RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m−2 in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. Simulated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), RCP4.5 includes long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework. RCP4.5 was updated from earlier GCAM scenarios to incorporate historical emissions and land cover information common to the RCP process and follows a cost-minimizing pathway to reach the target radiative forcing. The imperative to limit emissions in order to reach this target drives changes in the energy system, including shifts to electricity, to lower emissions energy technologies and to the deployment of carbon capture and geologic storage technology. In addition, the RCP4.5 emissions price also applies to land use emissions; as a result, forest lands expand from their present day extent. The simulated future emissions and land use were downscaled from the regional simulation to a grid to facilitate transfer to climate models. While there are many alternative pathways to achieve a radiative forcing level of 4.5 W m−2, the application of the RCP4.5 provides a common platform for climate models to explore the climate system response to stabilizing the anthropogenic components of radiative forcing.
- RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100
- Open Access
- Available under Open Access This content is freely available online to anyone, anywhere at any time.
Volume 109, Issue 1-2 , pp 77-94
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Springer Netherlands
- Additional Links
- Industry Sectors
- Author Affiliations
- 1. Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, USA