Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Modelling the potential geographic distribution of invasive ant species in New Zealand

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Biological Invasions Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Despite their economic and environmental impacts, there have been relatively few attempts to model the distribution of invasive ant species. In this study, the potential distribution of six invasive ant species in New Zealand are modelled using three fundamentally different methods (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MAXENT). Species records were obtained from museum collections in New Zealand. There was a significant relationship between the length of time an exotic species had been present in New Zealand and its geographic range. This is the first time such a time lag has been described for exotic ant species, and shows there is a considerable time lag in their spread. For example, it has taken many species several decades (40–60 years) to obtain a distribution of 17–25% of New Zealand regions. For all six species, BIOCLIM performed poorly compared to the other two modelling methods. BIOCLIM had lower AUC scores and higher omission error, suggesting BIOCLIM models under-predicted the potential distribution of each species. Omission error was significantly higher between models fitted with all 19 climate variables compared to those models with fewer climate variables for BIOCLIM, but not DOMAIN or MAXENT. Widespread species had a greater commission error. A number of regions in New Zealand are predicted to be climatically suitable for the six species modelled, particularly coastal and lowland areas of both the North and South Islands.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Anderson RP, Lew D, Peterson AT (2003) Evaluating predictive models of species’ distributions: criteria for selecting optimal models. Ecol Modell 162:211–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beaumont LJ, Hughes L, Poulsen M (2005) Predicting species distribution: use of climatic parameters in BIOCLIM and its impact on predictions of species’ current and future distributions. Ecol Modell 186:250–269

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown WL (1958) A review of the ants of New Zealand. Acta Hymenopterologica 1:1–50

    Google Scholar 

  • Carpenter G, Gillison AN, Winte J (1993) DOMAIN: a flexible modeling procedure for mapping potential distributions of plants, animals. Biodivers Conserv 2:667–680

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christian CE (2001) Consequences of a biological invasion reveal the importance of mutualism for plant communities. Nature 413:635–638

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Clarke KR, Warwick RM (2005) Change in marine communities: an approach to statistical analysis and interpretation, 2nd edn. Plymouth Marine Laboratory

  • Crosby TK, Dugdale JS, Watt JC (1998) Area codes for recording specimen localities in the New Zealand subregion. N Z J Zool 25:175–183

    Google Scholar 

  • Drake JA, Mooney HA, di Castri F, Groves RH, Kruger FJ, Rejmanek M, Williamson M (1989) Biological invasions: a global perspective. John Wiley and Sons, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP, Dudík M, Ferrier S, Guisan A, Hijmans RJ, Huettmann F, Leathwick JR, Lehmann A, Li J, Lohmann LG, Loiselle BA, Manion G, Moritz C, Nakamura M, Nakazawa Y, Overton J.McC, Peterson AT, Phillips SJ, Richardson K, Scachetti-Pereira R, Schapire RE, Soberón J, Williams S, Wisz MS, Zimmermann NE (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29:129–151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fielding AH, Bell JF (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ Conserv 24:38–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guisan A, Thuiller W (2005) Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol Lett 8:993–1009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guisan A, Zimmermann NE (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol Modell 135:147–186

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hartley S, Lester PJ (2003) Temperature-dependent development of the Argentine ant, Linepithema humile (Mayr) (Hymenoptera: Formicidae): a degree-day model with implications for range limits in New Zealand. New Zeal Entomol 26:91–100

    Google Scholar 

  • Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25:1965–1978

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hölldobler B, Wilson EO (1990) The ants. Harvard University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Holway DA, Suarez AV (2006) Homogenization of ant communities in Mediterranean California: the effects of urbanisation and invasion. Biol Conserv 127:319–326

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holway DA, Lach L, Suarez AV, Tsutsui ND, Case TJ (2002) The causes and consequences of ant invasions. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 33:181–233

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Landcare Research (2006) New Zealand ant distribution data. Accessed April 2006 http://www.landcareresearch.co.nz/research/biosecurity/stowaways/Ants/distribution/index.asp

  • Loiselle BA, Howell CA, Graham CH, Goerck JM, Brooks T, Smith KG, Williams PH (2003) Avoiding pitfalls of using species distribution models in conservation planning. Conserv Biol 17:1591–1600

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaspari M, Alonso A, O’Donnell S (2000) Three energy variables predict ant abundance at a geographical scale. Proc R Soc Lond B 267:485–489

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Korzukhin MD, Porter SD, Thompson LC, Wiley S (2001) Modelling temperature-dependent range limits for the fire ant Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in the United States. Environ Entomol 30:645–655

    Google Scholar 

  • Kriticos DJ, Randell RP (2001) A comparison of systems to analyse potential weed distribution. In: Groves RH, Panetta FD, Virtue JG (eds) Weed risk assessment. CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood

    Google Scholar 

  • Mack RN, Simberloff D, Lonsdale WM, Evans H, Clout MN, Bazzaz FA (2000) Biotic invasions: casues, epidemiology, global consequences, and control. Ecol Appl 10:689–710

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meynecke JO (2004) Effects of global climate change on geographic distributions of vertebrates in North Queensland. Ecol Modell 174:347–357

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGlynn TP (1999) The worldwide transfer of ants: geographical distribution and ecological invasions. J Biogeogr 26:535–548

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mooney HA, Drake JA (eds) (1986) Ecology of biological invasions of North America and Hawaii. Springer-Verlag, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Morrison LW, Porter SD, Daniels E, Korzukhin MD (2003) Potential global range expansion of the invasive fire ant, Solenopsis invicta. Biol Invasions 6:183–191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nix H (1986) A biogeographic analysis of Australian Elapid snakes. In: Longmore R (ed) Snakes: atlas of Elapid snakes of Australia. Bureau of Flora and Fauna, Canberra

    Google Scholar 

  • O’Dowd DJ, Green PT, Lake PS (2003) Invasional ‘meltdown’ on an oceanic island. Ecol Lett 6:812–817

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peterson AT (2003) Predicting the geography of species’ invasions via ecological niche modeling. Q Rev Biol 78:419–433

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Phillips SJ, Dudik M, Schapire RE (2004) A maximum entropy approach to species distribution modelling. In: Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Machine Learning. ACM Press, New York

  • Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol Modell 190:231–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pimm SL, Bartell DP (1980) Statistical model for predicting range expansion of the Red Imported Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta, in Texas. Environ Entomol 9:653–658

    Google Scholar 

  • Puth LM, Post DM (2005) Studying invasion: have we missed the boat?. Ecol Lett 8:715–721

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roura-Pascual N, Suarez AV, Gómez C, Pons P, Touyama Y, Wild AL, Peterson AT (2004) Geographical potential of Argentine ants (Linepithema humile Mayr) in the face of global climate change. Proc R Soc Lond B 271:2527–2535

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sandland OT, Schei PJ, Viken A (eds) (1999) Invasive species and biodiversity management. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht

    Google Scholar 

  • Segurado P, Araújo MB (2004) An evaluation of methods for modelling species distributions. J Biogeogr 31:1555–1568

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stoker RL, Ferris DK, Grant WE, Folse LJ (1994) Simulating colonization by exotic species: a model of the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta) in North America. Ecol Modell 73:281–292

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suarez AV, Tsutsui ND (2004) The value of museum collections for research and society. Bioscience 54:66–74

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suarez AV, Holway DA, Case TJ (2001) Patterns of spread in biological invasions dominated by long-distance jump dispersal: Insights from Argentine ants. Proc Natl Acad Sci 98:1095–1100

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Suarez AV, Holway DA, Ward PS (2005) The role of opportunity in the unintentional introduction of non-native ants. Proc Natl Acad Sci 102:17032–17035

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Sutherst RW, Maywald G (2005) A climate model of the Red Imported Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae): implications for invasion of new regions, particularly Oceania. Environ Entomol 34:317–335

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Téllez-Valdés O, Dávila-Aranda P (2003) Protected areas and climate change: a case study of the Cacti in the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Biosphere Reserve, México. Conserv Biol 17:846–853

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vega SJ, Rust MK (2001) The Argentine ant—a significant invasive species in agricultural, urban and natural environments. Sociobiology 37:3–25

    Google Scholar 

  • Ward DF (2005) Changes to the classification of ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae). The Weta 30:16–18

    Google Scholar 

  • Ward DF, Harris R (2005) Invasibility of native habitats by Argentine Ants, Linepithema humile, in New Zealand. N Z J Ecol 29:215–219

    Google Scholar 

  • Ward DF, Beggs JR, Clout MN, Harris RJ, O’Connor S (2006) The diversity and origin of exotic ants arriving to New Zealand via human-mediated dispersal. Diversity and Distributions. 12:601–609

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ward DF, Harris RJ, Stanley MC (2005) Human-mediated range expansion of Argentine ants Linepithema humile (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in New Zealand. Sociobiology 45:401–407

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams DF (1994) Exotic ants: biology, impact, and control of introduced species. Westview Press, Boulder Colorado

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams PA, Cameron EK (2006) Creating gardens: the diversity and progression of European plant introductions. In: Allen RB and Lee WG (eds) Biological invasions in New Zealand. Springer-Verlag, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Zaniewski AE, Lehmann A, Overton JMcC (2002) Predicting species spatial distributions using presence-only data: a case study of native New Zealand ferns. Ecol Modell 157:261–280

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

Many thanks to Richard Harris for access to database records, and to Steve Phillips and Robert Hijmans for their assistance with software. Thanks to Jacqueline Beggs, Mick Clout and Margaret Stanley for comments on earlier versions of this manuscript. This work was supported by the Entomological Society of New Zealand, Landcare Research (FRST C09X0507), and a FRST doctoral scholarship.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, Tamaki Campus, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand

    Darren F. Ward

Authors
  1. Darren F. Ward
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Darren F. Ward.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Ward, D.F. Modelling the potential geographic distribution of invasive ant species in New Zealand. Biol Invasions 9, 723–735 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-006-9072-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-006-9072-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation