Abstract
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been extraordinarily successful in the task of knowledge synthesis and risk assessment. However, the strong scientific consensus on the detection, attribution, and risks of climate change stands in stark contrast to widespread confusion, complacency and denial among policymakers and the public. Risk communication is now a major bottleneck preventing science from playing an appropriate role in climate policy. Here I argue that the ability of the IPCC to fulfill its mission can be enhanced through better understanding of the mental models of the audiences it seeks to reach, then altering the presentation and communication of results accordingly. Few policymakers are trained in science, and public understanding of basic facts about climate change is poor. But the problem is deeper. Our mental models lead to persistent errors and biases in complex dynamic systems like the climate and economy. Where the consequences of our actions spill out across space and time, our mental models have narrow boundaries and focus on the short term. Where the dynamics of complex systems are conditioned by multiple feedbacks, time delays, accumulations and nonlinearities, we have difficulty recognizing and understanding feedback processes, underestimate time delays, and do not understand basic principles of accumulation or how nonlinearities can create regime shifts. These problems arise not only among laypeople but also among highly educated elites with significant training in science. They arise not only in complex systems like the climate but also in familiar contexts such as filling a bathtub. Therefore they cannot be remedied merely by providing more information about the climate, but require different modes of communication, including experiential learning environments such as interactive simulations.
Notes
The Gunning Fog index is given by 0.4(W/S) + 100(W 3/W) where W is the number of words in the text, S is the number of sentences, and W 3 is the number of words of three or more syllables. Fog index calculated by www.editcentral.com/gwt1/EditCentral.html (result: 16.7) and www.online-utility.org/english/readability_test_and_improve.jsp (result: 16.9).
References
Axelrod R (1976) The structure of decision: the cognitive maps of political elites. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Booth Sweeney L, Sterman J (2000) Bathtub dynamics: initial results of a systems thinking inventory. Syst Dynam Rev 16(4):249–294
Booth Sweeney L, Sterman J (2007) Thinking about systems: students’ and their teachers’ conceptions of natural and social systems. Syst Dynam Rev 23(2–3):285–312
Bostrom A, Morgan MG, Fischhoff B, Read D (1994) What do people know about global climate change? Part 1: mental models. Risk Anal 14(6):959–970
Buehler R, Griffin D, Ross M (2002) Inside the planning fallacy: the causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions. In: Gilovich T, Griffin D, Kahneman D (eds) Heuristics and biases. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, pp 250–270
Cialdini R (2009) Influence: science and practice, 5th edn. Pearson, Boston
Connolly T, Arkes H, Hammond K (2000) Judgment and decision making, 2nd edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Cronin M, Gonzalez C, Sterman J (2009) Why don’t well-educated adults understand accumulation? a challenge to researchers, educators, and citizens. Organ Behav Hum Decis Process 108(1):116–130
Dean C (2009) Am I making myself clear? A scientist’s guide to talking to the public. Harvard University Press, Cambridge
Dörner D (1980) On the difficulties people have in dealing with complexity. Simulation & Games 11(1):87–106
Dörner D (1996) The logic of failure. Metropolitan Books/Henry Holt, New York
Ediwards P (2010) A vast machine. MIT Press, Cambridge
Egan P, Mullin M (2011) Turning personal experience into political attitudes: the effect of local weather on Americans’ perceptions about global warming. Working paper, New York University, March; available at http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4819/egan_mullin_mar2011.pdf
Einhorn H, Hogarth R (1986) Judging probable cause. Psychol Bull 99(1):3–19
Fischhoff B (2007) Non-persuasive communication about matters of greatest urgency: climate change. Environ Sci Technol 41:7204–7208
Fischhoff B (2009) Risk perception and communication. In: Detels R, Beaglehole R, Lansang M, Gulliford M (eds) Oxford textbook of public health, 5th edn. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 940–952
Forrester JW (1969) Urban dynamics. MIT Press, Cambridge
Frederick S, Loewenstein G, O’Donoghue T (2002) Time discounting and time preference: a critical review. J Econ Lit 40(2):351–401
Gallup (2010) Americans’ global warming concerns continue to drop. Available at www.gallup.com/poll/126560/americans-global-warming-concerns-continue-drop.aspx
Gilovic T, Griffin D, Kahneman D (2002) Heuristics and biases: the psychology of intuitive judgment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Gonzales P, Williams T, Jocelyn L, Roey S, Kastberg D, Brenwald S (2009) Highlights from TIMSS 2007: mathematics and science achievement of U.S. fourth- and eighth-grade students in an international context (NCES 2009–001 Revised). National Center for Education Statistics, Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC; available at nces.ed.gov/pubs2009/2009001.pdf
