Abstract
Community psychologists have a long history of interest in understanding social systems and how to bring about enduring positive change in these systems. However, the methods that community psychologists use to anticipate and evaluate the changes that result from system change efforts are less well developed. In the current paper, we introduce readers to system dynamics modeling, an action research approach to studying complex systems and the consequences of system change. We illustrate this approach by describing a system dynamics model of educational reform. We provide readers with an introduction to system dynamics modeling, as well as describe the strengths and limitations of the approach for application to community psychology.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
These patterns may also be used as reference modes. Reference modes are typical patterns of behavior that the system has been observed to produce.
One must be careful if the scales used are interval, because the time series patterns of Likert-type scales may differ from patterns generated by using a ratio scale technique. This problem has been addressed by Levine and Fitzgerald (1992).
In a recent project on health care, for example, we used meta-analytic data to quantify the average effectiveness of a particular type of program and the range of effectiveness.
References
Alfeld, L., & Graham, A. (1976). Introduction to urban dynamics. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
Forrester, J. (1961). Industrial dynamics. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
Forrester, J. (1969). Urban dynamics. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
Goodman, M. R. (1974). Study notes in system dynamics. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
Graham, A. K. (1980). Parameter estimation in system dynamics modeling. In J. Randers (Ed.), Elements of the system dynamics method (pp. 224–245). Cambridge, MA: Productivity Press.
Hirsch, G. (1976). The causes of patient drop-out from mental health services. In G. Levin & E. B. Roberts (Eds.), The dynamics of human service delivery (pp. 41–66). Cambridge, MA: Ballenger Publishing Company.
Hirsch, G. B. (1998) Innovation in schools: A model to help structure the discussion and guide the search for strategies. Acton, MA: The Creative Learning Exchange, available at www.clexchange.org.
Hirsch, G. B., & Immediato, C. S. (1998). Design of simulators to enhance learning: Examples from a health care microworld. Proceedings of the 16th international system dynamics society conference. Quebec City, Canada.
Hirsch, G. B., & Immediato, C. S. (1999). Microworlds and generic structures as resources for integrating care and improving health. System Dynamics Review, 15, 315–330.
Homer, J., Hirsch, G., Minniti, M., & Pierson, M. (2004). Models for collaboration: How system dynamics helped a community organize cost-effective care for chronic illness. System Dynamics Review, 20, 199–222.
Homer, J., & Milstein, B. (2002). Communities with multiple afflictions: A system dynamics approach to the study and prevention of syndemics. Proceedings of the 20th international system dynamics conference. Palermo, Italy. Available at: http://www.systemdynamics.org/conf2002/papers/Homer1.pdf.
Kelly, J. G. (1968). Toward an ecological conception of preventive interventions. In J. W. Carter (Ed.), Research contributions from psychology to community health (pp. 76–100). New York: Behavioral Publications, Inc.
Kelly, J. G. (1987). An ecological paradigm: Defining mental health consultation as a preventive service. In J. G. Kelly & R. E. Hess (Eds.), The ecology of prevention: Illustrating mental health consultation (pp. 1–35). New York: Haworth Press.
Levine, R. L., & Fitzgerald, H. (1992). Analysis of dynamic psychological systems: Basic approaches to general systems, dynamic systems, and cybernetics (Vol. 1). New York: Plenum Press.
Lounsbury, D. W. (2002). Understanding the dynamics of prevention, care, and empowerment: A systems approach to HIV/AIDS policy innovation. Unpublished doctoral dissertation. Michigan State University, East Lansing.
Luke, D. A. (2005). Getting the big picture in community science: Methods that capture context. American Journal of Community Psychology, 35, 185–200.
Luna-Reyes, L. F., & Andersen, D. L. (2003). Collecting and analyzing qualitative data for system dynamics: Methods and models. System Dynamics Review, 19, 271–290.
Miller, R. L, Levine, R., Khamarko, K., Valenti, M., & McNall, M. (2006). Recruiting clients to a community-based HIV-prevention program: A dynamic model. Proceedings of the 24th international conference of the system dynamics society conference. Nijmegen, Netherlands.
Peterson, D. (1980). Statistical tools for system dynamics. In J. Randers (Ed.), Elements of the system dynamics method (pp. 224–245). Cambridge, MA: Productivity Press.
Repenning, N. A. (2002). A simulation-based approach to understanding the dynamics of innovation implementation. Organization Science, 13, 109–127.
Roberts, N. (1976a). The structure of student-teacher interaction in the elementary classroom. In G. Levin & E. B. Roberts (Eds.), The dynamics of human service delivery (pp. 93–103). Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Company.
Roberts N. (1976b). A computer analysis of student performance. In G. Levin & E. B. Roberts (Eds.), The dynamics of human service delivery (pp. 105–145). Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Company.
Sarason, S. B. (2000). Barometers of community change. In J. Rappaport & E. Seidman (Eds.), Handbook of community psychology (pp. 919–929). New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers.
Seidman, E. (1988). Back to the future, community psychology: Unfolding a theory of social intervention. American Journal of Community Psychology, 16, 3–24.
Sterman J. D. (2000). Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill.
Trickett, E. J., Kelly, J. G., & Vincent, T. (1985). The spirit of ecological inquiry in community psychology. In E. C. Susskind & D. C. Klein (Eds.), Community research (pp. 283–333). New York: Praeger.
Van den Belt, M. (2004). Mediated modeling: A system dynamics approach to environmental consensus building. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hirsch, G.B., Levine, R. & Miller, R.L. Using system dynamics modeling to understand the impact of social change initiatives. Am J Community Psychol 39, 239–253 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10464-007-9114-3
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10464-007-9114-3