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A mechanistic approach reveals non linear effects of climate warming on mussels throughout the Mediterranean sea

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Abstract

There is a dire need to forecast the ecological impacts of global climate change at scales relevant to policy and management. We used three interconnected models (climatic, biophysical and energetics) to estimate changes in growth, reproduction and mortality risk by 2050, for three commercially and ecologically important bivalves at 51 sites in the Mediterranean Sea. These results predict highly variable responses (both positive and negative) in the time to reproductive maturity and in the risk of lethality among species and sites that do not conform to simple latitudinal gradients, and which would be undetectable by methods focused only on lethal limits and/or range boundaries.

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Acknowledgments

PRIN TETRIS 2010 grant n. 2010PBMAXP_003 (G. Sarà), funded by the Italian Minister of Research and University supported this study. B.H. was supported by a grant from NASA (NNX11AP77). We thank Erika M.D. Porporato for her help with GIS and all collaborators and students from the EEB lab at UNIPA for their efforts during the experimental phase.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università di Palermo, Viale delle Scienze Ed. 16, 90128, Palermo, Italy

    Valeria Montalto, Alessandro Rinaldi & Gianluca Sarà

  2. IAMC-CNR, Via G. da Verrazzano, 17, 91014, Castellammare del Golfo, TP, Italy

    Valeria Montalto & Alessandro Rinaldi

  3. Department of Marine and Environmental Sciences, Northeastern University, Nahant, MA, USA

    Brian Helmuth

  4. World Meteorological Organization, 7 bis, Avenue de la Paix, 2300, Genève, Switzerland

    Paolo M Ruti

  5. ENEA, Energy & Environment Modeling Unit, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123, Santa Maria di Galeria, Rome, Italy

    Alessandro Dell’Aquila

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  1. Valeria Montalto
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Correspondence to Valeria Montalto.

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VM conceived the idea, performed modelling work, analysed output data and led the writing; GS & BH conceived the idea, developed biophysical models and contributed to writing; PR & AD provided climate data; AR performed modelling work. All authors gave final approval for publication.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Montalto, V., Helmuth, B., Ruti, P.M. et al. A mechanistic approach reveals non linear effects of climate warming on mussels throughout the Mediterranean sea. Climatic Change 139, 293–306 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1780-4

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