Abstract
This paper warns against the risk of underestimating the costs—and the uncertainty about the costs—of achieving stringent stabilization targets. We argue that a straightforward review of integrated assessment models results produces biased estimates for the more ambitious climate objectives such as those compatible with the 2°C of the European Union and the G8. The magnitude and range of estimates are significantly reduced because only the most optimistic results are reported for such targets. We suggest a procedure that addresses this partiality. The results show highly variable costs for the most ambitious scenarios.
Article PDF
References
Barker T, Koehler J, Villena M (2002) The costs of greenhouse gas abatement: a meta-analysis of post-SRES mitigation scenarios. Environ Econ Policy Stud 5:135–166
Barker T, Bashmakov I, Alharthi A, Amann M, Cifuentes L, Drexhage J, Duan M, Edenhofer O, Flannery BP, Grubb MJ, Hoogwijk M, Ibitoye FI, Jepma CJ, Pizer WA, Yamaji K (2007) Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective. In: Metz B et al (eds) Climate change 2007: mitigation—contribution of working group III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 619–690
Blanford GJ, Richels RG, Rutherford TF (2009) Feasible climate targets: the roles of economic growth, coalition development and expectations. Energy Econ 31(Suppl 2):S82–S93
Bosetti V, Carraro C, Tavoni M (2009) Climate change mitigation strategies in fast-growing countries: the benefits of early action. Energy Econ 31(Suppl 2):S144–S151
Calvin K, Edmonds J, Bond-Lamberty B, Clarke L, Kim SH, Kyle P, Smith SJ, Thomson A, Wise M (2009a) 2.6: limiting climate change to 450 ppm CO2 equivalent in the 21st century. Energy Econ 31(Suppl 2):S107–S120
Calvin K, Patel P, Fawcett A, Clarke L, Fisher-Vanden K, Edmonds J, Kim SH, Sands R, Wise M (2009b) The distribution and magnitude of emissions mitigation costs in climate stabilization under less than perfect international cooperation: SGM results. Energy Econ 31(Suppl 2):S187–S197
CEC (2005) Winning the battle against global climate change. Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions COM(2005) 35 final, Commission of the European Communities, Brussels
Clarke L, Edmonds J, Krey V, Richels R, Rose S, Tavoni M (2009) International climate policy architectures: overview of the EMF 22 international scenarios. Energy Econ 31(S2):S64–S81
Fischer C, Morgenstern RD (2006) Carbon abatement costs: why the wide range of estimates? Energy J 272:73–86
Gurney A, Ahammad H, Ford M (2009) The economics of greenhouse gas mitigation: insights from illustrative global abatement scenarios modelling. Energy Econ 31(Suppl 2):S174–S186
Hertel TW, Rose S, Tol RSJ (eds) (2009) Economic analysis of land use in global climate change policy. Routledge, London
IPCC (2007) Summary for policymakers. In Metz B et al (eds) Climate change 2007: mitigation—contribution of working group III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Keith DW, Ha-Duong M, Stolaroff JK (2006) Climate strategy with CO2 capture from the air. Clim Change 74:17–45
Keller K, McInerney D, Bradford DF (2008) Carbon dioxide sequestration: how much and when? Clim Change 88:267–291
Krey V, Riahi K (2009) Implications of delayed participation and technology failure for the feasibility, costs, and likelihood of staying below temperature targets–Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for the 21st century. Energy Econ 31(Suppl 2):S94–S106
Kuik OJ, Brander L, Tol RSJ (2009) Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions: a meta-analysis. Energy Policy 37(4):1395–1403
Lackner KS (2009) Capture of carbon dioxide from ambient air. Eur Phys J Special Topics 176:93–106
Loulou R, Labriet M, Kanudia A (2009) Deterministic and stochastic analysis of alternative climate targets under differentiated cooperation regimes. Energy Econ 31(Suppl 2):S131–S143
MEF (2009) Declaration of the major economies forum on energy and climate. Major Economies Forum, L’Aquila
Repetto R, Austin D (1997) The costs of climate protection: a guide for the perplexed. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC
Rhodes JS, Keith DW (2005) Engineering economic analysis of biomass IGCC with carbon capture and storage. Biomass Bioenergy 29(6):440–450
Russ P, van Ierland T (2009) Insights on different participation schemes to meet climate goals. Energy Econ 31(Suppl 2):S163–S173
Stephens JC, Keith DW (2008) Assessing geochemical carbon management. Clim Change 90:217–242
Tol RSJ (2007) Biased policy advice from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Energy Environ 18(7+8):929–936
Tol RSJ (2009) The feasibility of low concentration targets: an application of FUND. Energy Econ 31(S2):S121–S130
van Vliet J, den Elzen MGJ, van Vuuren DP (2009) Meeting radiative forcing targets under delayed participation. Energy Econ 31(Suppl 2):S152–S162
Weyant JP (2004) Introduction and overview. Energy Econ 26:501–515
Weyant JP, Hill JN (1999) Introduction and overview of the special issue. Energy journal special issue on the costs of the Kyoto protocol: a multi-model evaluation, pp vii–xliv
Weyant JP, de la Chesnaye FC, Blanford GJ (2006) Overview of EMF-21: multigas mitigation and climate policy. Energy J 3:1–32
Wise MA, Calvin KV, Thomson AM, Clarke LE, Bond-Lamberty B, Sands RD, Smith SJ, Janetos AC, Edmonds JA (2009) Implications of limiting CO2 concentrations for land use and energy. Science 324:1183–1186
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Open Access This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0), which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited.
About this article
Cite this article
Tavoni, M., Tol, R.S.J. Counting only the hits? The risk of underestimating the costs of stringent climate policy. Climatic Change 100, 769–778 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9867-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9867-9