Abstract
Over the past 10 years, the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) has conducted over 150 detailed multi-hazard, multi-infrastructure scenario analyses of a wide range of man-made and natural disasters. Using a model-based implementation of the Department of Homeland Security risk management framework, NISAC analyzes scenarios ranging from extreme-event situational awareness to long-term strategic policy for improved homeland security and resilience to these events. This article describes the essential elements of the NISAC scenario analysis process, the toolkit of subject-matter expertise and models used, with a particular focus on the economics component. An example set of Hurricane Katrina economic-analysis results is used to illustrate basic elements of NISAC economics scenario analysis.
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Notes
CIP policies date back to 1982 with formation of the National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee (NSTAC), followed by Executive Order (E.O.) 13010, “Critical Infrastructure Protection in the Information Age,” and Presidential Decision Directive (PDD)-63, “Protecting America's Critical Infrastructures”.
These are: food and agriculture, banking and finance, chemical, commercial facilities, communications, critical manufacturing, dams, defense industrial base, emergency services, energy, government facilities, healthcare and public health, information technology, national monuments and icons, nuclear reactors, materials and waste, postal and shipping, transportation systems, water. Source: DHS (2012a).
Mesoeconomic thinking asserts that there are important economic structures between, but not reflected in, microeconomics and macroeconomics (the two together do not claim to cover all economics).
This contrasts slightly with the formal definition from the DHS National Infrastructure Protection Plan (DHS 2009), “The multi- or bi-directional reliance of an asset, system, network, or collection thereof, within or across sectors, on input, interaction, or other requirement from other sources in order to function properly.”
Note that these 20 reports are collectively considered to be just one, not 20, of the estimated 150 NISAC scenario analyses conducted to date.
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Sandia is a multi-program laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
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Ehlen, M.A., Vargas, V.N. Multi-hazard, multi-infrastructure, economic scenario analysis. Environ Syst Decis 33, 60–75 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-013-9432-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-013-9432-y