Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Influence of upper ocean on Indian summer monsoon rainfall: studies by observation and NCEP climate forecast system (CFSv2)

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study explores the role played by ocean processes in influencing Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and compares the observed findings with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-coupled model Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The excess and deficit ISMR clearly brings out the distinct signatures in sea surface height (SSH) anomaly, thermocline and mixed layer depth over north Indian Ocean. CFSv2 is successful in simulating SSH anomalies, especially over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal region. CFSv2 captures observed findings of SSH anomalies during flood and drought (e.g., Rossby wave propagation which reaches western Bay of Bengal (BoB) during flood years, Rossby wave propagation which did not reach western BoB during drought). It highlights the ability of CFSv2 to simulate the basic ocean processes which governs the SSH variability. These differences are basically generated by upwelling and downwelling caused by the equatorial and coastal Kelvin and Rossby waves, thereby causing difference in SSH anomaly and thermocline, and subsequently modifying the convection centers, which dictates precipitation over the Indian subcontinent region. Since the observed SSH anomaly and thermal structure show distinct characteristic features with respect to strong and weak ISMR variability, the assimilation of real ocean data in terms of satellite products (like SSHA from AVISO/SARAL) bestow great promise for the future improvement.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adler RF, Huffman GJ, Chang A, Ferraro R, Xie P, Janowiak J, Rudolf B, Schneider U, Curtis S, Bolvin D, Gruber A, Susskind J, Arkin P, Nelkin E (2003) The version 2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979- present). J Hydrometeorol 4:1147–1167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bruce JG, Johnson DR, Kindle JC (1994) Evidence for eddy formation in the eastern Arabian Sea during the northeast monsoon. J Geophys Res 99(C4):7651–7664

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chaudhari HS, Shinde MA, Oh JH (2010) Understanding of anomalous Indian summer monsoon rainfall of 2002 and 1994. Q Int 213:20–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chaudhari HS, Pokhrel S, Saha SK, Dhakate A, Yadav RK, Salunke K, Mahapatra S, Sabeerali CT, Rao SA (2013a) Model biases in long coupled runs of NCEP CFS in the context of Indian summer monsoon. Int J Climatol 33:1057–1069

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chaudhari HS, Pokhrel S, Mohanty S, Saha SK (2013b) Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon in NCEP coupled and uncoupled model. Theor Appl Climatol 114:459–477

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark CO, Cole JE, Webster PJ (2000) Indian ocean SST and Indian summer rainfall: predictive relationships and their decadal variability. J Clim 13:2503–2519

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clough SA, Shephard MW, Mlawer EJ, Delamere IMJ, Cady-Pereira K, Boukabara S, Brown PD (2005) Atmospheric radiative transfer modeling: a summary of the AER codes. J Quant Spectrosc Radiat Transf 91:233–244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cutler AN, Swallow JC (1984) Surface currents of the Indian Ocean (to 25N, 100E): compiled from historic data archived by the Meteorological Office. Institute of Ocean Science, Bracknell, p 8, Report No. 187

    Google Scholar 

  • De S, Hazra A, Chaudhari HS (2014) Does the modification in “critical relative humidity” of NCEP CFSv2 dictate Indian mean summer monsoon forecast?: evaluation through thermodynamical and dynamical aspects. Clim Dyn (accepted)

  • Ek MB, Mitchell KE, Lin Y, Rogers E, Grunmann P, Koren V, Gayno G, Tarplay JD (2003) Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the national centers for environmental prediction operational mesoscale Eta model. J Geophys Res 1089(D22):8851. doi:10.1029/2002JD003296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu LL (2001) Ocean circulation and variability from satellite altimetry. In: Siedler G., Church J, Gould J (eds.) Ocean Circulation and Climate, Observing and Modelling the Global Ocean, International Geophysics Series Number, vol. 77, pp. 141–172

  • Gadgil S, Vinaychandran PN, Francis PA (2004) Extremes of Indian summer monsoon rainfall ENSO equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation. Geophyl Res Lett 31, L12213. doi:10.1029/2004GL019733

    Google Scholar 

  • Gera A, Mitra AK, Mahapatra DK, Ali I, Rajagopal EN, Basu S (2013) Sea surface height and upper ocean heat content variability in Bay of Bengal during contrasting Monsoons 2009 and 2010. NCMRWF research report, NMRF/RR/OCN-1/2013, pp. 1-27

  • Girishkumar MS, Ravichandran M, McPhaden MJ, Rao RR (2011) Intraseasonal variability in barrier layer thickness in the south central Bay of Bengal 116:C03009. doi:10.1029/2010JC006657.

