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Time series modelling of respiratory hospital admissions and geometrically weighted distributed lag effects from ambient particulate air pollution within Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

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Abstract

The distributed lag effects of ambient particulate air pollution exposure on respiratory hospital admissions in Kathmandu Valley are modelled using daily time series data. The extended exposure to PM10 is accounted for by assigning weights to daily average PM10 which decline geometrically as the lag period increases in days. Results show that the percent increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospital admissions and respiratory admissions including COPD, asthma, pneumonia, and bronchitis per 10 μg/m3 rise in PM10 are found to be 4.85% for 30 days lag effect, about 15.9% higher than that observed for same-day lag effect and 3.52% for 40 days lag effect, about 28.9% higher than the observed value for same-day lag effect, respectively.

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Acknowledgements

The author is grateful to the Nepal Health Research Council (NHRC), Kathmandu, Nepal, for initiating the project ‘Development of procedures and assessment of environmental burden of disease of local levels from major environmental risk factors’, and the World Health Organization (WHO/Nepal) for providing fund and support for the project. Sincere thanks are due to Mr. Ram Hari Khanal, Coordinator, Sunil Babu Khatri, research assistant, and Shivendra Thakur, research assistant of the project.

Deep appreciation and special thanks are extended to Dr. Mrigendra Lal Singh, Professor, Central Department of Statistics, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Nepal, and Dr. Iswori Lal Shrestha, Director, Laboratory and Consulting, Nepal Environmental and Scientific Services (P) Ltd. (NESS), Kathmandu, Nepal, for their invaluable guidance and for sharing their knowledge and experiences in the author’s research work.

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Correspondence to Srijan Lal Shrestha.

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Shrestha, S.L. Time series modelling of respiratory hospital admissions and geometrically weighted distributed lag effects from ambient particulate air pollution within Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Environ Model Assess 12, 239–251 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-006-9071-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-006-9071-5

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