Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

We analyze the local and remote impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the Amazon and La Plata basins of South America (SA) in an ensemble of four 21st century projections (1970–2100, RCP8.5 scenario) with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by the HadGEM, GFDL and MPI global climate models (GCMs) over the SA CORDEX domain. Two RegCM4 configurations are used, one employing the CLM land surface and the Emanuel convective schemes, and one using the BATS land surface and Grell (over land) convection schemes. First, we find considerable sensitivity of the precipitation change signal to both the driving GCM and the RegCM4 physics schemes (with the latter even greater than the first), highlighting the pronounced uncertainty of regional projections over the region. However, some improvements in the simulation of the annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and La Plata basins is found when using RegCM4, and some consistent change signals across the experiments are found. One is a tendency towards an extension of the dry season over central SA deriving from a late onset and an early retreat of the SA monsoon. The second is a dipolar response consisting of reduced precipitation over the broad Amazon and Central Brazil region and increased precipitation over the La Plata basin and central Argentina. An analysis of the relative influence on the change signal of local soil-moisture feedbacks and remote effects of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the Niño 3.4 region indicates that the former is prevalent over the Amazon basin while the latter dominates over the La Plata Basin. Also, the soil moisture feedback has a larger role in RegCM4 than in the GCMs.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Carril AF, Menendez CG, Remedio ARC (2012) Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America. Clim Dyn 39:2747–2768

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cherchi A, Carril AF, MenĂ©ndez CG, Zamboni L (2013) La Plata Basin precipitation variability in spring: role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments. Clim Dyn 1–18. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1768-y

  • Chou SC, Nunes AMB, Cavalcanti IAF (2000) Extended range forecasts over South America using the regional eta model. J Geophys Res 105:10147–10160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christensen JH et al (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 847–940

    Google Scholar 

  • Coppola E, Giorgi F, Raffaele F et al (2014) Present and future climatologies in the Phase I CREMA experiment. Clim Chang. This issue

  • da Rocha RP, Morales CA, Cuandra SP, Ambrizzi T (2009) Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: an evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations. J Geophys Res 114:D10108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • da Rocha RP, Cuadra SV, Reboita MS, Kruger LF, Ambrizzi T, Krusche N (2012) Effects of RegCM3 parameterizations on simulated rainy season over South America. Clim Res 52:253–265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dickinson RE, Henderson-Sellers A, Kennedy PJ (1993) Biosphere—atmosphere transfer scheme, BATS: version 1E as coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model. Technical Note NCAR/TN—387 + STR, 72p

  • Dirmeyer PA, Schlosser CA, Brubaker KL (2009) Precipitation, recycling and land memory: an integrated analysis. J Meteorol 10:278–288

    Google Scholar 

  • Eltahir EAB, Bras RL (1994) Precipitation recycling in the Amazon basin. Q J R Meteorol Soc 120:861–880

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA, Zivkovic-Rothman M (1999) Development and evaluation of a convection scheme for use in climate models. J Atmos Sci 56:1766–1782

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Foley JA, Botta A, Coe MT, Costa MH (2002) El Nino Southern Oscillation and the climate, ecosystems and rivers of Amazonia. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 16:1132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Foley J, Asner G, Costa MH et al (2007) Amazonia revealed: forest degradation and loss of ecosystem goods and services in the Amazon Basin. Front Ecol Environ 5:25–32

  • Fu R, Zhu B, Dickinson RE (1998) How do atmosphere and land surface influence seasonal changes of convection in the tropical Amazon? J Clim 12:1306–1321

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F (2014) The Phase I CORDEX RegCM hyper-Matrix (CREMA) experiment. Introduction to the special issue. Clim Chang. This issue

  • Giorgi F, Bi X (2005) Updated regional precipitation and temperature changes for the 21st century from ensembles of recent AOGCM simulations. Geophys Res Lett 32, L21715

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Mearns LO (1999) Introduction to special section: regional climate modeling revisited. J Geophys Res 104:6335–6352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar G (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. WMO Bull 58:175–183

    Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Coppola E, Solmon F et al (2012) RegCM4: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains. Clim Res 52:7–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Coppola E, Raffaele F et al (2014) Changes in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes in the CREMA ensemble projections. Clim Chang. This issue

  • Grell GA (1993) Prognostic evaluation of assumptions used by cumulus parameterizations. Mon Weather Rev 121:764–787

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grimm AM, Ambrizzi T (2009) Teleconnections into South America from the tropics and extratropics on interannual and intraseasonal timescales. In: Vimeux F, Sylvestre F, Khodri M (eds) Past climate variability in South America and Surrounding Regions: from the last glacial maximum to the Holocene, Developments in Paleoenvironmental Research. Springer, Netherlands, pp 159–191

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Grimm AM, Ferraz SET, Gomes J (1998) Precipitation anomalies in southern Brazil associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J Clim 11:2863–2880

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koster R, Dirmeyer P, Guo Z et al (2004) Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science 305(5687):1138–1140. doi:10.1126/science. 1100217

  • KrĂĽger F, da Rocha R, Reboita M, Ambrizzi T (2012) RegCM3 nested in HadAM3 scenarios A2 and B2: projected changes in extratropical cyclogenesis, temperature and precipitation over the South Atlantic Ocean. Clim Chang 113:599–621

