Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Simulating the urban growth dimensions and scenario prediction through sleuth model: a case study of Rasht County, Guilan, Iran

  • Published:
GeoJournal Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Urban growth models (UGM) as regional planning tools are of great interest for quantitative analysis of urban complex systems. In this study, the SLEUTH UGM has been calibrated through a sequential multistage automated method to derive the pattern of urban growth in Rasht County from 1975 up to year 2011. Evaluation of model goodness of fit confirms that the model is adjusted properly to the area under investigation. Four growth rules of spontaneous, new spreading center, edge and road influenced growth as well as five coefficients of diffusion, breed, spread, road gravity and slope resistance are responsible to detect quantitative aspects of urban dynamics from control years. According to the results, successive improvement of the model parameters during the calibration mode indicates applicability of the model for forecasting of future urban growth mechanism until the year 2050. Accordingly, two growth scenarios were developed mainly with the aim of investigating the coefficients’ role in controlling the nature of urban dynamics. In this concern, the spread and road gravity coefficients’ value, as two major driving forces of urban sprawl in the study area were reduced to dictate compact and infill growth, compared to their original values derived from calibration for historical prediction. Comparison between two forecasted scenarios indicates insignificant difference in total amount of the urban area, which denotes there is a threshold to urbanization and the current trend of urban growth could not be maintained. Finally, we conclude that Rasht County with considerable industrial and agricultural attractions, will witness noticeable expansion from 20,310 ha in 2011, up to 34,745 ha in 2050, accounting to 71 % increase in total area of manmade surfaces.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Al-ahmadi, K., See, L., Heppenstall, A., & Hogg, J. (2008). Calibration of a fuzzy cellular automata model of urban dynamics in Saudi Arabia. Ecological Complexity. doi: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2008.09.004.

  • Al-shalabi, L., Billa, L., Pradhan, B., Mansor, S., & Al-sharif, A. (2012). Modelling urban growth evolution and land-use changes using GIS based cellular automata and SLEUTH models: The case of Sana’a metropolitan city, Yemen. Earth Science. doi:10.1007/s12665-012-2137-6.

  • Bagheri, M., Sulaiman, W. N A., & Vaghefi, N. (2012). Application of geographic information system technique and analytical hierarchy process model for land-use suitability analysis on coastal area. Journal of Coastal Conservation. doi:10.1007/s11852-012-0213-4.

  • Bathrellos, G. D., Gaki-Papanastassiou, K., Skilodimou, H. D., Papanastassiou, D., & Chousianitis, K. G. (2012). Potential suitability for urban planning and industry development using natural hazard maps and geological–geomorphological parameters. Environmental Earth Sciences, 66(2), 537–548.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bathrellos, G. D., Skilodimou, H. D., Kelepertsis, A., Alexakis, D., Chrisanthaki, I., & Archonti, D. (2008). Environmental research of groundwater in the urban and suburban areas of Attica region, Greece. Environmental Geology, 56(1), 11–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown, L. R. (2001). Eco-economy: Building an economy for the earth. New York, NY: W. W. Norton.

    Google Scholar 

  • Candau, J. T. (2002). Temporal calibration sensitivity of the SLEUTH urban growth model. Dissertation, Santa Barbara University.

  • Charles, D., Martin, H., Jeffrey, H., & Keith, C. (2005). Spatio-temporal dynamics in California’s Central Valley: Empirical links to urban theory. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 19(2), 175–195.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clarke, K. C., & Gaydos, L. J. (1998). Loose-coupling a cellular automata model and GIS: Long-term urban growth prediction for San Francisco and Washington/Baltimore. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 12(7), 699–714.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clarke, K. C., Hoppen, S., & Gaydos, L. (1996). Methods and techniques for rigorous calibration of cellular automaton model of urban growth. Third international conference/workshop on integrating GIS and environmental modeling. Santa Fe, New Mexico.

  • Clarke, K. C., Hoppen, S., & Gaydos, L. (1997). A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area. Environment and Planning B: Planning & Design, 24(2), 247–261.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dai, F. C., Lee, C. F., & Zhang, X. H. (2001). GIS-based geo-environmental evaluation for urban land-use planning. Engineering Geology, 61(4), 257–271.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dezhkam, S. (2013). Analysis of trend and pattern of urban growth using landscape ecology approach (case study: Rasht County). Dissertation, University of Tehran.

