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Multiproxy reconstructions of climate for three sites in the Canadian High Arctic using Cassiope tetragona

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Abstract

We developed calibration models and reconstructed climate for sites in the central and eastern Canadian High Arctic using dendroclimatological and stable isotope analysis techniques on the dwarf-shrub, Cassiope tetragona. Our results may suggest complex temporal and spatial patterns of climate change in the region over the past century. For sites on Bathurst and Devon Islands, we reconstructed fall mean and June–July mean temperature using multiple linear regression analysis that explained 54 % and 40 % of the variance, respectively. The predictor variables included annual growth, annual production of leaves, flower buds and annual δ¹³C values for the Bathurst Island model, and annual growth and δ¹³C values for the Devon Island model. Both models revealed warmer than average temperatures throughout the mid-20th century, followed by a cooling trend from the early 1960s and mid-1970s at the Devon and Bathurst Island sites, respectively. Temperatures remained cool until the early 1980s and then increased until 1998/1999 at both sites. Our models are supported by other paleoclimate proxies and the instrumental record from the Canadian Arctic. For sites on Axel Heiberg and Bathurst Islands, we developed models using multivariate regresssion for February and March total precipitation that explained 44 % and 42 % of the variance, respectively. The Axel Heiberg Island model included annual production of flowers and flower buds, as well as annual δ¹³C values as predictor variables, while the Bathurst Island model only included the annual production of flower buds as a predictor. Both models showed lower than average precipitation from the early to mid-1900s, followed by increasing precipitation from the late 1980s to 1998/1999. Our precipitation models, supported by instrumental and proxy data, suggest a trend of increasing late-winter/early spring precipitation in the late 20th century. The lack of a single detectable climate signal across the study sites suggests local climate, topography, genetic variation and/or ecological conditions may dictate, in part, site responses and result in a heterogeneous climatescape over space and time. Yet, like other arctic paleoclimate proxies, chronology error and temporal discrepancies may complicate our interpretations. However, comparisons with other arctic proxies and the meteorological record suggest our models have also registered a regional climate signal.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank David Berg, Katie Breen, Anne Gunn, Alan Howard, Maartje Melchoirs, and Michael Svoboda for field, laboratory and data analysis assistance. We also thank the Polar Continental Shelf Project, the Canadian Coast Guard, and the Swedish Polar Secretariat (Tundra Northwest 1999) for logistical support, as well as the Meteorological Service of Canada and Lucie Vincent of the Climate Research Division, contributors to the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology (Boulder, CO, USA), and Niels Schmidt for data used in this study. We gratefully acknowledge project funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, ArcticNet Network of Centres of Excellence of Canada, and the Swedish Polar Secretariat to GHRH, the University of Vermont’s College of Arts and Sciences Dean’s Fund to SAR and AL, and the College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Research Support Award to SAR. We also thank the two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions that helped to improve this manuscript.

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Correspondence to Shelly A. Rayback.

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Online Resource 1

Arctic Canada with the locations of the current study Cassiope tetragona sampling sites (AHI: Axel Heiberg Island; BI: Bathurst Island; DI: Devon Island; triangles), previous C. tetragona sampling sites (CEI: central Ellesmere Island; AF:Alexandra Fiord, Ellesmere Island; triangles) (Rayback and Henry 2005, 2006), and Meteorological Service of Canada weather stations (Eureka, Ellesmere Island; Resolute, Cornwallis Island; Pond Inlet, Baffin Island; circles) (MSC 2009) (Figure reproduced with permission; Rayback et al. 2011). (PDF 219 kb)

Online Resource 2

Ombrothermic diagrams displaying monthly mean temperature (°C, black line) and total precipitation (mm, black columns) for the Eureka (a.), Resolute (b.) and Pond Inlet (c.) High Arctic meteorological stations in Nunavut, Canada. Means and totals were calculated over a 30-year period (1971–2000) (Meteorological Service of Canada 2011). (PDF 164 kb)

Online Resource 3

Cassiope tetragona chronology characteristics for three sites in the Canadian High Arctic. (PDF 119 kb)

Online Resource 4

Correlations between growth, reproduction and δ¹³C chronologies and selected climate variables. Correlations shown below reflect the only significant relationships among the chronologies and climate variables tested. (PDF 156 kb)

Online Resource 5

Comparison of the Axel Heiberg Island (AHI) February total precipitation model (this study) (a.) and the Bathurst Island (BI) March total precipitation model (this study) (b.) with a Salix arctica-based reconstruction of percent snow cover (mean percentage coverage below 600 m. a.s.l. on 10 June) for a site in the Zackenberg Valley, northeastern Greenland (ZVG) (Schmidt et al. 2006) (c.). (PDF 64 kb)

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Rayback, S.A., Henry, G.H.R. & Lini, A. Multiproxy reconstructions of climate for three sites in the Canadian High Arctic using Cassiope tetragona . Climatic Change 114, 593–619 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0431-7

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