Abstract
We investigate the performance of one stretched-grid atmospheric global model, five different regional climate models and a statistical downscaling technique in simulating 3 months (January 1971, November 1986, July 1996) characterized by anomalous climate conditions in the southern La Plata Basin. Models were driven by reanalysis (ERA-40). The analysis has emphasized on the simulation of the precipitation over land and has provided a quantification of the biases of and scatter between the different regional simulations. Most but not all dynamical models underpredict precipitation amounts in south eastern South America during the three periods. Results suggest that models have regime dependence, performing better for some conditions than others. The models’ ensemble and the statistical technique succeed in reproducing the overall observed frequency of daily precipitation for all periods. But most models tend to underestimate the frequency of dry days and overestimate the amount of light rainfall days. The number of events with strong or heavy precipitation tends to be under simulated by the models.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Barrucand M, Rusticucci M (2001) Climatología de temperaturas extremas en la Argentina. Variabilidad temporal y regional. Meteorológica 26:85–102
Bettolli M, Penalba O, Vargas W (2005) Características de la precipitación diaria en la región sojera Argentina. In: Proceedings of the IX congreso Argentino de meteorología, Buenos Aires
Bony S, Emanuel KA (2001) A parameterization of the cloudiness associated with cumulus convection; evaluation using TOGA-COARE data. J Atmos Sci 58(21):3158–3183
Boulanger J-P, Lafon F, Penalba O, Rusticucci M, Vargas W (2005) Low-frequency modes of observed precipitation variability over the La Plata basin. Clim Dyn 24:393–413. doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0514-x
Castro M, Fernandez C, Gaertner MA (1993) Description of a meso-scale atmospheric numerical model. In: Diaz JI, Lions JL (eds) Mathematics, climate and environment, Masson (ISBN: 2-225-84297-3), p 273
Champeaux JL, Masson V, Chauvin F (2005) ECOCLIMAP: a global database of land surface parameters at 1 km resolution. Meteorol Appl 12:29–32
Chen F, Dudhia J (2001) Coupling and advanced land surface-hydrology model with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: model implementation and sensitivity. Mon Weather Rev 129:569–585
Christensen OB (1999) Relaxation of soil variables in a regional climate model. Tellus A 51:674–685
Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli RK, Kwon W-T, Laprise R, Rueda VM, Mearns L, Menéndez CG, Räisänen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Cosgrove BA et al (2003) Land surface model spin up behavior in the North American land data assimilation system (NLDAS). J Geophys Res 108:8845. doi:10.1029/2002JD003316
Diaz A, Aceituno P (2003) Atmospheric circulation anomalies during episodes of enhanced and reduced convective cloudiness over Uruguay. J Clim 16:3171–3185
D’Onofrio A, Boulanger J-P, Segura EC (2009) A weather pattern classification system for regional climate downscaling of daily precipitation and temperature. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9738-4
Ducoudre N, Laval K, Perrier A (1993) SECHIBA, a new set of parameterizations of the hydrologic exchanges at the land-atmosphere interface within the LMD atmospheric general circulation model. J Clim 6:248–273
Dudhia J (1989) Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model. J Atmos Sci 46:3077–3107
Dümenil L, Todini E (1992) A rainfall–runoff scheme for use in the Hamburg climate model. In: O’Kane JP (ed) Advances in theoretical hydrology, EGS series of hydrological sciences 1. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 129–157
Emanuel KA (1993) A scheme for representing cumulus convection in large-scale models. J Atmos Sci 48:2313–2335
Fuenzalida H (2007) Climate change simulations with PRECIS over Chile. Presentation at the CLARIS final meeting, La Plata, Argentina, June 2007
Garand L (1983) Some improvements and complements to the infrared emissivity algorithm including a parameterization of the absorption in the continuum region. J Atmos Sci 40:230–244
Giorgetta M, Wild M (1995) The water vapour continuum and its representation in ECHAM4, Max Planck institut fuer meteorologie report, vol 162, p 38
Giorgi F, Mearns LO (1999) Introduction to special section: regional climate modeling revisited. J Geophys Res 104:6335–6352
