Abstract
What drives the prices of arms and ammunition sold at illicit markets? Do the prices of illegal arms soar during episodes of marked insecurity, such as conflict onset? This article seeks to advance knowledge on the dynamics and determinants of weapons prices through the quantitative analysis of illicit arms market price data in Lebanon for the period February 2011 to September 2012. The article also examines the relationship between arms and ammunition prices in Lebanon, and reported conflict fatalities in Syria, as the period under study overlapped with the onset of conflict in the latter country. Key results include strong, statistically-significant correlations between the prices of arms and the prices of ammunition in Lebanon, as well as between the prices of arms and ammunition in Lebanon and reported conflict fatalities in neighbouring Syria. These findings highlight the value of monitoring illicit arms market prices, including prices for a diverse range of weapons and ammunition, to improve our understanding of both illicit markets and conflict dynamics. The strong correlations observed in the article also suggest that crowdsourcing methodologies used by organisations monitoring killings during the Syrian conflict can effectively capture variations in conflict intensity over time.
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Notes
This study used global indices of government effectiveness and democratic accountability to measure governments’ regulations generally and, by extension, their ability to implement small arms control legislation (Killicoat 2007, 264, 266).
The demand side of the model was adapted from Brauer and Muggah (2006).
See for instance, Geneva Declaration Secretariat (2011, 71), on the ongoing debates about and shortcomings of existing methodologies to estimate conflict-related deaths.
In Libya, rifles such as the FN FAL sold for just USD 500–800 in February 2012, a sharp decrease when compared with the thousands of dollars it was worth at the height of the 2011 conflict (Spleeters 2012a, 16–17). In contrast, more concealable handguns such as the Browning HP pistol sold for USD 2400–3200 in Libya in February 2012, even though they were hardly in demand at all in 2011 (Jenzen-Jones 2013, 15; Spleeters 2012a, 17).
FN FAL-pattern rifles, for instance, have been produced in Belgium and as many as seven other countries. See Spleeters (2013, 1)
See Price et al. (2013) for an analysis of discrepancies and double-counting between seven sources of fatality data on Syria, including VDC.
A standardized Z score indicates by how many standard deviations an observation is above or below the mean.
A preliminary review of small calibre ammunition documented in Syria suggests 7.62x39mm is the calibre most used in the recent conflict (Jenzen-Jones 2014).
The fact that 12.7 x 108 mm ammunition prices are the only variable not correlated to any conflict fatality indicator also stands out, although it is unclear why that is the case. It seems to be due to a sharp decrease in the price of 12.7 x 108 mm ammunition in April 2011 after the particularly high prices (more than USD 4 per round) reported in February and March 2011. Probing the issue with the arms dealers yielded no correction of the data or plausible explanation for the unusual decrease. The prices for this ammunition were more stable after April 2011, with an increase from March–April 2012, which is more consistent with the general patterns observed with the other materiel under review (Table 1).
Correspondence with Taha Kass-Hout, Syria Tracker (a project of the Humanitarian Tracker), 13 July 2013.
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Florquin, N. Arms Prices and Conflict Onset: Insights from Lebanon and Syria. Eur J Crim Policy Res 20, 323–341 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10610-014-9244-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10610-014-9244-8