  • Ewing, R. (1997). Is Los Angeles-style sprawl desirable? Journal of the American Planning Association, 63(1), 107–126.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feng, H. H., Liu, H. P., & Lü, Y. (2012). Scenario prediction and analysis of urban growth using SLEUTH model. Pedosphere, 22(2), 206–216.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feng, Y., Liu, Y., Tong, X., Liu, M., & Deng, S. (2011). Modeling dynamic urban growth using cellular automata and particle swarm optimization rules. Landscape and Urban Planning, 102(3), 188–196.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fengming, X., Hong, S., He, Y., Hu, R., Bu, Y. C., Wu, X., et al. (2010). Simulating the impacts of ecological protection policies on urban land use sustainability in Shenyang-Fushun, China. International Journal of Urban Sustainable Development, 1(1–2), 111–127.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gandhi, S. I., & Suresh, V. M. (2012). Prediction of urban sprawl in Hyderabad city using spatial model, remote sensing and GIS techniques geography. International Journal of Scientific Research, 1(2), 80–82.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hasse, J. E., & Lathrop, R. G. (2003). Land resource impact indicators of urban sprawl. Applied Geography, 23(2–3), 159–175.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Herold, M., Goldstein, N. C., & Clarke, K. C. (2003). The spatiotemporal form of urban growth: measurement, analysis and modeling. Remote Sensing of Environment, 86(3), 286–302.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iranian Statistics Center. (2012). General Census of Population and Housing of Rasht City.

  • Jaeger, J. A. G., Bertiller, R., Schewick, C., & Kienast, F. (2010). Suitability criteria for measures of urban sprawl. Ecological Indicators, 10(2), 397–406.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jantz, C. A., Goetz, S. J., Donato, D., & Claggett, P. (2010). Designing and implementing a regional urban modeling system using the SLEUTH cellular urban model. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 34(1), 1–16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jantz, C. A., Goetz, S. J., & Shelley, M. K. (2003). Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on urban land use in the Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 31(2), 251–271.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jeong, J., García-Moruno, L., & Hernández-Blanco, J. (2013). A site planning approach for rural buildings into a landscape using a spatial multi-criteria decision analysis methodology. Land Use Policy, 32, 108–118.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jie, L., Wang, Y., & Shua-xia, Y. (2010). Environmental impact assessment of land use planning in Wuhan city based on ecological suitability analysis. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 2, 185–191. doi:10.1016/j.proenv.2010.10.022.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krugman, P. (1991). Geography and trade. Cambridge: MIT Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leao, S. Z. (2002). Spatial-temporal model for demand and allocation of landfills in growing Urban regions, an unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Melbourne.

  • Leao, S., Bishop, I., & Evans, D. (2004). Simulating urban growth in a developing nation’s region using a CA-based model. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 130(3), 145–158.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee, B. (1973). Requiem for large-scale models. Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 39(3), 163–178.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lu, T., Man-chu, L., & Yong-xue, L. (2009). Study of urban expansion simulation on the condition of ecological environment protection: A case study in Dianchi Basin in Kunming. Urban Remote Sensing Joint Event. doi:10.1109/URS.2009.5137552.

  • Ma, R., Gu, C., Pu, Y., & Ma, X. (2008). Mining the urban sprawl pattern: A case study on Sunan, China. Sensors, 8(10), 6371–6395.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahiny, A. S., & Clarke, K. C. (2012). Guiding SLEUTH land-use/land-cover change modeling using multicriteria evaluation: Towards dynamic sustainable land-use planning. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 39(5), 925–944.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maithani, S. (2010). Application of cellular automata and GIS techniques in urban growth modelling: A new perspective. Institute of Town Planners, India Journal, 7(1), 36–49.

    Google Scholar 

  • Makhdum, F. M. (1993). Fundamental of land use planning. Tehran: University of Tehran press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oguz, H., Klein, A. G., & Srinivasan, R. (2007). Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impact of future policy scenarios on urban land use in the Houston–Galvestone–Brazoria CMSA. Research Journal of Social Science, 2, 72–82.

    Google Scholar 

  • Onsted, J., & Clarke, K. C. (2012). The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration: a comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 26(5), 881–898.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pourebrahim, S., Hadipour, M., & Mokhtar, M. B. (2011). Integration of spatial analysis for land use planning in coastal areas; case of Kuala District, Selangor, Malaysia. Landscape and Urban Planning, 101(1), 84–97.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rafiee, R., Mahiny, A. S., Khorasani, N., Darvishsefat, A., & Danekar, A. (2009). Simulating urban growth in Mashad City, Iran through the SLEUTH model (UGM). Cities, 26(1), 19–26.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Santé, I., García, A. M., Miranda, D., & Crecente, R. (2010). Cellular automata model for the simulation of real-world urban processes: A review and analysis. Landscape and Urban Planning, 96(2), 108–122. doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.03.001.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheng, J., Qing, G., Chun-yu, W., Bei, L., Xiao-dong, L., Guang-ming, Z., et al. (2012). Ecological suitability evaluation for urban growth boundary in red soil hilly areas based on fuzzy theory. Journal of Central South University. doi:10.1007/s11771-012-1151-x.

