Erratum to: Climatic Change (2015) 130:519–528

DOI 10.1007/s10584-015-1371-9

The third sentence of the second paragraph of section 3.2 should read (correction in bold):

The resulting estimated effect of seasonal variation in temperature was tiny, \( \widehat{\beta}=4.63\times 1{0}^{-4} \), p = .881, 95 % CI [−0.006, 0.007].

Furthermore, Tables 2, 3 and 4 in the Electronic Supplementary Material (ESM) were numbered incorrectly. The corrected ESM is included with the online version of this Erratum.