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Migration from New-Accession Countries and Duration Expectancy in the EU-15: 2002–2008

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Abstract

European Union (EU) enlargements in 2004 and 2007 were accompanied by increased migration from new-accession to established-member (EU-15) countries. The impacts of these flows depend, in part, on the amount of time that persons from the former countries live in the latter over the life course. In this paper, we develop period estimates of duration expectancy in EU-15 countries among persons from new-accession countries. Using a newly developed set of harmonized Bayesian estimates of migration flows each year from 2002 to 2008 from the Integrated Modelling of European Migration Project, we exploit period age patterns of country-to-country migration and mortality to summarize the average number of years that persons from new-accession countries could be expected to live in EU-15 countries over the life course. In general, the results show that the amount of time that persons from new-accession countries could be expected to live in the EU-15 nearly doubled after 2004.

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Notes

  1. Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia joined the EU in 2004. Bulgaria and Romania joined the EU in 2007. Although the focus of this paper is with EU expansions in 2004 and 2007, Croatia joined the EU in 2013, bringing the total number of new-accession countries to 13.

  2. t sub/superscripts are omitted from the notation below, but are nonetheless implied.

  3. The correlation between our estimates of life expectancy at birth and those provided by the World Bank is 0.93.

  4. An alternative approach might be to summarize medians and quartiles. We summarize means and standard errors because the distributions of the quantities in (1) are not badly skewed and the tails are not especially heavy. Readers can verify this for any/all distributions of interest, as the full set of estimates for each pair of new-accession and EU-15 countries each year from 2002 to 2008 is provided in the online appendix.

  5. The full set of estimates for each pair of new-accession and EU-15 countries each year from 2002 to 2008 is provided in the online appendix.

  6. This is also reflected in the age-specific transition probabilities (not shown).

  7. As a quality check, we increased the number of random draws to 1000 to ensure that our 100 random draws of age-specific country-to-country migration counts for each year capture the range of the full posterior distributions. The resulting distributions are virtually identical.

  8. We constructed similar figures to those shown in Fig. 6 for each pair of new-accession and EU-15 countries. Generally, the degree of uncertainty in our estimates of duration expectancy is relatively more pronounced for country-pairs wherein the destination country is the United Kingdom, which, ultimately, reflects greater uncertainty in counts of age-specific migration to the United Kingdom in the IMEM estimates.

  9. Recall from our earlier discussion that when the model is run for a single birth cohort (i.e., a birth cohort in a single new-accession country), the size of the birth cohort is arbitrary. However, when multiple birth cohorts are simultaneously considered in the same model, it is necessary to adjust model inputs so that the size of each birth cohort is proportional to the observed distribution across countries.

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Acknowledgments

This research is supported by center Grant #R24 HD041023 awarded to the Minnesota Population Center at the University of Minnesota by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, and by research funds awarded to DeWaard by the Life Course Center at the University of Minnesota. The age-specific migration data used in this paper were estimated as part of the Integrated Modelling of European Migration (IMEM) Project, www.imem.cpc.ac.uk, funded by the New Opportunities for Research Funding Agency Co-operation in Europe (NORFACE), 2009–2012. The authors wish to thank the Editor and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology, Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, 909 Social Sciences, 267 19th Ave. South, Minneapolis, MN, 55455, USA

    Jack DeWaard & Jasmine Trang Ha

  2. Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

    James Raymer

  3. School of Social Statistics, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK

    Arkadiusz Wiśniowski

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  1. Jack DeWaard
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Correspondence to Jack DeWaard.

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DeWaard, J., Ha, J.T., Raymer, J. et al. Migration from New-Accession Countries and Duration Expectancy in the EU-15: 2002–2008. Eur J Population 33, 33–53 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-016-9383-3

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