Climatic Change

, Volume 113, Issue 3, pp 1065–1079

Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change

  • Alberto Troccoli
  • Filippo Zambon
  • Kevin I. Hodges
  • Marco Marani
Article

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0093-x

Cite this article as:
Troccoli, A., Zambon, F., Hodges, K.I. et al. Climatic Change (2012) 113: 1065. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0093-x

Abstract

Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 re-analysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Alberto Troccoli
    • 1
  • Filippo Zambon
    • 2
    • 3
  • Kevin I. Hodges
    • 2
  • Marco Marani
    • 3
  1. 1.Pye LaboratoryCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)CanberraAustralia
  2. 2.Environmental Systems Science Centre (ESSC)University of ReadingReadingUK
  3. 3.Dept. IMAGE and International Center for HydrologyUniversity of PadovaPadovaItaly