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Assessment of the ARW-WRF model over complex terrain: the case of the Stellenbosch Wine of Origin district of South Africa

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Abstract

Global warming has implications for thermal stress for grapevines during ripening, so that wine producers need to adapt their viticultural practices to ensure optimum physiological response to environmental conditions in order to maintain wine quality. The aim of this paper is to assess the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to accurately represent atmospheric processes at high resolution (500 m) during two events during the grapevine ripening period in the Stellenbosch Wine of Origin district of South Africa. Two case studies were selected to identify areas of potentially high daytime heat stress when grapevine photosynthesis and grape composition were expected to be affected. The results of high-resolution atmospheric model simulations were compared to observations obtained from an automatic weather station (AWS) network in the vineyard region. Statistical analysis was performed to assess the ability of the WRF model to reproduce spatial and temporal variations of meteorological parameters at 500-m resolution. The model represented the spatial and temporal variation of meteorological variables very well, with an average model air temperature bias of 0.1 °C, while that for relative humidity was −5.0 % and that for wind speed 0.6 m s−1. Variation in model performance varied between AWS and with time of day, as WRF was not always able to accurately represent effects of nocturnal cooling within the complex terrain. Variations in performance between the two case studies resulted from effects of atmospheric boundary layer processes in complex terrain under the influence of the different synoptic conditions prevailing during the two periods.

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Acknowledgments

This research has benefitted from funding provided by the ANR-JC07 194103 TERVICLIM Programme “Observation et Modélisation spatiale du climat à l’échelle des terroirs viticoles dans un contexte de changement climatique” of CNRS (France), as well as the Ministry for Primary Industries (New Zealand) programme “Development of advanced weather and climate modelling tools to help vineyards adapt to climate change”, Project UOC30915.

The validation work would have been impossible without the collaboration of two South African organizations. The authors are therefore grateful to the Institute for Soil, Climate and Water of the Agricultural Research Council of South Africa for providing the surface meteorological data from its automatic weather station network, previously used within the framework of the WW1312 terroir project of Winetech (Wine Industry Network for Expertise and Technology) led by Stellenbosch University, and to the South African Weather Service for providing synoptic charts and the upper air data for Cape Town International Airport.

The authors are also grateful for continuing logistical support provided by the Department of Geography, University of Canterbury, New Zealand and the LETG-Rennes COSTEL Laboratory, University of Rennes 2, France.

The detailed comments and suggestions provided by an anonymous reviewer were also much appreciated.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. MetService, Wellington, New Zealand

    Iman Soltanzadeh

  2. LETG-Rennes COSTEL (UMR 6554 of CNRS), University of Rennes 2, Rennes, France

    Valérie Bonnardot & Hervé Quénol

  3. Centre for Atmospheric Research, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

    Iman Soltanzadeh, Andrew Sturman & Peyman Zawar-Reza

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  1. Iman Soltanzadeh
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  2. Valérie Bonnardot
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Correspondence to Andrew Sturman.

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Soltanzadeh, I., Bonnardot, V., Sturman, A. et al. Assessment of the ARW-WRF model over complex terrain: the case of the Stellenbosch Wine of Origin district of South Africa. Theor Appl Climatol 129, 1407–1427 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1857-z

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