Article

Climatic Change

, Volume 113, Issue 3, pp 1065-1079

Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change

  • Alberto TroccoliAffiliated withPye Laboratory, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Email author 
  • , Filippo ZambonAffiliated withEnvironmental Systems Science Centre (ESSC), University of ReadingDept. IMAGE and International Center for Hydrology, University of Padova
  • , Kevin I. HodgesAffiliated withEnvironmental Systems Science Centre (ESSC), University of Reading
  • , Marco MaraniAffiliated withDept. IMAGE and International Center for Hydrology, University of Padova

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Abstract

Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 re-analysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.