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A portfolio optimization model based on information entropy and fuzzy time series

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Abstract

The traditional portfolio models assume securities’ returns are normally distributed and the future distribution of returns is the same as the historical distribution. For the two stringent assumptions, this paper develops two entropy-based portfolio optimization models which are flexible and effective in measuring risk. The second motivation of this paper is to combine the fuzzy time series technique to portfolio optimization. In fact, forecasting securities’ returns distribution is an important issue for portfolio. And among the many forecasting methods, the fuzzy time series technique is more suitable to deal with the fuzzy data in financial data. The empirical results on the historical data of the Stock Exchange in Chinese financial market show effectiveness of the proposed models. Both the entropy based models outperform the traditional ones and the fuzzy time series forecasting model also helps to further improve the actual performance.

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Acknowledgments

This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Grant No. 71171012 and No. 70901019, the training plan of science research of undergraduate of Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China Grant No. 201310010049, Chinese Universities Scientific Fund of Beijing University of Chemical Technology (No. ZZ1319, ZY1321), the National Science and Technology Support Program (No. 2013BAK04B02) and Taft Travel Grants. This work is also supported by Humanity and Social Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of China (No.14YJA790075), Program for Excellent Talents, UIBE.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing, 100029, China

    Rongxi Zhou & Zebin Yang

  2. School of Finance and Banking, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, 100029, China

    Mei Yu

  3. Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, 45221, USA

    Dan A. Ralescu

Authors
  1. Rongxi Zhou
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  2. Zebin Yang
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  3. Mei Yu
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  4. Dan A. Ralescu
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Correspondence to Dan A. Ralescu.

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Zhou, R., Yang, Z., Yu, M. et al. A portfolio optimization model based on information entropy and fuzzy time series. Fuzzy Optim Decis Making 14, 381–397 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10700-015-9206-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10700-015-9206-8

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