  • Gopalakrishna VV, Sadhuram Y, Ramesh Babu V (1988) Variability of mixed layer depth in the northern Indian Ocean during 1977 and 1979 summer monsoon seasons. Indian J Mar Sci 17:258–264

    Google Scholar 

  • Griffies SM, Harrison MJ, Pacanowski RC, Rosati A (2004) A Technical guide to MOM4. GFDL Ocean Group Tech Rep 5:1–337

    Google Scholar 

  • Han W, Webster PJ (2002) Forcing mechanisms of sea level interannual variability in the Bay of Bengal. J Phys Oceanogr 32:216–239

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iacono MJ, Mlawer EJ, Clough SA, Morcrette JJ (2000) Impact of an improved longwave radiation model, RRTM, on the energy budget and thermodynamic properties of the NCAR Community Climate Model, CCM3. J Geophys Res 105:14873–14890

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iskandar I, Masumoto Y, Mizuno K (2009) Subsurface equatorial zonal current in the eastern Indian Ocean. J Geophys Res 114:C06005. doi:10.1029/2008JC005118

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keerthi MG, Lengaigne M, Vialard J, de Boyer Monte’gut C, Muraleedharan PM (2013) Interannual variability of the tropical Indian ocean mixed layer depth. Clim Dyn 40:743–759

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kripalani RH, Oh JH, Kulkarni A, Sabade SS, Chaudhari HS (2007) South Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability: coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4. Theor Appl Climatol 90:133–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kripalani RH, Kulkarni A, Sabade SS, Khandekar ML (2003) Indian monsoon variability in a global warming scenario. Nat Hazards 29:189–206

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurthy V, Ajayamohan RS (2010) Composite structure of monsoon low pressure systems and its relation to Indian rainfall. J Clim 23:4285–4305. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI2953.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luther ME, O’Brien JJ (1985) A model of the seasonal circulation in the Arabian Sea forced by observed winds. Prog Oceanogr 14:353–385

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCreary JP, Kundu PK (1989) A numerical investigation of sea surface temperature variability in the Arabian Sea. J Geophys Res 94:16097–16114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCreary JP, Kundu PK, Molinari RL (1993) A numerical investigation of dynamics, thermodynamics and the mixed layer processes in the Indian Ocean. Prog Oceanogr 31:181–244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murtugudde R, McCreary JP, Busalacchi AJ (2000) Oceanic processes associated with anomalous events in the Indian Ocean with relevance to 1997–1998. J Geophys Res 105:3295–3306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Periguad C, Delecluse P (1992) Annual sea level variations in the southern tropical Indian Ocean from Geosat and shallow-water simulations. J Geophys Res 97(C12):20169–20178

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pokhrel S, Rahaman H, Parekh A, Saha SK, Dhakate A, Chaudhari HS, Gairola RM (2012) Evaporation-precipitation variability over Indian Ocean and its assessment in NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2). Clim Dyn 39:2585–2608

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Polito PS, Cornillon P (1997) Long baroclinic Rossby waves detected by Topex/Poseidon. J Geophys Res 102:3215–3235

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prasad TG (2004) A comparison of mixed-layer dynamics between the Arabian sea and bay of Bengal: one-dimensional model results. J Geophys Res 109:C03035. doi:10.1029/2003JC002000

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rao RR, Sivakumar R (2003) Seasonal variability of sea surface salinity and salt budget of the mixed layer of the north Indian Ocean. J Geophys Res 108:3009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rao SA, Chaudhari HS, Pokhrel S, Goswami BN (2010a) Unusual central Indian drought of summer monsoon - 2008: role of southern tropical Indian ocean warming. J Clim 23:5163–5174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rao RR, Girish Kumar MS, Ravichandran M, Rao AR, Gopalakrishna VV, Thadathil P (2010b) Interannual variability of Kelvin wave propagation in the wave guides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, the coastal Bay of Bengal and the southeastern Arabian Sea during 1993–2006. Deep-Sea Res I 57:1–13

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rao RR, Molinari RL, Festa JF (1989) Evolution of the climatological near-surface thermal structure of the tropical Indian Ocean. J Geophys Res 94:1081–10815

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reverdin G (1987) The upper equatorial Indian ocean: the multi-year averaged seasonal cycle. J Phys Oceanogr 17:903–927

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609–1625

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roxy M (2013) Sensitivity of precipitation to sea surface temperature over the tropical summer monsoon region—and its quantification. Clim Dyn 43:1159–1169