Grell GA, Dévényi D (2002) A generalized approach to parameterizing convection combining ensemble and data assimilation techniques. Geophys Res Lett 29:1693. doi:10.1029/2002GL01531
Hoskins BJ, Hodges KI (2005) New perspectives on the Southern Hemisphere winter storm tracks. J Clim 18:4108–4129
Hourdin F, Musat I, Bony S, Braconnot P, Codron F, Dufresne J-L, Fairhead L, Filiberti M-A, Friedlingstein P, Grandpeix J-Y, Krinner G, LeVan P, Li Z-X, Lott F (2006) The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection. Clim Dyn 27:787–813
Hsie EY, Anthes RA, Keyser D (1984) Numerical simulation of frontogenesis in a moist atmosphere. J Atmos Sci 41:2581–2594
Jacob D (2001) A note on the simulation of the annual and inter-annual variability of the water budget over the Baltic Sea drainage basin. Met Atmos Phys 77:61–73
Jones CG, Sanchez E (2002) The representation of shallow cumulus convection and associated cloud fields in the Rossby Centre Atmospheric Model. HIRLAM newsletter 41, SMHI, SE-60176 Norrköping, Sweden, pp 91–106
Kain J, Fritsch J (1993) Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: the Kain-Fritsch scheme. In: Emanuell KA, Raymond DJ (eds) The representation of cumulus convection in numerical models. American Meteorological Society, Boston, pp 165–170
Kjellström E, Bärring L, Gollvik S, Hansson U, Jones C, Samuelsson P, Rummukainen M, Ullerstig A, Willén U, Wyser K (2005) A 140-year simulation of European climate with the new version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3). Reports Meteorology and Climatology No 108, SMHI, SE-60176 Norrköping, Sweden, 54 pp
Kodama YM (1993) Large-scale common features of the subtropical convergence zones (the Baiu frontal zone, the SPZ, and the SACZ). Part II: conditions of the circulations for generating the STCZs. J Meteorol Soc Japan 71:581–610
Krinner G, Viovy N, de-Noblet-Ducoudré N, Ogée J, Polcher J, Friedlingstein P, Ciais P, Sitch S, Prentice C (2005) A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere–biosphere system. Glob Chang Biol 19:1015–1048
Leung LR, Mearns LO, Giorgi F, Wilby RL (2003) Regional climate research needs and opportunities. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 84:89–95
Liebmann B, Kiladis GN, Vera CS, Saulo AC, Carvalho LMV (2004) Subseasonal variations of rainfall in South America in the vicinity of the low-level jet east of the Andes and comparison to those in the South Atlantic convergence zone. J Clim 17:3829–3842
Marengo JA (2007) Integrating across spatial and temporal scales in climate projections: challenges for using RCM projections to develop plausible scenarios for future extreme events in South America for vulnerability and impact studies. In: Meeting report (papers) of the IPCC TGICA regional expert meeting, Nadi, Fiji, 20–22 June 2007
Marengo JA, Soares WR, Saulo C, Nicolini M (2004) Climatology of the low-level jet east of the Andes as derived from the NCEP–NCAR reanalyses: characteristics and temporal variability. J Clim 17:2261–2280
Menéndez CG, Cabré MF, Nuñez MN (2004) Interannual and diurnal variability of January precipitation over subtropical South America simulated by a regional climate model. CLIVAR Exchanges 29:1–3
Menéndez CG, Sörensson AA, Samuelsson P, Willén U, Hansson U (2007) Simulating soil-precipitation feedbacks in South America. In: Meeting report (papers) of the IPCC TGICA regional expert meeting, Nadi, Fiji, 20–22 June 2007
Misra V, Dirmeyer PA, Kirtman BP (2003) Dynamic downscaling of seasonal simulations over South America. J Clim 16:103–117
Mlawer EJ, Taubman SJ, Brown PD, Iacono MJ, Clough SJ (1997) Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J Geophys Res 102D:16663–16682
Morcrette J-J (1991) Radiation and cloud radiative properties in the ECMWF operational weather forecast model. J Geophys Res 96D:9121–9132
Morcrette J-J, Smith L, Fourquart Y (1986) Pressure and temperature dependance of the absorption in longwave radiation parameterizations. Beitr Phys Atmos 59:455–469
Nesbitt SW, Zipser EJ (2003) The diurnal cycle of rainfall and convective intensity to three years of TRMM measurements. J Clim 16:1456–1475
New M, Hulme M, Jones P (1999) Representing twentieth-century space time climate variability. Part I. development of a 1961–1990 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J Clim 12:829–856
New M, Hulme M, Jones P (2000) Representing twentieth-century space time climate variability. Part II: development of 1901–1996 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. J Clim 13:2217–2238
