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Climate change-related impacts in the San Diego region by 2050

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Abstract

This paper explores what the San Diego region may look like in the year 2050 as projected changes in regional climate conditions take place. Focusing on interrelated issues of climate change, sea level rise, population growth, land use, and changes in water, energy, public health, wildfires, biodiversity, and habitat, the paper reviews the potential impacts of a changing climate by 2050 and makes recommendations for changes in planning processes at the local and regional levels to prepare for these impacts. The original research for this study was completed in 2008 by a team of 40 experts from the region including universities, nonprofit organizations, local governments, public sector agencies and private sector entities. This paper has now been updated with more recent research regarding climate change adaptation while preserving the integrity of the original research team’s work. The simulated impacts discussed in this study are based on regional projections of climate change generated by scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, employing three climate models and two emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The impacts are discussed in the context of significant regional growth expected during the period as well as an aging population base. Key issues explored in the report include potential inundation of six selected low-lying coastal areas in San Diego due to sea level rise, potential shortfalls in water deliveries, peak energy demand increases due to higher temperatures, growing risk of devastating wildfires, migrations of species in response to higher temperatures in an increasingly fragmented natural habitat, and public health issues associated with extreme temperature events.

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Notes

  1. SANDAG’s estimates available at www.sandag.org/index.asp?subclassid=84&fuseaction=home.subclasshome

  2. The three models are the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) version 2.1, and the French Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM).

  3. The IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios.

  4. Indicated by the number of days per year when sea level pressure equals or falls below 1005 mb.

  5. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch6s6-6.html#6-6-1

  6. Model documentation is available at: http://cdip.ucsd.edu/?sub=faq&nav=documents&xitem=future

  7. Run-up elevation = 0.4 * Wave Height @ 10 m depth.

  8. These definitions are unique to this report. As a point of reference, all of the definitions here except “Very Rare” would be associated with a FEMA “high risk” coastal flooding area.

  9. Wave run-up is the maximum vertical extent of wave uprush on a beach or structure above the still water level

  10. http://www.20gallonchallenge.com/about.html

  11. http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/strategies.html

  12. http://www.hydro.washington.edu/Lettenmaier/Models/VIC/

  13. Lower soil moisture content increases agricultural and landscaping water demands.

  14. Christensen et al. 2004, −18%; Milly et al. 2005, −20%; Christensen and Lettenmaier 2007, −6%; Hoerling and Eischeid 2007, −45%.

  15. The agreement can be viewed at: http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/strategies.html

  16. Fragmentation is the emergence of discontinuities in an organism’s preferred environment (habitat). Habitat fragmentation can be caused by geological processes that alter the layout of the physical environment or by human activity such as land conversion, which can alter the environment on a much faster scale.

  17. Climate envelops are defined as locations where the temperature, moisture and other environmental conditions are suitable for the persistence of particular species.

  18. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/antarctica/vostok/vostok.html

  19. Intertidal refers to the area along an ocean coastline that is exposed to air during low tide and submerged at high tide; organisms in the intertidal zone are adapted to harsh conditions.

  20. Subtidal refers to the area along an ocean coastline below the intertidal zone; the subtidal zone is always covered by water.

  21. http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CEC-500-2009-027/CEC-500-2009-027-F.PDF

  22. Data available at: http://www.arb.ca.gov/html/ds.htm and http://www.sdapcd.org/air/air_quality.html.

  23. Mortality data available at: http://www.dhcs.ca.gov/dataandstats/Pages/default.aspx.

  24. http://www.noaawatch.gov/themes/heat.php

  25. http://sdenergydata.com/ElectricitySD.html

  26. California has 16 climate zones as defined by the California Energy Commission. These zones represent regions with similar weather characteristics and are used in Title 24 energy analysis and compliance. A map of the climate zones is presented in Appendix M. http://www.energy.ca.gov/maps/building_climate_zones.html

  27. The National Weather Service describes calculating CDDs with a 65°F reference temperature here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/ddayexp.shtml

  28. http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/feb/16/king-tides-offer-look-rising-sea-levels/

  29. http://meso.spawar.navy.mil/Projects/SL_rise/index.html

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Acknowledgments

This paper relies heavily on the research conducted in The San Diego Foundation’s Regional Focus 2050 Study (Focus 2050 Study) in 2007–2008, which was conceived of and commissioned by The Foundation’s Environment Program. The Foundation contracted with the University of California, San Diego’s Environment and Sustainability Initiative (ESI) during this period to serve as the project manager for the Focus 2050 Study and The Foundation was the project manager for the subsequent Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program study that was incorporated into the California Climate Change Center’s Second Biannual Assessment of the implications of climate change for the State of California. A team of 40 experts from the region including universities, nonprofit organizations, local governments, public sector agencies and private sector entities collaborated to produce this document. It drew upon current scientific analyses from an array of experts in climate science, demography and urban/regional planning, water, energy, public health and ecology. The Focus 2050 Study for the San Diego region was modeled, in part, on the Focus 2050 study undertaken by King County, Washington.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. ENVIRON Corporation, Novato, CA, USA

    Steven Messner

  2. Energized Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA

    Sandra C. Miranda

  3. The San Diego Foundation, San Diego, CA, USA

    Emily Young & Nicola Hedge

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  1. Steven Messner
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  2. Sandra C. Miranda
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Correspondence to Steven Messner.

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Messner, S., Miranda, S.C., Young, E. et al. Climate change-related impacts in the San Diego region by 2050. Climatic Change 109 (Suppl 1), 505–531 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0316-1

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