Skip to main content
Log in

Global Analysis of Changes in Water Supply Yields and Costs under Climate Change: A Case Study in China

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Using China as a case study, a methodology is presented to estimate the changes in yields and costs of present and future water production systems under climate change scenarios. Yield is important to consider because it measures the actual supply available from a river basin. Costs are incurred in enhancing the natural yield of river basins by the construction and operation of reservoirs and ground water pumping systems. The interaction of ground and surface waters within a river basin and instream flow maintenance are also modeled. The water demands considered are domestic, irrigation, and instream flow needs. We found that under climate change the maximum yields of some basins in China may increase or decrease, depending upon location, and that in some basins it may cost significantly more or it may not be possible to meet the demands. While our results for China could be improved with more hydrologic and economic data, we believe that the cost curves developed have suitable accuracy for initial analysis of water supply costs in Integrated Assessment Models.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alley, D.: 1984, ‘On the treatment of evapotranspiration, soil moisture accounting, and aquifer recharge in monthly water balance model’, Water Resources Res. 20(8), 1137–1149.

    Google Scholar 

  • Engineering News Record (ENR): Fourth Quarterly Cost Report, December, 18, 2000.

  • Falkenmark, M., Lundqvist, J. and Widstrand, C.: November 1989, ‘Macro-scale water scarcity requires micro-scale approaches’, Natural Resources Forum 13(4), 258–267.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fernandez, W., Vogel, R. M. and Sankarasubramanian, A.: 2000, ‘Regional calibration of a watershed model’, Hydrol. Sci. J. 45(5), 689–707.

    Google Scholar 

  • Flato, G. M., Boer, G. J., Lee, W. G., McFarlane, N. A., Ramsden, D., Reader, M.C. and Weaver, A. J.: 2000 ‘The Canadian centre for climate modelling and analysis global coupled model and its climate’, Clim. Dynamics 16(6), 451–467.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guowei, L. and Yifeng, C.: 1991, The Water Balance of China and its Large River Basins, Hydrology for the Management of Large River Basins, IAHS no. 201.

  • ICOLD: 1984, 1988, World Register of Dams, 1984 full edition and 1988 updating, International Commission on Large Dams, Paris.

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): 2001, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

    Google Scholar 

  • Johns, T. C., Carnell, R. E., Crossley, J. F., Gregory, J. M., Mitchell, J. F. B., Senior, C. A., Tett, S. F. B. and Wood, R. A.: 1997, ‘The second Hadley centre coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM: Model description, spinup and validation’, Clim. Dyn. 13, 103–134.

    Google Scholar 

  • Löf, George O. G. and Hardison, C.: 1996, ‘Storage requirements for water in the United States’, Water Resources Res. 2(3) 323–354.

    Google Scholar 

  • McCluskey, M.: September 2000, Development of River Basin Water Supply Cost Curves for Integrated Assessment Models: A Case Study of China, M.S. Thesis, Tufts University, Medford, MA.

  • Ministry of Water Resources: 1992, Water Resources Assessment for China, China Water and Power Press, Beijing.

    Google Scholar 

  • Njssen, B., O’Donnell, G. M., Hamlet, A. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: 2001, ‘Hydrologic sensitivity of global rivers to climate change’, Clim. Change 50, 143–175.

    Google Scholar 

  • Republic of China: 1979, Hydrologic Atlas of the People’ Republic of China, Peking, China.

  • Shiklomanov, I.: 2000, World Water Vision Global Water Supply and Demand Database, State Hydrologic Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shuttleworth, W. J.: 1993, ‘Evaporation in Maidmont, D. R. (ed.), Handbook of Hydrology, Chapter 4, McGraw-Hill, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Takeuchi, K.: 1997, ‘Least marginal environmental impact rule for reservoir development’, Hydrol. Sci. J. 42(4), 583–597.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas, H. A.: 1981, Improved Methods for National Water Assessment (report), contract WR 15249270, U.S. Water Resources Council, Washington, DC.

  • Thomas, H. A. Jr., and Burden, R. P.: 1963, Operations Research in Water Quality Management, Harvard Water Resources Group, Cambridge, MA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thomas, H. A., Martin, C. M., Brown, M. J. and Fiering, M. B.: 1983, Methodology for Water Resource Assessment, Report to U.S. Geological Survey, Rep. NTIS84-124163, Natl. Tech. Info. Serv., Springfield, VA.

  • United Nations, China: 1997, Water Resources and Their Use, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, New York.

  • United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization: 2003, Water for People, Water for Life, the United Nations World Water Development Report.

  • Vandewiele, G. L., C. Xu and Ni-Lar-Win: 1992, ‘Methodology and comparative study of monthly water balance models in belgium, China and Burma’, J. Hydrol 134(1–4), 315–347.

    Google Scholar 

  • Viner, D., The Climate Impacts LINK Project: 2000, Climate Data for the International Climate Change Research Community. Retrieved from http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/link/index.htm, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom.

  • Vorosmarty, C. J., Greeen, P., Salisbury, J., Lammers, R.: 2000, ‘Global water resources: Vulnerability from climatic change and population growth’, Science, 289(5477).

  • Vorosmarty, C. J., Li, C., Sun, J. and Dai, Z.: 1998, ‘Drainage basins, river systems, and anthropogenic change: The chinese example’, in Galloway, J. and Melillo, J. (eds.), Asian Change in the Context of Global Climate Change, Cambridge, UK, pp. 210–44. Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wollman, N. and Bonem, G. W.: 1971, The Outlook for Water, Resources for the Future, Inc., Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, MD.

    Google Scholar 

  • World Water Resources Institute: 2003. Retrieved from http://www.wri.org February 2003.

  • Xiong, L. and Guo, S.: 1999, ‘A two-parameter monthly water balance model and its application’, J. Hydrol. 216, 111–123.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yan, Jin and Xue, Q.: 1987, Irrigation and Drainage in China, China Water Resources and Electric Power Press, Beijing, China.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yates, David, WatBal.: 1996, ‘An integrated water balance model for climate impact assessment of river basin runoff’, Int. J. Water Res. Dev. 12(2).

  • Yoshino, Masatoshi, and S. Jilan 1998, Temperate Asia: The Regional Impacts of Climate Change, A Special Report of the IPCC Working Group II, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Paul Kirshen.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Kirshen, P., McCluskey, M., Vogel, R. et al. Global Analysis of Changes in Water Supply Yields and Costs under Climate Change: A Case Study in China. Climatic Change 68, 303–330 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-1148-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-1148-7

Keywords

Navigation