Article

Climatic Change

, Volume 119, Issue 2, pp 479-494

Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges

  • David L. McCollumAffiliated withInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInstitute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis Email author 
  • , Volker KreyAffiliated withInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • , Keywan RiahiAffiliated withInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInstitute of Thermal Engineering, Graz University of Technology
  • , Peter KolpAffiliated withInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • , Arnulf GrublerAffiliated withInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisSchool of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University
  • , Marek MakowskiAffiliated withInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisSystems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences
  • , Nebojsa NakicenovicAffiliated withInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInstitute of Energy Systems and Electric Drives, Vienna University of Technology

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Abstract

This paper assesses three key energy sustainability objectives: energy security improvement, climate change mitigation, and the reduction of air pollution and its human health impacts. We explain how the common practice of narrowly focusing on singular issues ignores potentially enormous synergies, highlighting the need for a paradigm shift toward more holistic policy approaches. Our analysis of a large ensemble of alternate energy-climate futures, developed using MESSAGE, an integrated assessment model, shows that stringent climate change policy offers a strategic entry point along the path to energy sustainability in several dimensions. Concerted decarbonization efforts can lead to improved air quality, thereby reducing energy-related health impacts worldwide: upwards of 2–32 million fewer disability-adjusted life years in 2030, depending on the aggressiveness of the air pollution policies foreseen in the baseline. At the same time, low-carbon technologies and energy-efficiency improvements can help to further the energy security goals of individual countries and regions by promoting a more dependable, resilient, and diversified energy portfolio. The cost savings of these climate policy synergies are potentially enormous: $100–600 billion annually by 2030 in reduced pollution control and energy security expenditures (0.1–0.7 % of GDP). Novel aspects of this paper include an explicit quantification of the health-related co-benefits of present and future air pollution control policies; an analysis of how future constraints on regional trade could influence energy security; a detailed assessment of energy expenditures showing where financing needs to flow in order to achieve the multiple energy sustainability objectives; and a quantification of the relationships between different fulfillment levels for energy security and air pollution goals and the probability of reaching the 2 °C climate target.