Hartley L, Wilke B, Schramm J et al (2011) College students’ understanding of the carbon cycle: contrasting principle-based and informal reasoning. Bioscience 61:65–75
IPCC (2006) Principles governing IPCC work. Approved at the Fourteenth Session (Vienna, 1–3 October 1998) on 1 October 1998, amended at the 21st Session (Vienna, 3 and 6–7 November 2003) and at the 25th Session (Mauritius, 26–28 April 2006); available at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf
IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK; available at www.ipcc.ch
Kahneman D, Tversky A (2000) Choices, values and frames. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Kahneman D, Slovic P, Tversky A (1982) Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Kutner M, Greenberg E, Jin Y, Boyle B, Hsu Y, Dunleavy E (2007) Literacy in everyday life: results from the 2003 national assessment of adult literacy (NCES 2007–480). U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics, Washington, DC; available at nces.ed.gov/Pubs2007/2007480.pdf
Leiserowitz A (2007) Public perception, opinion and understanding of climate change—current patterns, trends and limitations (UNDP, New York); available at hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/papers/leiserowitz_anthony.pdf
Leiserowitz A, Smith N (2010) Knowledge of climate change across global warming’s six Americas. Yale University, New Haven CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication. Available at environment.yale.edu/climate/files/Knowledge_Across_Six_Americas.pdf
Leiserowitz A, Smith N, Marlon J (2010) Americans’ knowledge of climate change. Yale University. New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication; available at environment.yale.edu/climate/files/ClimateChangeKnowledge2010.pdf
Li Y, Johnson E, Zaval L (2011) Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming. Psychol Sci 22(4):454–459
Lichtenstein S, Fischhoff B, Phillips L (1982) Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980. In: Kahneman D, Slovic P, Tversky A (eds) Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
McClure S, Laibson D, Loewenstein G, Cohen J (2004) Separate neural systems value immediate and delayed monetary rewards. Science 306:503–507
Morgan G, Fischhoff B, Bostrom A, Atman C (2001) Risk communication: a mental models approach. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge
Moser S, Dilling L (2004) Making climate hot. Environment 46(10):32–46
Moxnes E (1998) Not only the tragedy of the commons: misperceptions of bioeconomics. Manag Sci 44(9):1234–1248
Moxnes E (2004) Misperceptions of basic dynamics: the case of renewable resource management. Syst Dynam Rev 20(2):139–162
Moxnes E, Saysel AK (2009) Misperceptions of global climate change: information policies. Clim Change 93(1–2):15–37
Olson R (2009) Don’t be such a scientist. Island Press
Oreskes N, Conway E (2010) Merchants of doubt. Bloomsbury Press
Paich M, Sterman J (1993) Boom, bust, and failures to learn in experimental markets. Manag Sci 39(12):1439–1458
Plous S (1993) The psychology of judgment and decision making. McGraw Hill, New York
Read D, Bostrom A, Morgan MG, Fischhoff B, Smuts D (1994) What do people know about global climate change? Part 2: survey studies of educated laypeople. Risk Anal 14(6):971–982
Repenning N, Sterman J (2001) Nobody ever gets credit for fixing problems that never happened: creating and sustaining process improvement. Calif Manage Rev 43(4):64–88
Risen J, Critcher C (2011) Visceral fit: while in a visceral state, associated states of the world seem more likely. J Pers Soc Psychol 100(5):777–793
Slovic P (ed) (2000) The perception of risk. Earthscan, London
Sterman J (1989) Modeling managerial behavior: misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment. Manag Sci 35(3):321–339
Sterman J (1994) Learning in and about complex systems. Syst Dynam Rev 10(2–3):291–330
Sterman J (2000) Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Sterman J (2002) All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist. Syst Dynam Rev 18(4):501–531
Sterman J (2008) Risk communication on climate: mental models and mass balance. Science 322:532–533
Sterman J (2010) Does formal system dynamics training improve people’s understanding of accumulation? Syst Dynam Rev 26(4):316–334
Sterman J, Booth Sweeney L (2007) Understanding public complacency about climate change: adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter. Clim Change 80(3–4):213–238
Tetlock P (2005) Expert political judgment. Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton
Wagenaar W (1978) Intuitive prediction of growth. In: Burkhardt D, Ittelson W (eds) Environmental assessment of socioeconomic systems. Plenum, New York
Wagenaar W, Sagaria S (1975) Misperception of exponential growth. Percept Psychophys 18:416–422
Weber E, Stern P (2011) Public understanding of climate change in the United States. Am Psychol 66(4):315–328
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sterman, J.D. Communicating climate change risks in a skeptical world. Climatic Change 108, 811 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0189-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0189-3