Nogués-Paegle J, Mo KC (1997) Alternating wet and dry conditions over South America during summer. Mon Weather Rev 125:279–291
Nordeng TE (1994) Extended versions of the convective parametrization scheme at ECMWF and their impact on the mean and transient activity of the model in the tropics. ECMWF Research Department, Technical memorandum no 206, October 1994. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK, pp 41
Núñez M, Solman S, Cabré M (2006) Mean climate and annual cycle in a regional climate change experiment over Southern South America. II: climate change scenarios (2081–2090). In: Proceedings of 8 ICSHMO, 24–28 April 2006. Foz do Iguacu, Brazil, pp 325–331
Paegle J, Ambrizzi T, Berbery H, Campetella C, Garreaud R, Herdies D, Marengo J, Menéndez CG, Nicolini M, Porfirio da Rocha R, Ruiz J, Saulo CS, Seluchi M, Silva Dias PL (2004) Modeling studies related to SALLJEX. CLIVAR Exchanges 29:9–11
Räisänen P, Rummukainen M, Räisänen J (2000) Modification of the HIRLAM radiation scheme for use in the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model. Department of Meteorology, Report No 49, University of Helsinki, pp 71
Rasch PJ, Kristjánsson JE (1998) A comparison of the CCM3 model climate using diagnosed and predicted condensate parameterizations. J Clim 11:1587–1614
Rauscher SA, Seth A, Qian J-H, Camargo SJ (2006) Domain choice in an experimental nested modeling prediction system for South America. Theor Appl Climatol 86:229–246. doi:10.1007/s00704-006-0206-z
Rauscher SA, Seth A, Liebmann B, Qian J-H, Camargo SJ (2007) Regional climate model—simulated timing and character of seasonal rains in South America. Mon Weather Rev 135:2642–2657
Rodell M, Houser PR, Berg AA, Famiglietti JS (2005) Evaluation of 10 methods for initializing a land surface model. J Hydrometeorol 6:146–155
Samuelsson P, Gollvik S, Ullerstig A (2006) The land-surface scheme of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3). Report in meteorology 122, SMHI SE-601 76. Norrköping, Sweden
Sass BH, Rontu L, Savijärvi H, Räisänen P (1994) HIRLAM-2 Radiation scheme: documentation and tests. Hirlam technical report no 16, SMHI. SE-601 76 Norrköping, Sweden, 43 pp
Savijärvi H (1990) A fast radiation scheme for mesoscale model and short-range forecast models. J Appl Met 29:437–447
Seluchi ME, Marengo JA (2000) Tropical-midlatitude exchange of air masses during summer and winter in South America: climatic aspects and examples of intense events. Int J Climatol 20:1167–1190
Seth A, Rauscher SA, Camargo SJ, Qian J-H, Pal JS (2007) RegCM3 regional climatologies for South America using reanalysis and ECHAM global model driving fields. Clim Dyn 28:461–480. doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0191-z
Silva VBS, Berbery EH (2006) Intense rainfall events affecting the La Plata basin. J Hydrometeorol 7:769–787
Solman S, Nuñez M, Cabré MF (2007) Regional climate change experiments over southern South America. I: present climate. Clim Dyn 30:533–552. doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0304-3
Sörensson AA, Menéndez CG, Hansson U, Samuelsson P, Willén U (2007) Present and future climate as simulated by Rossby Centre regional atmosphere model (RCA3) forced by ECHAM5-OM over South America. Presentation at the CLARIS final meeting, La Plata, Argentina, June 2007
Stephens GL (1978) Radiation profiles in extended water clouds: II. Parameterization schemes. J Atmos Sci 35:2123–2132
Sundquist H (1978) A parameterization scheme for non-convective condensation including precipitation including prediction of cloud water content. Quart J R Met Soc 104:677–690
Tiedtke M (1989) A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large scale models. Mon Weather Rev 117:1779–1800
Uppala SM et al (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 131:2961–3012. doi:10.1256/qj.04.176
Velasco I, Fritsch JM (1987) Mesoscale convective complexes in the Americas. J Geophys Res 92(D8):9591–9613
Vernekar AD, Kirtman BP, Fennessy MJ (2003) Low-level jets and their effects on the South American summer climate as simulated by the NCEP ETA model. J Clim 16:297–311
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Open Access This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0), which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited.
About this article
Cite this article
Menéndez, C.G., de Castro, M., Boulanger, JP. et al. Downscaling extreme month-long anomalies in southern South America. Climatic Change 98, 379–403 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9739-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9739-3