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Spatial and inter-seasonal behaviour of rainfall in the Soutpansberg region of South Africa as attributed to the changing climate

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Abstract

The inter-seasonal behaviour of rainfall in the Soutpansberg region of South Africa was assessed in relation to changing climate with an attempt to diagnose some of the contributing external factors. Seasonal rainfall data from 1970 to 2009 was characterised for the Soutpansberg using 23 rainfall stations distributed over the mountain range. The normality of rainfall data was quality-controlled using the Pearson correlation coefficient and a double mass curve. Composite rainfall and standardised anomaly index for the region were calculated in order to assess seasonal variability of rainfall. The results showed that the range experienced a decline in seasonal rainfall, from east to west. The North West (NW) part of the region experienced its lowest rainfall in 1985, with a standardised anomaly index (SAI) of −0.94, and its highest rainfall was experienced in 1978, with an SAI of 0.5. The North East (NE) recorded lowest rainfall in 1985 with an SAI of −1, and the highest rainfall was observed in the years ranging from 1977 to 1980 with an SAI of 1. The South East (SE) experienced lowest rainfall in 1985 with a value of −1.25 below the mean, and its highest rainfall (1.25) was experienced in 1976. The study showed that seasonal rainfall in the north-facing slope was lower than the rainfall in the south-facing slope. Trend line analysis indicated that the NW part of the Soutpansberg experienced the most substantial decrease in rainfall. The NW region was followed by the NE, SW, SE and the Central East (CE) respectively in terms of the decline in rainfall. Such behaviour and trends which varies across space and time is a cause for concern in the period of study. This period was characterised by increase in anthropogenic activities, as earlier studies prior to 1970 demonstrated a near stable pattern in terms of the cyclic activity of rainfall.

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Acknowledgments

The study was funded by the North West University and the Department of Geography and Environmental Science at Mafikeng Campus is acknowledged particularly for funding for the field trips. Raw weather data was obtained from the South African Weather Service and is greatly appreciated.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Research Commission, Private Bag X03, Gezina, Pretoria, 0031, South Africa

    Brilliant Mareme Petja

  2. Risk and Vulnerability Science Centre, University of Limpopo, Private Bag X1106, Sovenga, 0727, South Africa

    Brilliant Mareme Petja

  3. Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, North West University (Mafikeng Campus), Private Bag X2046, Mmabatho, 2735, South Africa

    Priscilla Ntuchu Kephe & Tibangayuka Abbas Kabanda

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  1. Priscilla Ntuchu Kephe
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  2. Brilliant Mareme Petja
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Correspondence to Brilliant Mareme Petja.

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Kephe, P.N., Petja, B.M. & Kabanda, T.A. Spatial and inter-seasonal behaviour of rainfall in the Soutpansberg region of South Africa as attributed to the changing climate. Theor Appl Climatol 126, 233–245 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1569-9

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