Skip to main content
Log in

Probabilistic Methods Applied to Unsaturated Numerical Modeling

  • Original paper
  • Published:
Geotechnical and Geological Engineering Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The numerical modeling of unsaturated soil processes is becoming more prevalent worldwide. Although numerical modeling is becoming increasingly accepted in geotechnical engineering practice, care must be exercised and improper modeling techniques and procedures must be avoided. Many issues such as nodal resolution and imperfect convergence can result in inaccurate solutions. Unfortunately, analyses of highly nonlinear unsaturated soil flow and slope stability models can significantly increase the modeling time required. As a result, there is a trend to reduce the number of model runs. Results are often presented to client as single model runs or simplistic sensitivity analysis. This paper presents methodologies for applying probabilistic methods to unsaturated soils seepage and slope stability analysis models. The focus is on the application of the alternative point estimate method to practical problems in such a way as to minimize the number of model runs. The demonstration of a successful application to a waste rock pile is presented.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Anderson M, Woessner W (2002) Applied groundwater modeling; simulation of flow and advective transport. Academic Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Brooks RH, Corey AT (1964) Hydraulic properties of porous media. Hydrology. Paper No. 3, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, vol 27

  • Clemen RT (1996) Making hard decisions. Duxbury Press, US 664 p

    Google Scholar 

  • El-Ramly H, Morgenstern NR, Cruden DM (2006) Lodalen slide: a probabilistic assessment. Can Geotech J 42:956–968

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fredlund DG, Xing A (1994) Equations for the soil-water characteristic curve. Can Geotech J 31(4):533–546

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fredlund M, Gitirana G, Pham H (2008) A methodology for applying probability theory to unsaturated hydraulic properties as the foundation for seepage analysis, GeoCongress2008, New Orleans, LA, March 9–12

  • Gitirana GFN Jr (2005) Weather-related geo-hazard assessment for railway embankment stability. Ph.D. Thesis. University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, 403 p

  • Li KS (1992) Point estimate method for calculating statistical moments. J Eng Mech 118(7):1506–1511

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mualem Y (1976) A new model for predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated porous media. Water Resour Res 12:513–522

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenblueth E (1975) Point estimates for probability moments. Proc Natl Acad Sci 72(10):3812–3814

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • SoilVision Systems Ltd (2010) SoilVision User’s guide—a Knowledgebased System for Geotechnical Engineers.. Saskatoon, SK, Canada

  • SOILVISION SYSTEMS LTD (2010) SVFLUX—finite element seepage analysis, Users manual, Version 5 (software package) SoilVision Systems Ltd. Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

  • SOILVISION SYSTEMS LTD (2004) SVDYNAMIC—finite element slope stability analysis, Users manual, Version 1 (software package) SoilVision Systems Ltd. Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

  • van Genuchten MT (1980) A closed form equation predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils. Soil Sci Soc Am J 44:892–898

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson GW, Fredlund DG, Barbour SL (1997) The effect of soil suction on evaporative fluxes from soil surfaces. Can Geotech J 34:145–157

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Murray Fredlund.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Fredlund, M., Gitirana, G. Probabilistic Methods Applied to Unsaturated Numerical Modeling. Geotech Geol Eng 29, 217–223 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-011-9391-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-011-9391-3

Keywords

Navigation