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saha S, Moorthi S, Pan HL, Wu X, Wang J, Nadiga S, Tripp P, Kistler R, Woollen J, Behringer D, Liu H, Stokes D, Grumbine R, Gayno G, Wang J, Hou YT, Chuang HY, Juang H-MH, Sela J, Iredell M, Treadon R, Kleist D, Delst PV, Keyser D, Derber J, Ek M, Meng J, Wei H, Yang R, Lord S, Dool HVD, Kumar A, Wang W, Long C, Chelliah M, Xue Y, Huang B, Schemm JK, Ebisuzaki W, Lin R, Xie P, Chen M, Zhou S, Higgins W, Zou CZ, Liu Q, Chen Y, Han Y, Cucurull L, Reynolds RW, Rutledge G, Goldberg M (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:1015–1057

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saha SK, Pokhrel S, Chaudhari HS (2013) Influence of Eurasian snow on Indian summer monsoon in NCEP CFSv2 freerun. Clim Dyn 41:1801–1815

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saha S, Moorthi S, Wu X, Wang J, Nadiga S, Tripp P, Behringer D, Hou YT, Chuang HY, Iredell M, Ek M, Meng J, Yang R, van den Mendez, Zhang H, Wang W, Chen M, Becker E (2014a) The NCEP climate forecast system version 2. J Clim 27:2185–2208

  • Saha SK, Pokhrel S, Chaudhari HS, Dhakate A, Shewale S, SabeerAli CT, Salunke K, Hazra A, Mahapatra S, Rao AS (2014b) Improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon in latest NCEP climate forecast system (CFSv2) free run. Intl J Climatol 34:1628–1641

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sahai AK, Sharmila S, Abhilash S, Chattopadhyay R, Borah N, Krishna RPM, Joseph S, Roxy M, De S, Pattnaik S, Pillai PA (2013) Simulation and extended range prediction of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in NCEP CFS/GFS version 2 framework. Curr Sci 104:1394–1408

    Google Scholar 

  • Schott FA, McCreary JP (2001) The monsoon circulation of the Indian Ocean. Prog Oceanogr 51:1–123

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schott FA, Xie SP, McCreary JP (2009) Indian Ocean circulation and climate variability. Rev Geophys 47:RG1002. doi:10.1029/2007RG000245

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shankar D, Vinayachandran PN, Unnikrishnan AS (2002) The monsoon currents in the north Indian Ocean. Prog Oceanogr 52:63–120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shenoi SSC, Shankar D, Shetye SR (2002) Differences in heat budgets of the near-surface Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal: implications for the summer monsoon. J Geophys Res 107(C6):3052. doi:10.1029/2000JC000679

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shenoi SSC, Saji PK, Almeida AM (1999) Near-surface circulation and kinetic energy in the tropical Indian Ocean derived from Lagrangian drifters. J Mar Res 57:885–907

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shukla J (1975) Effect of Arabian Sea Surface temperature anomaly on Indian summer monsoon: a numerical experiment with the GFDL model. J Atmos Sci 32:503–511

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sreenivas P, Patnaik KVKRK, Prasad KVSR (2008) Monthly variability of mixed layer over Arabian Sea using ARGO data. Mar Geod 31:17–38

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Subrahmanyam B, Robinson IS (2000) Sea surface height variability in the Indian Ocean from TOPEX /POSEIDON altimetry and model simulations. Mar Geod 23:167–195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Clark C, Cherikova G, Fasullo J, Han W, Loschnigg J, Sahami K (2002) The Monsoon as a self-regulating coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Meteorology at the Millennium. Int Geophys Ser 83:198–219, Academic press

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Magana VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J, Tomas RA, Yanai M, Yasunari T (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res 10:14451–14510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Winton M (2000) A reformulated three-layer sea ice model. J Atmos Ocean Technol 17:525–531

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu X, Simmonds I, Budd WF (1997) Modeling of Antarctic sea ice in a general circulation model. J Clim 10:593–609

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wyrtki K (1971) Oceanographic Atlas of the International Indian Ocean Expedition. National Science Foundation, Washington, DC, p 531

    Google Scholar 

  • Xie SP, Xu H, Saji NH, Wang Y (2006) Role of narrow mountains in large-scale organization of Asian monsoon convection. J Clim 19:3420–3429

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yamagata T, Mizuno K, Masumoto Y (1996) Seasonal variations in the equatorial Indian Ocean with their impacts on the Lombok Throughflow. J Geophys Res 101:12465–12473

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to Dr. M. Rajeevan, Director of IITM and Dr. Suryachandra Rao, Chief Program Scientist, IITM for providing encouragement to carry out this research work. This research is funded by SAC sponsored project SARAL-AltiKa (ocean-atmosphere coupled processes in Tropical Indian Ocean).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Chaudhari, H.S., Pokhrel, S., Rahman, H. et al. Influence of upper ocean on Indian summer monsoon rainfall: studies by observation and NCEP climate forecast system (CFSv2). Theor Appl Climatol 125, 413–426 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1521-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1521-z

Keywords

Navigation