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Multi-temporal ecological analysis of Jeffrey pine beetle outbreak dynamics within the Lake Tahoe Basin

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Population Ecology

Abstract

From 1991 to 1996, Jeffrey pine beetles (Dendroctonus jeffreyi Hopkins) (JPB) caused tree mortality throughout the Lake Tahoe Basin during a severe drought. Census data were collected annually on 10,721 trees to assess patterns of JPB-caused mortality. This represents the most extensive tree-level, spatiotemporal dataset collected to-date documenting bark beetle activity. Our study was an exploratory assessment of characteristics associated with the probability of successful JPB mass-attack (P JPB) and group aggregation behavior that occurred throughout various outbreak phases. Numerous characteristics associated with P JPB varied by outbreak phase although population pressure and forest density had positive associations during all phases. During the incipient phase, JPBs caused mortality in individual trees and small groups within toeslope topographic positions and P JPB had a negative relationship with stem diameter. In the epidemic phase, JPB activity occurred in all topographic positions and caused mortality in spatially expanding clusters. P JPB had a curvilinear relationship with tree diameter and a negative relationship with proximity to nearest brood tree. Majority (92–96 %) of mass-attacked trees were within 30 m of a brood tree during the peak epidemic years. During the post-epidemic phase, mortality clusters progressively decreased while dispersal distances between mass-attacked and brood trees increased. Post-epidemic P JPB had a negative relationship with stem diameter and mortality was concentrated in the mid and upper-slope topographic positions. Results indicate mortality predictions are reasonable for the epidemic phase but not for incipient and post-epidemic phases. Ecological factors influencing JPB-caused tree mortality, clustered mortality patterns, and transitions from environmental to dynamic determinism are discussed.

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Acknowledgments

This study could not have occurred without the vision, study area establishment, and monitoring surveys pioneered by John Wenz, retired U.S. Forest Service. This work was funded by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Health Protection through a Standard Technology Development Program grant (R5-2010-05). Additional funding was provided by Seattle University’s 2011 College of Science and Engineering Undergraduate Research Program. This manuscript was improved substantially following comments provided by Russell Parsons and two peers that provided anonymous review. This work could not have been completed without collaboration with the Nevada State Division of Forestry that allowed pest monitoring on state-managed lands. Our special thanks go to Susan Skalski for agreement support, Jim Schmidt for GIS support, Tashia Steele for assistance with coordinate validation, and Martin MacKenzie, Beverly Bulaon, Danny Cluck, Sheri Smith, and Gregg DeNitto for supporting this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Forest Health Protection, USDA Forest Service, Missoula, MT, USA

    Joel M. Egan

  2. Department of Mathematics, Seattle University, Seattle, WA, USA

    J. McLean Sloughter

  3. TerraStat Consulting Group, Seattle, WA, USA

    Tamre Cardoso

  4. Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, USA

    Patrick Trainor

  5. Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA

    Ke Wu

  6. Pacific Southwest Region, USDA Forest Service, Vallejo, CA, USA

    Hugh Safford

  7. Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA, USA

    Hugh Safford

  8. Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit, USDA Forest Service, South Lake Tahoe, CA, USA

    Dave Fournier

  9. 26 Fort Missoula Road, Missoula, MT, 59804, USA

    Joel M. Egan

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Egan, J.M., Sloughter, J.M., Cardoso, T. et al. Multi-temporal ecological analysis of Jeffrey pine beetle outbreak dynamics within the Lake Tahoe Basin. Popul Ecol 58, 441–462 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-016-0545-2

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