Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Exploring the effect of heat on stated intentions to move

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Climate change is leading to more frequent and longer heat waves and in many places, such as large parts of Australia, to an increase in average temperatures. Rising temperatures can reduce well-being and influence decisions about residency and mobility among people. This study assesses the intentions of a nationally representative sample of working-age people living in Australia to move to somewhere cooler than where they currently live as a response to increasing heat. We found that 11 % of respondents intend to move away from their current place or residence because of increasing temperatures. We also found that men are more likely to intend to move, as are those who feel often stressed by heat, those with a generally high level of mobility, and those who are worried about climate change. Age does not explain movement intentions although it has been found that young people are generally the most mobile, and then those in retirement age again. This means that people formerly expected to be rather immobile might be more likely to intend to move when they feel the local climate has become intolerably hot. Planning for infrastructure and service provision, which has a long lead time, will therefore need adjustment to account for the likely effects of climate change on mobility decisions and settlement patterns.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. We use mobility as a broader term covering all types of movements, such as migration and internal movements, residential and temporary (for mobility frameworks, see, for instance, Zelinsky 1971, or Sheller and Urry 2006).

References

  • ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics) (2012) Census of population and housing - 2011. Data generated using ABS table builder. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra

    Google Scholar 

  • Adams H (2016) Why populations persist: mobility, place attachment and climate change. Popul Environ 37:429–448

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ajzen I (1991) The theory of planned behaviour. Organ Behav Hum Dec 50:179–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Australian Government (2015) Our north, our future: white paper on developing northern Australia. Australian Government, Canberra. http://northernaustralia.infrastructure.gov.au/white-paper. Accessed 12 October 2015

    Google Scholar 

  • Banwell C, Dixon J, Bambrick H, Edwards F, Kjellstrom T (2012) Socio-cultural reflections on heat in Australia with implications for health and climate change adaptation. Glob Health Action 5. doi:10.3402/gha.v5i0.19277

  • Bardsley DK, Hugo GJ (2010) Migration and climate change: examining thresholds of change to guide effective adaptation decision-making. Popul Environ 32:238–262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnett G, Beaty RM, Meyers J, Chen D, McFallan S (2015) Pathways for adaptation of low-income housing to extreme heat. In: Palutikof JP, Boulter SL, Barnett J, Rissik D (eds) Applied studies in climate adaptation. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, pp. 364–371

    Google Scholar 

  • Biddle N, Hunter B (2006) An analysis of the internal migration of indigenous and non-indigenous Australians. Australian J Lab Econ 9:321–341

    Google Scholar 

  • Black R, Adger WN, Arnell NW, Dercon S, Geddes A, Thomas D (2011) The effect of environmental change on human migration. Glob Environ Chang 21:S3–S11

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Böheim R, Taylor MP (2007) From the dark end of the street to the bright side of the road? The wage returns to migration in Britain. Labour Econ 14:99–117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) (2014) State of the climate 2014. BoM and CSIRO, Canberra

    Google Scholar 

  • Carson D, Coe K, Zander K, Garnett ST (2010) Does the type of job matter? Recruitment to Australia’s northern territory. Employee Relat 32:121–137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) (2015) Emergency Events Database EM-DAT, Brussels http://www.emdat.be. Accessed 12 October 2015

  • Christie M, Greatorex J (2004) Yolngu life in the northern territory of Australia: the significance of community and social capital. Asia Pac J Public Health 26:55–69

    Google Scholar 

  • Coates L, Haynes K, O’Brien J, McAneney J, Dimer de Oliveira F (2014) Exploring 167 years of vulnerability: an examination of extreme heat events in Australia 1844–2010. Environ Sci Pol 42:33–44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coulter R, Scott J (2015) What motivates residential mobility? Re-examining self-reported reasons for desiring and making residential moves. Popul Space Place 21:354–371

