Abstract
It is well known that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modifies precipitation patterns in several parts of the world. One of the most impacted areas is the western coast of South America, where Ecuador is located. El Niño events that occurred in 1982–1983, 1987–1988, 1991–1992, and 1997–1998 produced important positive rainfall anomalies in the coastal zone of Ecuador, bringing considerable damage to livelihoods, agriculture, and infrastructure. Operational climate forecasts in the region provide only seasonal scale (e.g., 3-month averages) information, but during ENSO events it is key for decision-makers to use reliable sub-seasonal scale forecasts, which at the present time are still non-existent in most parts of the world. This study analyzes the potential predictability of coastal Ecuador rainfall at monthly scale. Instead of the discrete approach that considers training models using only particular seasons, continuous (i.e., all available months are used) transfer function models are built using standard ENSO indices to explore rainfall forecast skill along the Ecuadorian coast and Galápagos Islands. The modeling approach considers a large-scale contribution, represented by the role of a sea-surface temperature index, and a local-scale contribution represented here via the use of previous precipitation observed in the same station. The study found that the Niño3 index is the best ENSO predictor of monthly coastal rainfall, with a lagged response varying from 0 months (simultaneous) for Galápagos up to 3 months for the continental locations considered. Model validation indicates that the skill is similar to the one obtained using principal component regression models for the same kind of experiments. It is suggested that the proposed approach could provide skillful rainfall forecasts at monthly scale for up to a few months in advance.
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Acknowledgments
We are grateful to the Secretaria Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (SENESCYT) of Ecuador, for funding this project (SENESCYT-CGAJ-2013-0297-CO). We also acknowledge the Prometeo Programme of SENESCYT, under which the first author was funded for her stay at Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral (ESPOL) during the period Jan–Sep 2014. We are grateful to Instituto Nacional Oceanográfico de la Armada (INOCAR) for providing the required data to develop this research, and the technical team of Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología (INAMHI), the Latin American Observatory of Climate Events, and Centro de Modelado Científico of Zulia University for detailed discussions on the subject.
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de Guenni, L.B., García, M., Muñoz, Á.G. et al. Predicting monthly precipitation along coastal Ecuador: ENSO and transfer function models. Theor Appl Climatol 129, 1059–1073 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1828-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1828-4