Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The Yakima River Reservoir system supplies water to ~180,000 irrigated hectares through the operation of five reservoirs with cumulative storage of ~30% mean annual river flow. Runoff is derived mostly from winter precipitation in the Cascade Mountains, much of which is stored as snowpack. Climate change is expected to result in earlier snowmelt runoff and reduced summer flows. Effects of these changes on irrigated agriculture were simulated using a reservoir system model coupled to a hydrological model driven by downscaled scenarios from 20 climate models archived by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. We find earlier snowmelt results in increased water delivery curtailments. Historically, the basin experienced substantial water shortages in 14% of years. Without adaptations, for IPCC A1B global emission scenarios, water shortages increase to 27% (13% to 49% range) in the 2020s, to 33% in the 2040s, and 68% in the 2080s. For IPCC B1 emissions scenarios, shortages occur in 24% (7% to 54%) of years in the 2020s, 31% in the 2040s and 43% in the 2080s. Historically unprecedented conditions where senior water rights holders suffer shortfalls occur with increasing frequency in both A1B and B1 scenarios. Economic losses include expected annual production declines of 5%–16%, with greater probabilities of operating losses for junior water rights holders.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Anderson B, Gibbs M, Hart C, Inman R, McChesney D, Slattery K (2006) 2005 drought response report to the legislature. Publication 06-11-001. Washington State Department of Ecology, Water Resources Program, Olympia, p 48

  • Casola JH, Cuo L, Livneh B, Lettenmaier DP, Stoelinga MT, Mote PW, Wallace JM (2009) Assessing the impacts of global warming on snowpack in the Washington cascades. J Clim 22(10):2758–2772

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elsner MM, Cuo L, Voisin N, Deems JS, Hamlet AF, Vano JA, Mickelson KEB, Lee SY, Lettenmaier DP (2010) Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9855-0

    Google Scholar 

  • Glantz MH (1982) Consequences and responsibility in drought forecasting: the case of Yakima, 1977. Water Resour Res 18:3–13

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guédon Y, Legave JM (2008) Analyzing the time-course variation of apple and pear tree dates of flowering stages in the global warming context. Ecol Model 219:189–199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

  • Isley S (2001) Memorandum to the drought water transfers group, May 19, 2001: proposed methodology for calculating TWSA water budget neutral water transfer quantities using consumptive use calculations. http://www.roundtableassociates.com/xfer/docs/ConsumpUseMethod.htm. Accessed 10 April 2006

  • Kent CA (2004) Water resource planning in the Yakima River Basin: development vs. sustainability. APCG Yearbook 66:27–60

    Google Scholar 

  • Liang X, Lettenmaier DP, Wood EF, Burges SJ (1994) A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models. J Geophys Res 99(14):415–414, 428

    Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Field CB, Cahill KN, Bonfils C (2006) Impacts of future climate change on California perennial crop yields: model projections with climate and crop uncertainties. Agric For Meteorol 141(2–4):208–218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mastin MC (2008) Effects of potential future warming on runoff in the Yakima River Basin, Washington: US Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report, 2008-5124, p 12. http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2008/5124/

  • Mastin MC, Vaccaro JJ (2002) Watershed models for decision support in the Yakima River Basin, Washington. US Geological Survey Open-File Report 02-404, Tacoma, WA

  • Milly PCD, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M, Hirsch RM, Kundzewicz ZW, Lettenmaier DP, Stouffer RJ (2008) Stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science 319(5863):573–574

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mote PW, Salathé EP Jr (2010) Future climate in the Pacific Northwest. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9848-z

    Google Scholar 

  • Mote PW, Hamlet AF, Clark MP, Lettenmaier DP (2005) Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. BAMS 86(1):39–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oracle (2009) Oracle crystal ball. http://www.oracle.com/appserver/business-intelligence/crystalball/crystalball.html. Accessed 30 Jan 2009

  • Scott MJ, Vail LW, Jaksch JA, Stöckle CO, Kemanian AR (2004a) Water exchanges: tools to beat el niño climate variability in irrigated agriculture. J Water Resour Assoc 40(1):15–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott MJ, Vail LW, Jaksch JA, Stöckle CO, Kemanian AR (2004b) Climate change and adaptation in irrigated agriculture—a case study of the Yakima River. In: Proceedings of the UCOWR/NIWR annual conference, 20–22 July 2004, Portland, Oregon. PNWD-SA-6448. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA

  • Snover AK, Hamlet AF, Lettenmaier DP (2003) Climate change scenarios for water planning studies: pilot applications in the Pacific Northwest. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84(11):1513–1518. http://www.hydro.washington.edu/Lettenmaier/permanent_archive/hamleaf/bams_paper/technical_documentation.pdf

  • Stöckle CO, Nelson R (1996) CropSyst user’s manual (version 2.0). Biological Systems Engineering Dept., Washing State Univ, Pullman

  • Stöckle CO, Donatelli M, Nelson R (2003) CropSyst, a cropping systems simulation model. Eur J Agron 18:289–307

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stöckle CO, Nelson RL, Higgins S, Brunner J, Grove G, Boydston R, Whiting M, Kruger C (2010) Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9851-4

    Google Scholar 

  • US Department of Agriculture (2004) 2002 Census of Agriculture. Washington State and County data, vol 1, geographic area series, part 47. AC-02-A-47. US Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC, p 483

  • US Bureau of Reclamation (2002) Interim comprehensive basin operating plan for the Yakima Project, Washington. Yakima Field Office, Yakima, WA

    Google Scholar 

  • US Bureau of Reclamation (2008) Yakima River Basin water storage feasibility study. Final planning report/environmental impact statement. http://www.usbr.gov/pn/programs/storage_study/reports/eis/final/index.html. Accessed 4 Jan 2009

  • Vano JA, Voisin N, Cuo L, Hamlet AF, Elsner MM, Palmer RN, Polebitski A, Lettenmaier DP (2010) Climate change impacts on water management in the Puget Sound region, Washington State, USA. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9846-1

    Google Scholar 

  • Washington State Department of Ecology (2009) Yakima River Basin water management. http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wr/cro/yakimabasin.html. Accessed 24 Feb 2009

  • Western Region Climate Center (WRCC) (2007) Monthly climate summaries. http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/summary/Climsmwa.html. Accessed 13 Dec 2007

  • Whitely Binder LC, Barcelos JK, Booth DB, Darzen M, Elsner MM, Fenske R, Graham TF, Hamlet AF, Hodges-Howell J, Jackson JE, Karr C, Keys PW, Littell JS, Mantua N, Marlow J, McKenzie D, Robinson-Dorn M, Rosenberg EA, Stöckle CO, Vano JA (2010) Preparing for climate change in Washington State. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9850-5

    Google Scholar 

  • Wood AW, Maurer EP, Kumar A, Lettenmaier DP (2002) Long-range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States. J Geophyl Res 107(D20):6:1–15

    Google Scholar 

  • Yakima River Basin Conservation Advisory Group (CAG) (2002) Yakima River Basin water transfers 2001 drought year and 2002 pilot transfer process. March 2002. Prepared by CAG facilitator, Roundtable Associates, Seattle WA, p 13

  • Zagona EA, Fulp TJ, Shane R, Magee T, Goranflo HM (2001) RiverWare: a generalized tool for complex reservoir system modeling. J AWRA 37(4):913–929

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Julie A. Vano.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Vano, J.A., Scott, M.J., Voisin, N. et al. Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA. Climatic Change 102, 287–317 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9856-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9856-z

Keywords

Navigation