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Groot C, Mulder CH, Das M, Manting D (2011) Life events and the gap between intention to move and actual mobility. Environ Plan A 43:48–66

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Jong GF (1999) Choice process in migration behaviour. In: Pandit K, Withers S (eds) Migration and restructuring in the united sates. Rowman and Littlefield, Lanham, pp. 273–293

    Google Scholar 

  • de Jong G, Root BD, Gardner RW, Fawcett JT, Abad RG (1985) Migration intentions and behaviour: decision making in a rural Philippine province. Popul Environ 8:41–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Sherbinin A, Castro M, Gemenne F, Cernea MM, Adamo S, Fearnside PM, Krieger G, Lahmani S, Oliver-Smith A, Pankhurst A, Scudder T, Singer B, Tan Y, Wannier G, Boncour P, Ehrhart C, Hugo G, Pandey B, Shi G (2011) Preparing for resettlement associated with climate change. Science 28:456–457

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deutsche Bank (2015) The random walk: mapping the world’s prices. Hong Kong. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/2015/04/DB_RandomWalk_2015-04-14_0900b8c0898020b1-1.pdf. Accessed 12 October 2015

  • Dong W, Liu Z, Liao H, Tang Q, Li X (2015) New climate and socio-economic scenarios for assessing global human health challenges due to heat risk. Clim Chang 130:505–518

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fishbein M, Ajzen I (1975) Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: an introduction to theory and research. Addison-Wesley, Reading

    Google Scholar 

  • Fishbein M, Ajzen I (2010) Predicting and changing behavior: the reasoned actin approach. Taylor & Francis, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Geist C, McManus P (2008) Geographical mobility over the life course: motivations and implications. Popul Space Place 14:283–303

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gomez F, Gil L, Jabaloyes J (2004) Experimental investigation on the thermal comfort in the city: relationship with the green areas, interaction with the urban microclimate. Build Environ 39:1077–1086

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Graham S, Barnett J, Fincher R, Hurlimann A, Mortreux C (2014) Local values for fairer adaptation to sea-level rise: a typology of residents and their lived values in lakes entrance, Australia. Glob Environ Chang 29:41–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gray C, Mueller V (2012) Drought and population mobility in rural Ethiopia. World Dev 40:134–145

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greenhill M, Leviston Z, Leonard R, Walker I (2014) Assessing climate change beliefs: response effects of question wording and response alternatives. Public Underst Sci 23:947–965

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hall D, Garnett S, Barnes T, Stevens M (2007) Drivers of professional mobility in the northern territory: dental professionals. Rural Remote Health 7:655

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanna E, Kjellstrom T, Bennett C, Dear K (2011) Climate change and rising heat: population health implications for working people in Australia. Asia Pac J Public Health 23:14–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hugo G (2011) Future demographic change and its interactions with migration and climate change. Glob Environ Chang 21:S21–S33

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iizumi A, Surjan A (2011) Initiatives towards reducing the impacts of the urban heat island in Tokyo. In: Rosenzweig C, Solecki WD, Hammer SA, Mehrotra S (eds) Climate change and cities: first assessment report of the urban climate change research network. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 240–241

    Google Scholar 

  • King D, Bird D, Haynes K, Boon H, Cottrell A, Millar J, Okada T, Box P, Keogh D, Thomas M (2014) Voluntary relocation as an adaptation strategy to extreme weather events. Int J Disaster Risk Reduction 8:83–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koppel Maldonado J, Shearer C, Bronen R, Peterson K, Lazrus H (2013) The impact of climate change on tribal communities in the US: displacement, relocation, and human rights. Clim Chang 120:601–614

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kovats RS, Hajat S (2008) Heat stress and public health: a critical review. Annu Rev Public Health 29:41–55

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Landale N, Guest A (1985) Constraints, satisfaction and residential mobility: Speare’s model reconsidered. Demography 22:199–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lu M (1998) Analyzing migration decisionmaking: relationships between residential satisfaction, mobility intentions, and moving behavior. Environ Plan A 30:1473–1495

