Abstract
The assessment of greenhouse gases emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on the international political and scientific agendas. Growing international concern and cooperation regarding the climate change problem have increased the need for policy-oriented solutions to the issue of uncertainty in, and related to, inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The approaches to addressing uncertainty discussed in this Special Issue reflect attempts to improve national inventories, not only for their own sake but also from a wider, systems analytical perspective—a perspective that seeks to strengthen the usefulness of national inventories under a compliance and/or global monitoring and reporting framework. These approaches demonstrate the benefits of including inventory uncertainty in policy analyses. The authors of the contributed papers show that considering uncertainty helps avoid situations that can, for example, create a false sense of certainty or lead to invalid views of subsystems. This may eventually prevent related errors from showing up in analyses. However, considering uncertainty does not come for free. Proper treatment of uncertainty is costly and demanding because it forces us to make the step from “simple to complex” and only then to discuss potential simplifications. Finally, comprehensive treatment of uncertainty does not offer policymakers quick and easy solutions. The authors of the papers in this Special Issue do, however, agree that uncertainty analysis must be a key component of national GHG inventory analysis. Uncertainty analysis helps to provide a greater understanding and better science helps us to reduce and deal with uncertainty. By recognizing the importance of identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in ongoing discussions regarding GHG inventories and accounting for climate change. The 17 papers in this Special Issue deal with many aspects of analyzing and dealing with uncertainty in emissions estimates.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
API (2004) Compendium of greenhouse gas emissions methodologies for the oil and gas industry. Compendium, American Petroleum Institute, Washington, p 489. Available at: http://www.api.org/ehs/climate/new/upload/2004_COMPENDIUM.pdf
Bun A, Hamal K, Jonas M, Lesiv M (2010) Verification of compliance with GHG emission targets: annex B countries. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9906-6
Bun R, Hamal K, Gusti M, Bun A (2010) Spatial GHG inventory on regional level: accounting for uncertainty. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9907-5
Ciais P, Rayner P, Chevallier F, Bousquet P, Logan M, Peylin P, Ramonet M (2010) Atmospheric inversions for estimating CO2 fluxes: methods and perspectives. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9909-3
Denman KL, Brasseur G, Chidthaisong A, Ciais P, Cox PM, Dickinson RE, Hauglustaine D, Heinze C, Holland E, Jacob D, Lohmann U, Ramachandran S, da Silva Dias PL, Wofsy SC, Zhang X (2007) Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 499–587. Available at: http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html
Eggleston HS, Buendia L, Miwa K, Ngara, T, Tanabe K. (eds) (2006) 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan. Available at: http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.html
Ermolieva T, Ermoliev Y, Fischer G, Jonas M, Makowski M, Wagner F (2010) Carbon emission trading and carbon taxes under uncertainties. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9910-x
EU (2009) Decision no 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the effort of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet the community’s greenhouse gas reduction commitments up to 2020. Official Journal of the European Union, L 140, 52(5 June 2009), 136–148. ISSN: 1725-2555. Available at: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/JOHtml.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:140:SOM:EN:HTML
FCCC (2006a) Updated UNFCCC reporting guidelines on annual inventories following incorporation of the provisions of decision 14/CP.11. Report FCCC/SBSTA/2006/9, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Bonn, Germany, p 93. Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2006/sbsta/eng/09.pdf
FCCC (2006b) Report of the conference of the parties serving as the meeting of the parties to the Kyoto Protocol on its first session, held at Montreal from 28 November to 10 December 2005. Addendum. Part two: action taken by the conference of the parties serving as the meeting of the parties to the Kyoto Protocol on its first session. Report FCCC/KP/CMP/2005/8/Add.3, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Bonn, Germany, p 103. Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2005/cmp1/eng/08a03.pdf
FCCC (2009a) Copenhagen—background information. Fact sheet, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Bonn, p 3. Available at: http://unfccc.int/files/press/application/pdf/fact_sheet_copenhagen_background_information.pdf
FCCC (2009b) Why is an international climate change deal so important? Fact sheet, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Bonn, p 2. Available at: http://unfccc.int/files/press/fact_sheets/application/pdf/fact_sheet_climate_deal.pdf
FCCC (2009c) Copenhagen accord. Advance unedited version of decision-/CP.15, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Bonn, p 6. Available at: http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/cop_15/application/pdf/cop15_cph_auv.pdf
Field CB (2007) Natural versus anthropogenic control of ecosystem carbon stocks. In: Proceedings, 2nd international workshop on uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories, 27–28 September, Laxenburg, Austria, pp 59–60. Available at: http://www.ibspan.waw.pl/ghg2007/GHG-total.pdf
Gusti M, Jonas M (2010) Terrestrial full carbon account for Russia: revised uncertainty estimates and their role in a bottom-up/top-down accounting exercise. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9911-9
Horabik J, Nahorski Z (2010) A statistical model for spatial inventory data: a case study of N2O emissions in municipalities of southern Norway. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9913-7
IIASA (2007) Uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories. IIASA Policy Brief #01, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg. Available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/policy-briefs/pb01-web.pdf
IPCC (2006) 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. In: Eggleston HS, Buendia L, Miwa K, Ngara T, Tanabe K (eds) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan. Available at: http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.html