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Malhi Y, Roberts JT, Betts RA et al (2008) Climate change, deforestation and the fate of the Amazon. Science 319:169–172

  • Marengo JA, Ambrizzi T, da Rocha RP, Alves LM, Cuadra SV, Valverde MC, Torres RR, Santos DC, Ferraz SET (2010) Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models. Clim Dyn 35:1073–1097

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mariotti L, Coppola E, Sylla MB, Giorgi F, Piani C (2011) Regional climate model simulation of projected 21st century climate change over an all-Africa domain: comparison analysis of nested and driving model results. J Geophys Res 116, D15111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mariotti L, Diallo I, Coppola E, Giorgi F (2014) Seasonal and intraseasonal changes of African monsoon climates in 21st century CORDEX projections. Clim Chang. This issue

  • Meehl GA, Teng H, Branstator G (2006) Future changes of El Niño in two global coupled climate models. Clim Dyn 26:549–566

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MenĂ©ndez C, de Castro M, Sorensson A, Boulanger JF (2010) CLARIS project: towards climate downscaling in South America. Meteorol Z 19:357–362

  • Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25:693–712

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moss R, Edmonds J, Hibbard K et al (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756

  • Notaro M, Liu Z (2008) Statistical and dynamical assessment of vegetation feedbacks on climate over the boreal forest. Clim Dyn 31:691–712

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nuñez MN, Solman S, CabrĂ© MF (2009) Regional climate change experiments over Southern South America. II: climate change scenarios in the late twenty first century. Clim Dyn 32:1081–1095

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Orlowsky B, Seneviratne SI (2010) Statistical analyses of land atmosphere feedbacks and their possible pitfalls. J Clim 23:3918–3932

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pal JS, Giorgi F, Bi X et al (2007) Regional climate modeling for the developing world: the ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:1395–1409

  • Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 115:1606–1626

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1989) Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation. J Clim 2:268–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seneviratne SI, LĂĽthi D, Litschi M, Schär C (2006) Land atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature 443:205–209

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seth A, Rauscher SA, Carmago SJ, Qian JH, Pal JS (2006) RegCM3 regional climatologies using reanalysis and ECHAM global model driving fields. Clim Dyn 28:461–480

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seth A, Rojas M, Rauscher SA (2010) CMIP3 projected changes in the annual cycle of the South American Monsoon. Clim Chang 98:331–357

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solman SA (2013) Regional climate modeling over South America: a review. Advances in Meteorology, p 1–13

  • Solman SA, Sanchez E, Samuelsson P et al (2013) Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: model performance and uncertainties. Clim Dyn 1–19. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1667-2

  • Sörensson AA, MenĂ©ndez CG (2011) Summer soil-precipitation coupling in South America. Tellus Ser A Dyn Meteorol Oceanogr 63:56–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sörensson AA, MenĂ©ndez CG, Samuelsson P, WillĂ©n U, Hansson U (2010a) Soil-precipitation feedbacks during the South American Monsoon as simulated by a regional climate model. Clim Chang 98:429–447

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sörensson AA, MenĂ©ndez C, Ruscica G et al (2010b) Projected precipitation changes in South America. A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS. Meteorol Z 19:347–355

  • Tawfik AB, Steiner AL (2011) The role of soil ice in land–atmosphere coupling over the United States: a soil moisture precipitation winter feedback mechanism. J Geophys Res 116, D02113

    Google Scholar 

  • Vera C, Higgins W, Amador J et al (2006) Toward a unified view of the American monsoon systems. J Clim 19:4977–5000

  • Zeng N, Yoon JH, Marengo JA, Subramaniam A, Nobre CA, Mariotti A, Neelin JD (2008) Causes and impacts of the 2005 Amazon drought. Environ Res Lett 3:014002

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The first author would like to acknowledge financial support from Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientĂ­fico e TecnolĂłgico (CNPq), Brazil (Proc. 155700/2010-3) and Fapesp GoAmazon (Proc. 2013/50521-7). This work has been partially funded by the Project NextData of the Italian Ministry for Education, University and Research, and the Italian Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of SĂŁo Paulo, SĂŁo Paulo, Brazil

    Marta Llopart & Rosmeri P. da Rocha

  2. Earth System Physics, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy

    Erika Coppola & Filippo Giorgi

  3. Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation–Embrapa, National Temperate Agriculture Research Centre, Pelotas, Brazil

    Santiago V. Cuadra

Authors
  1. Marta Llopart
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Erika Coppola
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Filippo Giorgi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Rosmeri P. da Rocha
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Santiago V. Cuadra
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Marta Llopart.

Additional information

This article is part of a Special Issue on “The Phase I CORDEX RegCM4 Experiment MAtrix (CREMA)” edited by Filippo Giorgi, William Gutowski, and Ray W. Arritt.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Table S1

(DOCX 18 kb)

Figure S1

(DOCX 52 kb)

Figure S2

(DOCX 3715 kb)

Figure S3

(DOCX 4067 kb)

Figure S4

(DOCX 4762 kb)

Figure S5

(DOCX 4856 kb)

Figure S6

(DOCX 9700 kb)

Figure S7

(DOCX 9110 kb)

Figure S8

(DOCX 7223 kb)

Figure S9

(DOCX 7112 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Llopart, M., Coppola, E., Giorgi, F. et al. Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins. Climatic Change 125, 111–125 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1140-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1140-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation