The End-to-End Attribution Problem: From Emissions to Impacts
Rent the article at a discountRent now
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.Get Access
When a damaging extreme meteorological event occurs, the question often arises as to whether that event was caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The question is more than academic, since people affected by the event will be interested in recurring damages if they find that someone is at fault. However, since this extreme event could have occurred by chance in an unperturbed climate, we are currently unable to properly respond to this question. A solution lies in recognising the similarity with the cause-effect issue in the epidemiological field. The approach there is to consider the changes in the risk of the event occurring as attributable, as against the occurrence of the event itself. Inherent in this approach is a recognition that knowledge of the change in risk as well as the amplitude of the forcing itself are uncertain. Consequently, the fraction of the risk attributable to the external forcing is a probabilistic quantity. Here we develop and demonstrate this methodology in the context of the climate change problem.
- Allen, M. (2003) Liability for climate change. Nature 421: pp. 891-892 CrossRef
- Allen, M. R., Stainforth, D. A. (2002) Towards objective probabilistic climate forecasting. Nature 419: pp. 228 CrossRef
- Allen, M. R., Stott, P. A. (2003) Estimating signal amplitudes in optical fingerprinting. Part I. Theory. Clim. Dyn. 21: pp. 477-491 CrossRef
- Barsugli, J. J., Whitaker, J. S., Loughe, A. F., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Toth, Z. (1999) The effect of the 1997/1998 El Niño on individual large-scale events. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 80: pp. 1399-1411 CrossRef
- Dessai, S. and Hulme, M.: 2003, Does Climate Policy Need Probabilities?, Technical Report, Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 34.
- Greenland, S., Rothman, K. J. Chapter 4: Measures of effect and measures of association. In: Rothman, K. J., Greenland, S. eds. (1998) Modern Epidemiology. Lippincott-Raven Publishers, Philadelphia, USApp. 737
- Grossman, D. A. (2003) Warming up to a not-so-radical idea: Tort-based climate change litigation. Colum. J. Envtl. L. 28: pp. 1-61
- Institut de veille sanitaire: 2003, ‘Impact sanitaire de la vague de chaleur d’août 2003 en France. Bilan et perspectives’, 25 November, http://www.invs.sante.fr/publications/2003/bilan_chaleur_1103/.
- Lorenz, E. N. (1963) Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 20: pp. 130-141 CrossRef
- Mitchell, J. F. B., Karoly, D. J., Hegerl, G. C., Zwiers, F. W., Allen, M. R., Marengo, J. Chapter 12: Detection of climate change and attribution of causes. In: Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., Johnson, C. A. eds. (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UKpp. 881
- Palmer, T. N. (1999) A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate prediction. J. Clim. 12: pp. 575-591 CrossRef
- Palmer, T. N., Räisänen, J. (2002) Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate. Nature 415: pp. 512-514 CrossRef
- Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A., Allen, M. R. (2004) Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature 432: pp. 610-614 CrossRef
- The End-to-End Attribution Problem: From Emissions to Impacts
Volume 71, Issue 3 , pp 303-318
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Kluwer Academic Publishers
- Additional Links
- Industry Sectors
- Author Affiliations
- 1. Departments of Physics (AOPP) and Zoology, Clarendon Laboratory, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX2 6BD, U.K.
- 2. Department of Physics (AOPP), Clarendon Laboratory, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX2 6BD, U.K.