Abstract
A process-based approach to modelling the effects of land use change and climate change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems was applied at global scale. Simulations were run both with and without land use change. In the absence of land use change between 1700 and 1990, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was predicted to increase by 145 Pg C. When land use change was represented during this period, terrestrial ecosystems became a net source of 97 Pg C. Land use change was directly responsible for a flux of 222 Pg C, slightly higher but close to estimates from other studies. The model was then run between 1990 and 2100 with a climate simulated by a GCM. Simulations were run with three land use change scenarios: 1. no land use change; 2. land use change specified by the SRES B2 scenario, and; 3. land use change scaled with population change in the B2 scenario. In the first two simulations with no or limited land use change, the net terrestrial carbon sink was substantial (358 and 257 Pg C, respectively). However, with the population-based land-use change scenario, the losses of carbon through land use change were close to the carbon gains through enhanced net ecosystem productivity, resulting in a net sink near zero. Future changes in land use are highly uncertain, but will have a large impact on the future terrestrial carbon balance. This study attempts to provide some bounds on how land use change may affect the carbon sink over the nextcentury.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Besford, R. T., Mousseau, M., and Matteucci, G.: 1998, ‘Biochemistry, Physiology and Biophysics of Photosynthesis’, in Jarvis, P. G. (ed.), European Forests and Global Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 215–235.
Betts, R. A.: 2000, ‘Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo’, Nature 408, 187–190.
Brown, S., Lugo, A. E., and Chapman, J.: 1986, ‘Biomass of tropical tree plantations and its implications for the global carbon budget’, Can. J. Forest Res. 16, 390–394.
Ciais, P., Tans, P. P., Trolier, M., White, J. W. C., and Francey, R. J.: 1995, ‘A large northern-hemisphere terrestrial sink of CO2 indicated by the 13C/12C ratio of atmospheric CO2’, Science 269, 1098–1102.
Comins, H. N. and McMurtrie, R. E.: 1993, ‘Long-term response of nutrient-limited forests to CO2 enrichment – equilibrium behavior of plant-soil models’, Ecol. Appl. 3, 666–681.
Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Jones, C. D., Spall, S. A., and Totterdell, I. J.: 2000, ‘Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model’, Nature 408, 184–187.
Cramer, W.: 2001, ‘Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: Results from six dynamic global vegetation models’, Global Change Biol. 7, 357–373.
DeFries, R. S., Field, C. B., Fung, I., Collatz, G. J., and Bounoua, L.: 1999, ‘Combining satellite data and biogeochemical models to estimate global effects of human-induced land cover change on carbon emissions and primary productivity’, Global Biogeochem. Cycle 13, 803–815.
Dewar, R. C., Medlyn, B. E., and McMurtrie, R. E.: 1999, ‘Acclimation of the respiration photosynthesis ratio to temperature: Insights from a model’, Global Change Biol. 5, 615–622.
Douville, H., Planton, S., Royer, J. F., Stephenson, D. B., Tyteca, S., Kergoat, L., Lafont, S., and Betts, R. A.: 2000, ‘Importance of vegetation feedbacks in doubled-CO2 climate experiments’, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 105, 14841–14861.
Fahey, T. J.: 1983, ‘Nutrient dynamics of aboveground detritus in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta ssp. latifolia) ecosystems, southeastern Wyoming’, Ecol. Monogr. 53, 51–72.
Farquhar, G. D. and von Caemmerer, S.: 1982, ‘Modelling of Photosynthetic Response to Environmental Conditions’, in Lange, O. L., Nobel, P., Osmond, C. B. and Ziegler, H. (eds.), Physiological Plant Ecology II. Water Relations and Carbon Assimilation, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 549–587.
Friend, A. D., Stevens, A. K., Knox, R. G., and Cannell, M. G. R.: 1997, ‘A process-based, terrestrial biosphere model of ecosystem dynamics (Hybrid v3.0)’, Ecol. Model. 95, 249–287.
Friend, A. D. and White, A.: 2000, ‘Evaluation and analysis of a dynamic terrestrial ecosystem model under preindustrial conditions at the global scale’, Global Biogeochem. Cycle 14, 1173–1190.
Giardina, C. P. and Ryan, M. G.: 2000, ‘Evidence that decomposition rates of organic carbon in mineral soil do not vary with temperature’, Nature 404, 858–861.
Gifford, R. M.: 1995, ‘Whole plant respiration and photosynthesis of wheat under increased CO2 concentration and temperature: Long-term vs short-term distinctions for modelling’, Global Change Biol. 1, 385–396.
Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C. A., Banks, H., Gregory, J. M., Johns, T. C., Mitchell, J. F. B., and Wood, R. A.: 2000, ‘The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments’, Clim. Dyn. 16, 147–168.
Grier, C. C.: 1978, ‘A Tsuga heterophylla – Picea sitchensis ecosystem of coastal Oregon: decomposition and nutriant balance of fallen logs’, Can. J. Forest Res.-Rev. Can. Rech. For. 18, 198–206.
Gurney, K. R., Law, R. M., Denning, A. S., Rayner, P. J., Baker, D., Bousquet, P., Bruhwiler, L., Chen, Y. H., Ciais, P., Fan, S., Fung, I. Y., Gloor, M., Heimann, M., Higuchi, K., John, J., Maki, T., Maksyutov, S., Masarie, K., Peylin, P., Prather, M., Pak, B.C., Randerson, J., Sarmiento, J., Taguchi, S., Takahashi, T., and Yuen, C. W.: 2002, ‘Towards robust regional estimates of CO2 sources and sinks using atmospheric transport models’, Nature 415, 626–630.
Hao, W. M., Liu, M.-H., and Crutzen, P. J.: 1990, ‘Estimates of Annual and Regional Releases of CO2 and Other Trace Gases to the Atmosphere from Fires in the Tropics, Based on the FAO Statistics for the Period 1975–80’, in Goldammer, J. G. (ed.), Fire in the Tropical Biota. Ecosystem Processes and Global Challenges, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 440–462.
Houghton, R. A.: 1991, ‘Releases of carbon to the atmosphere from degradation of forests in Tropical Asia’, Can. J. For. Res.-Rev. Can. Rech. For. 21, 132–142.
Houghton, R. A.: 1995, ‘Land-use change and the carbon-cycle’, Global Change Biol. 1, 275–287.
Houghton, R. A.: 1999, ‘The annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use 1850–1990’, Tellus Ser. B Chem. Phys. Meteorol. 51, 298–313.
Houghton, R. A. and Hackler, J. L.: 1995, Continental Scale Estimates of the Biotic Carbon Flux from Land Cover Change: 1850 to 1980, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, ORNL/CDIAC-79: 144.
Houghton, R. A. and Hackler, J. L.: 1999, ‘Emissions of carbon from forestry and land-use change in tropical Asia’, Global Change Biol. 5, 481–492.
Houghton, R. A., Hobbie, J. E., Melillo, J. M., Moore, B., Peterson, B. J., Shaver, G. R., and Woodwell, G. M.: 1983, ‘Changes in the carbon content of terrestrial biota and soils between 1860 and 1980: A net release of CO2 to the atmosphere’, Ecol. Monogr. 53, 235–262.
Houghton, R. A., Lefkowitz, D. S., and Skole, D. L.: 1991, ‘Changes in the landscape of Latin America between 1850 and 1985. II. Net release of CO2 to the atmosphere’, Forest Ecol. Manage. 38, 173–199.
Houghton, R. A., Lefkowitz, D. S., and Skole, D. L.: 1991, ‘Changes in the landscape of Latin-America between 1850 and 1985. 1. Progressive loss of forests’, Forest Ecol. Manage. 38, 143–172.
House, J. I., Prentice, I. C., and Le Quere, C.: 2002, ‘Maximum impacts of future reforestation or deforestation on atmospheric CO2’, Global Change Biol. 8, 1047–1052.
IPCC: 2000, Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 612 pp.
John, D. M.: 1973, ‘Accumulation and decay of litter and net production of forest in tropical West Africa’, Oikos 24, 430–435.
Johns, T. C., Gregory, J. M., Ingram, W. J., Johnson, C. E., Jones, A., Lowe, J. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Roberts, D. L., Sexton, D. M. H., Stevenson, D. S., Tett, S. F. B., and Woodage, M. J.: 2003, ‘Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios’, Clim. Dyn. 20, 583–612.
Keeling, C. D., Chin, J. F. S., and Whorf, T. P.: 1996, ‘Increased activity of northern vegetation inferred from atmospheric CO2 measurements’, Nature 382, 146–149.
Lugo, A. E., Sanchez, M. J., and Brown, S.: 1986, ‘Land use and organic carbon content of some subtropical soils’, Plant Soil 96, 185–196.
Martin, M., Dickinson, R. E., and Yang, Z. L.: 1999, ‘Use of a coupled land surface general circulation model to examine the impacts of doubled stomatal resistance on the water resources of the American southwest’, J. Clim. 12, 3359–3375.
McGuire, A. D., Sitch, S., Clein, J. S., Dargaville, R., Esser, G., Foley, J., Heimann, M., Joos, F., Kaplan, J., Kicklighter, D. W., Meier, R. A., Melillo, J. M., Moore, B., Prentice, I. C., Ramankutty, N., Reichenau, T., Schloss, A., Tian, H., Williams, L. J., and Wittenberg, U.: 2001, ‘Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: Analyses of CO2, climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models’, Global Biogeochem. Cycle 15, 183–206.
Nepstad, D. C., Uhl, C., and Serrao, E. A. S.: 1991, ‘Recuperation of a degraded Amazonian landscape – forest recovery and agricultural restoration’, Ambio 20, 248–255.
Olson, J. S., Watts, J. A., and Allison, L. J.: 1983, Carbon in Live Vegetation of Major World Ecosystems, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 154 pp.
Parton, W. J., Schimel, D. S., Cole, C. V., and Ojima, D. S.: 1987, ‘Analysis of factors controlling soil organic matter levels in Great Plains grasslands’, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 51, 1173–1179.
Prentice I. C., et al.: 2001, ‘The carbon cycle and atmospheric carbon dioxide’, in Houghton, J. T., et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 183–238.
Ramankutty, N. and Foley, J. A.: 1999, ‘Estimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to 1992’, Global Biogeochem. Cycle 13, 997–1027.
Ramankutty, N., Foley, J. A., Norman, J., and McSweeney, K.: 2002, ‘The global distribution of cultivable lands: Current patterns and sensitivity to possible climate change’, Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 11, 377–392.
Raupach, M. R.: 1998, ‘Influences of local feedbacks on land-air exchanges of energy and carbon’, Global Change Biol. 4, 477–494.
Reynolds, J. H. and Ford, E. D.: 1999, ‘Multi-criteria assessment of ecological process models’, Ecology 80, 538–553.
Ryan, M. G.: 1991, ‘Effects of climate change on plant respiration’, Ecol. Appl. 1, 157–167.
Saldarriaga, J. G.: 1987, ‘Recovery following shifting cultivation’, in Jordan, C. F. (ed.), Amazonian Rain Forests, Springer-Verlag, New York, pp. 24–33.
Sellers, P. J., Berry, J. A., Collatz, G. J., Field, C. B., and Hall, F. G.: 1992, ‘Canopy reflectance, photosynthesis, and transpiration. 3. A reanalysis using improved leaf models and a new canopy integration scheme’, Remote Sens. Environ. 42, 187–216.
Thornley, J. H. M. and Cannell, M. G. R.: 2000, ‘Modelling the components of respiration: Representation and realism’, Ann. Bot. 85, 55–67.
Uusivuori, J., Lehto, E., and Palo, M.: 2002, ‘Population, income and ecological conditions as determinants of forest area variation in the tropics’, Global Environ. Change Human Policy Dimens. 12, 313–323.
van Veen, J. A. and Kuikman, P. J.: 1990, ‘Soil structure’, Biogeochemistry 11, 213–233.
Voroney, R. P. and Angers, D. A.: 1995, ‘Analysis of the Short-Term Effects of Management on Soil Organic Matter Using the CENTURY Model’, in Lal, R., Kimble, J., Levine, E. and Stewart, B. A. (eds.), Soil Management and Greenhouse Effect, Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton, pp. 113–120.
Waring, R. H., Landsberg, J. J. and Williams, M.: 1998, ‘Net primary production of forests: a constant fraction of gross primary production?’, Tree Physiol. 18, 129–134.
Waring, R. H. and Running, S. W.: 1998, Forest Ecosystems: Analysis at Multiple Scales, Academic Press, San Diego, 370 pp.
White, A., Cannell, M. G. R., and Friend, A. D.: 1999, ‘Climate change impacts on ecosystems and the terrestrial carbon sink: a new assessment’, Global Environ. Change Human Policy Dimens. 9, S21–S30.
White, A., Cannell, M. G. R., and Friend, A. D.: 2000, ‘CO2 stabilization, climate change and the terrestrial carbon sink’, Global Change Biol. 6, 817–833.
White, A., Cannell, M. G. R., and Friend, A. D.: 2000, ‘The high-latitude terrestrial carbon sink: A model analysis’, Global Change Biol. 6, 227–245.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Levy, P.E., Friend, A.D., White, A. et al. ‘The Influence of Land Use Change On Global-Scale Fluxes of Carbon from Terrestrial Ecosystems’. Climatic Change 67, 185–209 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-004-2849-z
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-004-2849-z