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Air quality planning in California’s changing climate

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Abstract

California is home to some of the worst air quality in the nation and ninety percent of the state’s population lives in areas that are out of attainment with at least one of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Increasing temperatures associated with climate change will make meeting air quality standards more difficult. Under a changing climate, additional emission reductions will be needed to achieve clean air standards. These additional emission reductions and associated costs are called the “climate penalty.” Air quality planning is the process of assessing the emission reductions needed to meet air quality standards and outlining the programs and policies that will be implemented to achieve these emission reductions. This paper reviews the challenges that a changing climate will pose for air quality planning in California and identifies opportunities for adaptation. While state air quality regulators in California are taking enormous strides to address global warming, less work is happening at the regional, air district level. Air districts are the agencies responsible for developing air quality improvement plans. An important first step for regional air quality regulators will be to quantify the climate penalty and understand their region’s vulnerability to climate change. Limitations in regulatory authority could impede measures to improve preparedness. Regional agencies will likely need to look to state and federal agencies for additional emission reductions.

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Notes

  1. These calculations were completed using data from air quality sites matched with temperature data from the nearest meteorological data collection site. In the San Francisco Bay Area, there were 55 air quality sites and 13 meteorological sites. In the San Joaquin Valley, there were 72 air quality sites and 14 meteorological sites. In the South Coast Air Basin, there were 63 air quality sites and 15 meteorological sites.

  2. This estimate is based on current power plant technology and does not account for any future technology changes.

  3. This estimation is based on the 2005 vehicle fleet and does not take into account any future change in vehicle technology or population. Therefore, it is not a prediction of what will happen in the future, but rather an illustration of the effect that increased temperature can have on vehicle emissions.

  4. A large fire is defined as one that is greater than 200 hectares (494 acres).

  5. The EPA recently revised the federal eight-hour ozone standard to 0.075 ppm (down from 0.08 ppm) to be more protective of human health (USEPA 2008b).

  6. For more information on the Bay Area 2009 Clean Air Plan, see: http://www.baaqmd.gov/Divisions/Planning-and-Research/Plans/Clean-Air-Plans.aspx

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Acknowledgments

This work was partially supported with funding from The Nature Conservancy, Next Ten Foundation, and Pacific Gas and Electric Company. Excellent research assistance was provided by Sarah Swanbeck.

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  1. Governor’s Office of Planning and Research, 1400 Tenth Street, Sacramento, CA, 95814, USA

    Louise Bedsworth

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  1. Louise Bedsworth
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Correspondence to Louise Bedsworth.

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Bedsworth, L. Air quality planning in California’s changing climate. Climatic Change 111, 101–118 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0244-0

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