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Divergence of the potential invasion range of emerald ash borer and its host distribution in North America under climate change

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Abstract

Climate change is likely to induce range divergence of invasive herbivore insects and native host trees given their different response rates to temperature increase. In this study we used the invasion of emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire), which is host-specific to ash (Fraxinus spp.), to demonstrate the significant implications of this climate change induced insect-host divergence for management of invasive species. The least constrained climatic limits of EAB were derived from its native range in East Asia, then projected to North America under the current and future climate conditions, and finally compared with the assumedly static ash distribution. Results suggest that the divergence between the invasion range of EAB and the distribution of ash in North America is likely to enlarge as climate change proceeds. In this case, many original ash stands could remain intact in the southern range, possibly forming refugia of the host species. The realization of this prediction, however, requires that the spread of EAB be reduced by continued management effort to allow climate change to take effect in time. Our study highlights the important role climate change has in the course of biological invasion and herbivore-host dynamics, which provides key information for continental scale pest risk prediction and strategic planning.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Jonathan Phillips and John Cox for helpful comments and editorial support. Jonathan Lelito (USDA-APHIS) provided valuable information on the up to date development of EAB ecophysiology research. Douglas A. Bopp (USDA-APHIS) provided historical EAB infested county maps Erin Bullas-Appleton (Canadian Food Inspection Agency) also provided EAB distribution maps in Canada. We also thank the three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. This study was partially supported by a NSF Grant (No. 1241932).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of Kentucky, 817 Patterson Office Tower, Lexington, KY, 40506, USA

    Liang Liang

  2. Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, 221E Pfendler Bldg., 715 West State St., West Lafayette, IN, 47907, USA

    Songlin Fei

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  1. Liang Liang
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Correspondence to Liang Liang.

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Liang, L., Fei, S. Divergence of the potential invasion range of emerald ash borer and its host distribution in North America under climate change. Climatic Change 122, 735–746 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1024-9

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