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Cognitive and institutional influences on farmers’ adaptive capacity: insights into barriers and opportunities for transformative change in central Arizona

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Abstract

The prospect of unprecedented environmental change, combined with increasing demand on limited resources, demands adaptive responses at multiple levels. In this article, we analyze different attributes of farm-level capacity in central Arizona, USA, in relation to farmers’ responses to recent dynamism in commodity and land markets, and the institutional and social contexts of farmers’ water and production portfolios. Irrigated agriculture is at the heart of the history and identity of the American Southwest, although the future of agriculture is now threatened by the prospect of “mega-droughts,” urbanization and associated inter-sector and inter-state competition over water in an era of climatic change. We use farm-level survey data, supplemented by in-depth interviews, to explore the cross-level dimensions of capacity in the agriculture–urban nexus of central Arizona. The surveyed farmers demonstrate an interest in learning, capacity for adaptive management and risk-taking attitudes consistent with emerging theory of capacity for land use and livelihood transformation. However, many respondents perceive their self-efficacy in the face of future climatic and hydrological change as uncertain. Our study suggests that the components of transformational capacity will necessarily need to go beyond the objective resources and cognitive capacities of individuals to incorporate “linking” capacities: the political and social attributes necessary for collective strategy formation to shape choice and opportunity in the future.

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Acknowledgments

The research presented here was funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Sectoral Applications Research Program, CSI Award #NA110AR4310123, H. Eakin, PI, with additional support through the National Science Foundation under Grant SES-0951366, Decision Center for a Desert City II: Urban Climate Adaptation. All findings presented are the responsibility of the authors, not the funding agencies. We greatly appreciate the support and participation of the Arizona Cotton Growers Association and Ayman Mostafa of the University of Arizona Maricopa County Extension Service in the design and implementation of this project, and Dr. Nadine Marshall, CSIRO, for generously sharing her research instruments with our team. We also appreciate the time and collaboration of the growers, water managers and other experts who have contributed to this project. Sally Wittlinger prepared the map for this manuscript. The authors appreciate the comments of two anonymous reviewers whose insights improved the manuscript considerably.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 875502, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA

    Hallie Eakin, Rimjhim Aggarwal, Jessica Welch, Cathy Rubiños, Chrissie Bausch & John M. Anderies

  2. School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 872402, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA

    Abigail York, Skaidra Smith-Heisters & John M. Anderies

  3. Sonoran Institute, 11010 N. Tatum Blvd., Suite D1010, Phoenix, AZ, 85028, USA

    Summer Waters

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  1. Hallie Eakin
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  2. Abigail York
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  5. Jessica Welch
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Correspondence to Hallie Eakin.

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Editor: James D. Ford.

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Eakin, H., York, A., Aggarwal, R. et al. Cognitive and institutional influences on farmers’ adaptive capacity: insights into barriers and opportunities for transformative change in central Arizona. Reg Environ Change 16, 801–814 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0789-y

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