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Development and application of a real-time loss estimation framework for Portugal

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Abstract

Portugal has its past marked by the occurrence of very destructive earthquakes. In the well-known 1755 Lisbon earthquake, more than 50 % of the building stock was heavily damaged or destroyed and about 10 % of the population in Lisbon perished. In the beginning of the last century, a moderate event of magnitude 6.0 Mw struck the village of Benavente, causing 46 fatalities and damaging more than 3000 dwellings. The Portuguese building stock in highly populated centres is characterized by a large fraction of masonry buildings, which typically have a higher seismic vulnerability. For these reasons, it is clear that a reliable and accurate platform for damage estimation based on deterministic earthquake scenarios is fundamental, in order to create adequate post-disaster response plans, or to understand which structure types are contributing to the human and economic losses. This study provides an overview of the initial development of this framework for Portugal, as well as a description of the components and input models required for the generation of the seismic input and estimation of damage. In order to demonstrate the capabilities of the platform, two seismic events were considered to assess structural damage throughout mainland Portugal. This framework has been established at the Faculty of Engineering of the University of Porto. It allows earthquake engineers and seismic risk modelers to access damage information and to launch calculations of losses for scenario events. The products can also be of interest to experts and decision makers, who may wish to consider specific types of outputs such as the distribution of building damage, fatalities and the number of homeless.

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Acknowledgments

The Authors would like to express their gratitude to Dr. Joao Carvalho from the National Laboratory of Energy and Geology (LNEG), Dr. Alexandra Carvalho from the National Laboratory of Civil Engineering (LNEC) and Dr. Susana Vilanova from the Instituto Superior Tecnico (IST) for their valuable contribution on the development of the site conditions model. The Authors are also grateful for the unconditional support of Dr. Fernando Carrilho from the Portuguese Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA), regarding the use of the Portuguese Seismographic Network. The numerous recommendations from Dr. Graeme Weatherill, Dr. Helen Crowley and Dr. Rui Pinho from the EUCENTRE, and Engineer José Oliveira from the Portuguese Civil Protection, were also fundamental in the development of the platform presented herein. Finally, the Authors are also grateful for the suggestions of the two anonymous reviewers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Civil Engineering Department, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal

    Vitor Silva

  2. Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal

    Mário Marques, José Miguel Castro & Humberto Varum

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  1. Vitor Silva
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Correspondence to Vitor Silva.

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Silva, V., Marques, M., Castro, J.M. et al. Development and application of a real-time loss estimation framework for Portugal. Bull Earthquake Eng 13, 2493–2516 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9743-0

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