  • Silva, E. A., & Clarke, K. C. (2002). Calibration of the SLEUTH urban growth model for Lisbon and Porto, Portugal. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 26(6), 525–552.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silva, E. A., & Clarke, K. C. (2005). Complexity, emergence and cellular urban models: lessons learned from applying SLEUTH to two Portuguese metropolitan areas. European Planning Studies, 13(1), 93–115.

    Google Scholar 

  • Singh, A. K. (2003). Modeling landuse lndcover changes using cellular automata in geo-spatial environment. Dissertation, ITC, Netherland.

  • Soares-Filho, B. S., Cerqueira, G. C., & Pennachin, C. L. (2002). DINAMICA- a stochastic cellular automata model designed to simulate the landscape dynamics in an Amazonian colonization frontier. Ecological Modelling, 154(3), 217–235.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stevens, D., & Dragicevic, S. (2007). A GIS-based irregular cellular automata model of land-use change. Environmental and Planning B: Planning and Design, 34(4), 708–724.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sullivan, D. O., & Torrens, P.M. (2000a). Cellular models of urban systems, CASA. Working paper series, paper 22. Available online at: www.casa.ucl.uk (accessed 01 August 2005).

  • Sun, C., Wu, Z., Lv, Z., Yao, N., & Wei, J. (2012). Quantifying different types of urban growth and the change dynamic in Guangzhou using multi-temporal remote sensing data. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. doi:10.1016/j.jag.2011.12.012.

  • Syphard, A. D., Clarke, K. C., & Franklin, J. (2005). Using a cellular automaton model to forecast the effects of urban growth on habitat pattern in southern California. Ecological Complexity, 2, 185–203. doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2004.11.003.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tobler, W. R. (1979). Cellular geography. In S. Gales, & G. Olson (eds), Philosophy in Geography (pp. 339–346). Dortrecht: D. Reidel.

  • Varanka, D. (2001). Modeling urban expansion in the Philadelphia metropolitan area. Available online at: http://mcmcweb.er.usgs.gov/phil/modeling.html (accessed on March 26 March 2002).

  • Verburg, P. H., Soepboer, W., Veldkamp, A., Limpiada, R., Espaldon, V., & Mastura, S. S. A. (2002). Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: The CLUE-S model. Environmental Management, 30(3), 391–405.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, H., He, S., Liu, X., Dai, L., Pan, P., Hong, S., et al. (2012). Simulating urban expansion using a cloud-based cellular automata model: A case study of Jiangxia, Wuhan, China. Landscape and urban planning. 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2012.10.016.

  • Wu, X., Hu, Y., He, H. S., Bu, R., Onsted, J., & Xi, F. (2009). Performance evaluation of the SLEUTH model in the Shenyang metropolitan area of northeastern China. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 14(2), 221–230.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xiang, W. N., & Clarke, K. C. (2003). The use of scenario in land-use planning. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 30(6), 885–909.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu, K., Kong, C., Li, J., Zhang, L., & Wu, C. (2011). Suitability evaluation of urban construction land based on geo-environmental factors of Hangzhou, China. Computers & Geosciences, 37(8), 992–1102.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang, Q., Li, X., & Shi, X. (2008). Cellular automata for simulation land use changes based on support vector machines. Computers & Geosciences, 34(6), 592–602.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang, X., & Lo, C. P. (2003). Modeling urban growth and landscape changes in the Atlanta metropolitan area. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 17(5), 463–488.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Youssef, A. M., Pradhan, B., & Tarabees, E. (2010). Integrated evaluation of urban development suitability based on remote sensing and GIS techniques: Contribution from the analytic hierarchy process. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 4(3–4), 463–473.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yuechen, I., Chunxia, L., Hong, Z., & Xin, G. (2011). Evaluation on the human settlements environment suitability in the three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing based on RS and GIS. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 21(2), 346–358.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to Reza Rafiee who kindly associated in all parts of model execution and to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments to improve this paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

    Sadeq Dezhkam, Bahman Jabbarian Amiri, Ali Asghar Darvishsefat & Yousef Sakieh

Authors
  1. Sadeq Dezhkam
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Bahman Jabbarian Amiri
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Ali Asghar Darvishsefat
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Yousef Sakieh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sadeq Dezhkam.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Dezhkam, S., Amiri, B.J., Darvishsefat, A.A. et al. Simulating the urban growth dimensions and scenario prediction through sleuth model: a case study of Rasht County, Guilan, Iran. GeoJournal 79, 591–604 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-013-9515-9

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-013-9515-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation