Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Water use efficiency and crop water balance of rainfed wheat in a semi-arid environment: sensitivity of future changes to projected climate changes and soil type

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Wheat production is expected to be affected by climate change through changing components of the crop water balance such as rainfall, evapotranspiration (ET), runoff and drainage. We used the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-wheat model to simulate the potential impact of climate change on field water balance, ET and water use efficiency (WUE) under the SRES A2 emissions scenario. We ran APSIM with daily climate data statistically downscaled from 18 Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Twelve soil types of varying plant available water holding capacity (PAWC) at six sites across semi-arid southeastern Australia were considered. Biases in the GCM-simulated climate data were bias-corrected against observations for the 1961–1999 baseline period. However, biases in the APSIM output data relative to APSIM simulations forced with climate observations remained. A secondary bias correction was therefore performed on the APSIM outputs. Bias-corrected APSIM outputs for a future period (2021–2040) were compared with APSIM outputs generated using observations for the baseline period to obtain future changes. The results show that effective rainfall was decreased over all sites due to decreased growing season rainfall. ET was decreased through reduced soil evaporation and crop transpiration. There were no significant changes in runoff at any site. The variation in deep drainage between sites was much greater than for runoff, ranging from less than a few millimetres at the drier sites to over 100 mm at the wetter. However, in general, the averaged drainage over different soil types were not significantly different between the baseline (1961–1999) and future period of 2021–2040 (P > 0.05). For the wetter sites, the variations in the future changes in drainage and runoff between the 18 GCMs were larger than those of the drier sites. At the dry sites, the variation in drainage decreased as PAWC increased. Overall, water use efficiency based on transpiration (WUE_T) and ET (WUE_ET) increased by 1.1 to 1.6 and 0.7 to 1.3 kg ha−1 mm−1, respectively, over the baseline historical climate. Significant relationships between changes in wheat yield and PAWC were only seen at three sites. At the dry sites, the impact of a future climate under a soil of high PAWC was less than that under one of low PAWC. Conversely, the opposite response was seen at two wetter sites, highlighting the importance of PAWC and rainfall in determining the interactive response of crops to primary components of the water balance.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ainsworth EA, Long SP (2005) What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy. New Phytol 165:351–372

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ainsworth EA, Beier C, Calfapietra C, Ceulemans R, Tardifs MD, Farquhar GD, Godbold DL, Hendrey GR, Hickler T, Kaduk J, Karnosky D, Kimball BA, Korner C, Koornneef M, Lafarge T, Leakey ADB, Lewin KF, Long SP, Manderscheid R, McNeil DL, Mies TA, Miglietta F, Morgan JA, Nagy J, Norby RJ, Norton RN, Percy KE, Rogers A, Soussana J-F, Stitt M, Weigel HJ, White J (2008) Next generation of elevated [CO2] experiments with crops: a critical investment for feeding the future world. Plant Cell and Environ 31:1317–1324

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen LH, Pan D, Boote KJ, Pickering NB, Jones JW (2003) Carbon dioxide and temperature effects on evapotranspiration and water use efficiency of soybean. Agron J 95:1071–1081

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anwar MR, O’Leary G, Rab A, Fisher P, Armstrong R (2009) Advances in precision agriculture in south-eastern Australia. V. Effect of seasonal conditions on wheat and barley yield response to applied nitrogen across management zones. Crop Pasture Sci 60:901–911

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Asseng S, Fillery IRP, Anderson GC, Dolling PJ, Dunin FX, Keating BA (1998) Use of the APSIM wheat model to predict yield, drainage, and NO3− leaching for a deep sand. Aust J Agr Res 49:363–377. doi:10.1071/A97095

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen W, Shen YY, Robertson MJ, Probert ME, Bellotti WD (2008) Simulation analysis of lucerne–wheat crop rotation on the Loess Plateau of Northern China. Field Crop Res 108:179–187

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Covey C, AchutaRao KM, Cubasch U, Jones P, Lambert SJ, Mann ME, Phillips TJ, Taylor KE (2003) An overview of results from the coupled model intercomparison project. Global Planet Change 37:103–133

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CSIRO and BOM (2007) Climate change in Australia. Technical Report. CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology

  • de Boer HJ, Lammertsma EI, Wagner-Cremer F, Dilcher DL, Wassen MJ, Dekker SC (2011) Climate forcing due to optimization of maximal leaf conductance in subtropical vegetation under rising CO2. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 108:4041–40466

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eitzinger J, Štastná M, Žalud Z, Dubrovský M (2003) A simulation study of the effect of soil water balance and water stress on winter wheat production under different climate change scenarios. Agr Water Manage 61:195–217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • French RJ, Schultz JE (1984a) Water use efficiency of wheat in a Mediterranean-type environment. I. the relationship between yield, water use and climate. Aust J Agr Res 35:743–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • French RJ, Schultz JE (1984b) Water use efficiency of wheat in a Mediterranean-type environment. II. Some limitations to efficiency. Aust J Agr Res 35:765–75

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gagen M, Finsinger W, Wagner-Cremer F, Mccarroll D, Loader NJ, Robertson I, Jalkanen R, Young G, Kirchhefer A (2011) Evidence of changing intrinsic water-use efficiency under rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations in Boreal Fennoscandia from subfossil leaves and tree ring δ13C ratios. Global Change Biol 17:1064–1072

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garnaut R (2011) The science of climate change. Garnaut Climate Change Review—Update 2011, Canberra. Available at http://www.garnautreview.org.au/update-2011/update-papers/up5- the-science-of-climate-change.pdf

  • Haerter JO, Hagemann S, Moseley C, Piani C (2011) Climate model bias correction and the role of timescales, Hydrol. Earth Syst Sci 15:1065–1079. doi:10.5194/hess-15-1065-2011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hochman Z, Gobbett D, Holzworth D, McClelland T, van Rees H, Marinoni O, Garcia JN, Horan H (2012) Quantifying yield gaps in rainfed cropping systems: a case study of wheat in Australia. Field Crop Res 136:58–96

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Howden SM, Reyenga PJ, Meinke H (1999) Global change impacts on Australian wheat cropping: studies on hydrology, fertilizer management and mixed crop rotations. Working Paper Series 99/13, Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra, p 24

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 879

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Jeffrey SJ, Carter JO, Moodie KB, Beswick AR (2001) Using spatial interpolation to construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data. Environ Model Softw 16:309–330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Katerji N, Mastrorilli M, Rana G (2008) Water use efficiency of crops cultivated in the Mediterranean region: review and analysis. Eur J Agron 28:493–507

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keating BA, Gaydon D, Huth N, Probert ME, Verburg K, Smith CJ, Bond W (2002) Use of modelling to explore the water balance of dryland farming systems in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. Eur J Agron 18:159–169

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keating BA, Carberry PS, Hammer GL, Probert ME, Robertson MJ, Holzworth D, Huth NI, Hargreaves JNG, Meinke H, Hochman Z, McLean G, Verburg K, Snow V, Dimes JP, Silburn M, Wang E, Brown S, Bristow KL, Asseng S, Chapman S, McCown RL, Freebairn DM, Smith CJ (2003) An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation. Eur J Agron 18:267–288

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kimball BA (2011) Chapter 5 Lessons from FACE: CO2 effects and interactions with water, nitrogen and temperature. In: Daniel H, Cynthia R (eds) ICP series on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation Vol. 1 handbook of climate change and agroecosystems impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Imperial College Press, London, pp 87–107

    Google Scholar 

  • Lammertsma EI, de Boer HJ, Dekker SC, Dilcher DL, Lotter AF, Wagner-Cremer F (2011) Global CO2 rise leads to reduced maximum stomatal conductance in Florida vegetation. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 108:4035–4040

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Latta J, O'Leary GJ (2003) Long-term comparison of rotation and fallow tillage systems of wheat in Australia. Field Crop Res 82:173–190

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lawes RA, Oliver YM, Robertson MJ (2009) Integrating the effects of climate and plant available soil water holding capacity on wheat yield. Field Crop Res 113:297–305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leakey ABD, Ainsworth EA, Bernacchi CJ, Rogers A, Long SP, Ort DR (2009) Elevated CO2 effects on plant carbon, nitrogen, and water relations: six important lessons from FACE. J Exp Bot 60:2859–2876

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu DL, Zuo H (2012) Statistical downscaling of daily climate variables for climate change impact assessment over New South Wales, Australia. Clim Chang 115:629–666

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu DL, Anwar MR, O’Leary G, Conyers MK (2014) Managing wheat stubble as an effective approach to sequester soil carbon in semi-arid environment: Spatial modelling. Geoderm 214-215:50–61. doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2013.10.003

  • Ludwig F, Asseng F (2006) Climate change impacts on wheat production in a Mediterranean environment in Western Australia. Agr Syst 90:159–179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCown RL, Hammer GL, Hargreaves JNG, Holzworth DL, Freebairn DM (1996) APSIM: a novel software system for model development, model testing, and simulation in agricultural system research. Agr Syst 50:255–271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:1383–1394

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mo X, Liu S, Lin Z, Guo R (2009) