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Seismic risk assessment for mainland Portugal

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Abstract

The assessment of the seismic risk at a national scale represents an important resource in order to introduce measures that may reduce potential losses due to future earthquakes. This evaluation results from the combination of three components: seismic hazard, structural vulnerability and exposure data. In this study, a review of existing studies focusing on each one of these areas is carried out, and used together with data from the 2011 Building Census in Portugal to compile the required input models for the evaluation of seismic hazard and risk. In order to better characterize the epistemic uncertainty in the calculations, several approaches are considered within a logic tree structure, such as the consideration of different seismic source zonations, the employment of vulnerability functions derived based on various damage criteria and the employment of distinct spatial resolutions in the exposure model. The aim of this paper is thus to provide an overview of the recent developments regarding the different aspects that influence the seismic hazard and risk in Portugal, as well as an up-to-date identification of the regions that are more vulnerable to earthquakes, together with the expected losses for a probability of exceedance of 10 % in 50 years. The results from the present study were obtained through the OpenQuake engine, the open-source software for seismic risk and hazard assessment developed within the global earthquake model (GEM) initiative.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to express their gratitude to Dr. Anabela Ramos, Dr. Susana Vilanova and Dr. Graeme Weatherill for their valuable suggestions in the investigation of the influence of soil conditions and calculation of the seismic hazard. The Authors would like also to acknowledge Dr. Carlos Oliveira and Dr. Joao Fonseca for their critical reviews and recommendations that significantly improved the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Civil Engineering Department, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal

    Vitor Silva & Humberto Varum

  2. GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy

    Vitor Silva, Helen Crowley & Rui Pinho

  3. Civil Engineering and Architecture Department, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy

    Rui Pinho

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  1. Vitor Silva
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  2. Helen Crowley
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Correspondence to Vitor Silva.

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Silva, V., Crowley, H., Varum, H. et al. Seismic risk assessment for mainland Portugal. Bull Earthquake Eng 13, 429–457 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-014-9630-0

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