the Field Surveys. We are also thankful to Indian Meteorological Department, Srinagar for providing us with the necessary climatic data. The Department of Geography & Regional Development, University of Kashmir is also acknowledged for providing us with Infrastructural facilities.

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Correspondence to Pervez Ahmed.

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Rasool, R., Shafiq, M.u., Ahmed, P. et al. An analysis of climatic and human induced determinants of agricultural land use changes in Shupiyan area of Jammu and Kashmir state, India. GeoJournal 83, 49–60 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-016-9755-6

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