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manski CF (1990) The use of intentions data to predict behavior: a best-case analysis. J Am Stat Assoc 85:934–940

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marshall NA, Park SE, Adger WN, Brown K, Howden SM (2012) Transformational capacity and the influence of place and identity. Environ Res Lett 7:034022

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Massey DS, Axinn WG, Ghimire DJ (2010) Environmental change and out-migration: evidence from Nepal. Popul Environ 32:109–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCubbin S, Smit B, Pearce T (2015) Where does climate fit? Vulnerability to climate change in the context of multiple stressors in Funafuti, Tuvalu. Glob Environ Chang 30:43–55

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McLeman RA, Ploeger SK (2012) Soil and its influence on rural drought migration: insights from depression-era southwestern Saskatchewan, Canada. Popul Environ 33:304–332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McLeman R, Smit B (2006) Migration as an adaptation to climate change. Clim Chang 76:31–53

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McSweeney K, Coomes OT (2011) Climate-related disaster opens a window of opportunity for rural poor in northeastern Honduras. P Natl Acad Sci 108:5203–5208

  • Min S-K, Cai W, Whetton P (2013) Influence of climate variability on seasonal extremes over Australia. J Geophys Res-Atmos 118:643–654

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mortreux C, Barnett J (2009) Climate change, migration and adaptation in Funafuti, Tuvalu. Glob Environ Chang 19:105–112

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mubaya CP, Njuki J, Mutsvangwa EP, Mugabe FT, Nanja D (2012) Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and Zambia. J Environ Manag 102:9–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mueller V, Gray C, Kosec K (2014) Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan. Nat Clim Chang 4:182–185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mulder CH (2007) The family context and residential choice: a challenge for new research. Popul Space Place 13:265–278

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nawrotzk RJ, Brenkert-Smith H, Hunter LM, Champ PA (2013) Wildfire-migration dynamics: lessons from Colorado’s Fourmile canyon fire. Soc Nat Resour 27:215–225

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neumann K, Hilderink H (2015) Opportunities and challenges for investigating the environment-migration nexus. Hum Ecol 43:309–322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ocello C, Petrucci A, Testa M, Vignoli D (2015) Environmental aspects of internal migration in Tanzania. Popul Environ 37:99–108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peiffer JJ, Abbiss CR (2013) Thermal stress in north western Australian iron ore mining staff. Ann Occup Hyg 57:519–527

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Perch-Nielsen SL, Bättig MB, Imboden D (2008) Exploring the link between climate change and migration. Clim Chang 91:375–393

  • Perkins S, Alexander L (2013) On the measurement of heat waves. J Clim 26:4500–4517

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Petheram L, Zander KK, Campbell B, High D, Stacey N (2010) ‘strange changes’: indigenous perspectives of climate change and adaptation in NE Arnhem land (Australia). Glob Environ Chang 20:681–692

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Porritt SM, Cropper PC, Shao L, Goodier C (2012) Ranking interventions to reduce dwelling overheating during heat waves. Energ Buildings 55:16–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Renaud FG, Dun O, Warner K, Bogardi J (2011) A decision framework for environmentally induced migration. Int Migr 49:e5–e29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rise J, Thompson M, Verplanken B (2003) Measuring implementation intentions in the context of the theory of planned behavior. Scand J Psychol 44:87–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rose DB (1999) Indigenous ecologies and an ethic of connection. In: Low N (ed) Global ethics and environment. Routledge, London, pp. 175–187

    Google Scholar 

  • Rossi PH (1955) Why families move. Free Press, Glencoe

    Google Scholar 

  • Saman W, Pullen S, Boland J (2015) How to cope with heat waves in the home. In: Palutikof JP, Boulter SL, Barnett J, Rissik D (eds) Applied studies in climate adaptation. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, pp. 354–363