IPIECA (2003) Petroleum industry guidelines for reporting greenhouse gas emissions. Guidelines, International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association, London, p 81. Available at: http://www.ipieca.org/activities/climate_change/downloads/publications/ghg_guidelines.pdf
IPIECA (2009) Addressing uncertainty in oil and natural gas industry greenhouse gas inventories. Guidelines pilot test version, International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association, London, p 186. Available at: http://www.api.org/ehs/climate/response/upload/Addressing_Uncertainty.pdf
Jonas M, White T, Marland G, Lieberman D, Nahorski Z, Nilsson S (2009) Dealing with uncertainty in GHG inventories: how to go about it? In: Marti K, Ermoliev Y, Makowski M (eds) Coping with uncertainty: robust solutions. Springer, Berlin, Germany, p 277. ISBN: 978-3-642-03734-4], 229–245
Jonas M, Gusti M, Jęda W, Nahorski Z, Nilsson S (2010) Comparison of preparatory signal analysis techniques for consideration in the (post-) Kyoto policy process. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9914-6
Lieberman D, Jonas M, Nahorski Z, Nilsson S (eds) (2007) Accounting for climate change. Uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories—verification, compliance, and trading. Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, p 159. ISBN: 978-1-4020-5929-2 [Reprint: Water Air Soil Pollut.: Focus, 2007, 7(4–5). ISSN: 1567-7230]. Available at: http://www.springer.com/environment/global+change+-+climate+change/book/978-1-4020-5929-2
Leip A (2010) Quantitative quality assessment of the greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture in Europe. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9915-5
Marland G (2008) Uncertainties in accounting for CO2 from fossil fuels. J Ind Ecol 12(2):136–139. doi:10.1111/j.1530-9290.2008.00014.x
Marland G, Rotty RM (1984) Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels: a procedure for estimation and results for 1950–1982. Tellus 36B(4):232–261. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.1984.tb00245.x
Meinshausen M, Meinshausen N, Hare W, Raper SCB, Frieler K, Knutti R, Frame DJ, Allen MR (2009) Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2°C. Nature 458:1158–1162. doi:10.1038/nature08017
Nahorski Z, Horabik J (2010) Compliance and emission trading rules for asymmetric emission uncertainty estimates. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9916-4
NRC (2010) Verifying greenhouse gas emissions: methods to support international climate agreements. Report, National Research Council, National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., United States of America, p 132. Available at: http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12883 (prepublication version)
Oijen Mv, Thomson A (2010) Toward Bayesian uncertainty quantification for forestry models used in the United Kingdom Greenhouse Gas Inventory for land use, land use change, and forestry. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9917-3
Pandey JS, Wate SR, Devotta S (2007) Development of emission factors for GHGs and associated Uncertainties. In: Proceedings, 2nd international workshop on uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories, 27–28 September, Laxenburg, Austria, pp 163–168. Available at: http://www.ibspan.waw.pl/ghg2007/GHG-total.pdf
Penman J, Kruger D, Galbally I, Hiraishi T, Nyenzi B, Emmanuel S, Buendia L, Hoppaus R, Martinsen T, Meijer J, Miwa K, Tanabe K (eds) (2000) Good practice guidance and uncertainty management in national greenhouse gas inventories. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan. Available at: http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gp/english/
Penman J, Gytarsky M, Hiraishi T, Krug T, Kruger D, Pipatti R, Buendia L, Miwa K, Ngara T, Tanabe K, Wagner F (eds) (2003) Good practice guidance for land use, land-use change and forestry. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan. Available at: http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gpglulucf/gpglulucf.htm
Pickl S, Kropat E, Hahn H (2010) The impact of uncertain emission trading markets on interactive resource planning processes and international emission trading experiments. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9912-8
Rivier L, Peylin P, Ciais P, Gloor M, Rödenbeck C, Geels C, Karstens U, Bousquet P, Brandt J, Heimann M, Aerocarb experimentalists (2010) European CO2 fluxes from atmospheric inversions using regional and global transport models. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9908-4
Schiermeier Q (2009) G8 climate target questioned. Nature 460(7253), 16 July:313. doi:10.1038/460313a
Shvidenko A, Schepaschenko D, McCallum I, Nilsson S (2010) Can the uncertainty of full carbon accounting of forest ecosystems be made acceptable to policy makers? Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9918-2
Stańczak J, Bartoszczuk P (2010) CO2 emission trading model with trading prices. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9905-7
Szemesová J, Gera M (2010) Uncertainty analysis for estimation of landfill emissions and data sensitivity for the input variation. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9919-1
Verstraeten WW, Veroustraete F, Wagner W, Roey Tv, Heyns W, Verbeiren S, Feyen J (2010) Remotely sensed soil moisture integration in an ecosystem carbon flux model. The spatial implication. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9920-8
WBGU (2009a) Climate change: why 2°C? Factsheet 2/2009, German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), Berlin, Germany. ISBN: 3-936191-33-6. Available at: http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_factsheet_2_en.html
WBGU (2009b) Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approach. Special Report, German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), Berlin, Germany, p 55. ISBN: 978-3-936191-27-1. Available at: http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2009_en.pdf
Winiwarter W, Muik B (2010) Statistical dependence in input data of national greenhouse gas inventories: effects on the overall inventory uncertainty. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9921-7
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Jonas, M., Marland, G., Winiwarter, W. et al. Benefits of dealing with uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories: introduction. Climatic Change 103, 3–18 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9922-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9922-6