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Priority effects can lead to underestimation of dispersal and invasion potential

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Abstract

Molecular analyses are frequently used to assess biological gene flow and dispersal, yet recent data suggest that the operation of density-dependent priority effects often leads to underestimation of species movement patterns and associated invasive potential. Although individual movement is broadly considered to promote connectivity among populations, emerging genetic evidence on a range of scales indicates that it often fails to do so; instead, it can be a strategy that allows first colonizers to wedge a ‘foot in the door’ when new space becomes available. Founding lineages can then rapidly dominate, blocking colonization by later arrivals; subsequent invasion opportunities may be contingent on the extirpation of locals. Many contemporary studies, however, ignore the role of such density-dependent priority effects, and thus fail to assess major differences between movement and establishment. Understanding the role of these processes in the successful establishment of dispersing organisms is critical if we are to predict distributional range shifts and deal with invasive pest species.

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Acknowledgments

We thank J. Russell and A. Veale for information on rodent and stoat invasions; G. Hewitt for crucial insights into density blocking processes; K. Ikin and A. Veale for comments on early drafts; and H. Buckley and an anonymous reviewer for comments that improved the manuscript. Images used in figures were free-use and/or used with permission: S. Boessenkool (Megadyptes antipodes); R. McKenna (Rattus norvegicus); P. Garvey (Mustela erminea).

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  1. Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Linnaeus Way, Canberra, ACT, 0200, Australia

    Ceridwen I. Fraser & Sam C. Banks

  2. Allan Wilson Centre for Molecular Ecology and Evolution, Department of Zoology, University of Otago, 340 Great King Street, Dunedin, 9016, New Zealand

    Jonathan M. Waters

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  1. Ceridwen I. Fraser
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  2. Sam C. Banks
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Correspondence to Ceridwen I. Fraser.

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Fraser, C.I., Banks, S.C. & Waters, J.M. Priority effects can lead to underestimation of dispersal and invasion potential. Biol Invasions 17, 1–8 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-014-0714-1

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