    Google Scholar 

  • Sandu D, de Jong GF (1996) Migration in market and democracy transition: migration intentions and behaviour in Romania. Popul Res Policy Rev 15:437–457

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheller M, Urry J (2006) The new mobilities paradigm. Environ Plan A 38:207–226

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith KR, Woodward A, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chadee DD, Honda Y, et al. (2014) Human health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits. In: Field CB, et al. (eds) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 709–754

  • Speare A (1974) Residential satisfaction as an intervening variable in residential mobility. Demography 11:173–188

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spector JT, Krenz J, Rauser E, Bonauto DK (2014) Heat-related illness in Washington state agriculture and forestry sectors. Am J Ind Med 57:881–895

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Steffen W, Hughes L, Pearce A (2014) Heatwaves: hotter, longer, more often. Public Climate Council of Australia Limited. http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/7be174fe8c32ee1f3632d44e2cef501a.pdf. Accessed 12 October 2015

  • Stone AA, Bachrach CA, Jobe JB, Kurtzman HS, Cain VS (2000) The science of self-report: implications for research and practice. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Mahwah

    Google Scholar 

  • Tacoli C (2009) Crisis or adaptation? Migration and climate change in a context of high mobility. Environ Urban 21:513–525

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor J (1997) The contemporary demography of indigenous Australians. J Aust Pop Ass 14:77–114

    Google Scholar 

  • Tranter BK, Booth KI (2015) Scepticism in a changing climate: a cross-national study. Glob Environ Chang 33:154–164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turhan E, Zografos C, Kallis G (2015) Adaptation as biopolitics: why state policies in Turkey do not reduce the vulnerability of seasonal agricultural workers to climate change. Glob Environ Chang 31:296–306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Dalen HP, Henkens K (2008) Emigration intentions: mere words or true plans? explaining international migration intentions and behavior. CentER Discussion Paper 2008–60, Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University

  • Warner K, Afifi T (2014) Where the rain falls: evidence from 8 countries on how vulnerable households use migration to manage the risk of rainfall variability and food insecurity. Clim Dev 6:1–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • WMO, WHO (2015) Heatwaves and health: guidance on warning-system development. World Meteorological Organization and World Health Organization. http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/heatwaves-health-guidance/en. Accessed 12 Octobert 2015

  • Yu C, Hien WN (2006) Thermal benefits of city parks. Energ Buildings 38:105–120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zander KK, Petheram L, Garnett ST (2013) Stay or leave? - potential climate change adaptation strategies among aboriginal people in coastal communities in northern Australia. Nat Hazards 67:591–609

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zander KK, Botzen WJW, Oppermann E, Kjellstrom T, Garnett ST (2015) Heat stress causes substantial labour productivity loss in Australia. Nat Clim Chang 5:647–651

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zelinsky W (1971) The hypothesis of the mobility transition. Geogr Rev 61:219–249

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author contributions

KKZ and STG had the initial idea for the study. KKZ and STG designed the study and KKZ was responsible for data collection and analysis. AK provided conceptual advice and helped with interpretation of data. KKZ and STG wrote the first draft of the paper and all three authors have reviewed the manuscript critically for important intellectual content. All authors have given final approval of this version to be published.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University, Ellengowan Drive, Darwin, Northern Territory,, 0909, Australia

    Kerstin K. Zander

  2. School of Health, Charles Darwin University, Ellengowan Drive, Darwin, Northern Territory,, 0909, Australia

    Akhilesh Surjan

  3. Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Ellengowan Drive, Darwin, Northern Territory,, 0909, Australia

    Stephen T. Garnett

Authors
  1. Kerstin K. Zander
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Akhilesh Surjan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Stephen T. Garnett
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kerstin K. Zander.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(PDF 849 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zander, K.K., Surjan, A. & Garnett, S.T. Exploring the effect of heat on stated intentions to move. Climatic Change 138, 297–308 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1727-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1727-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation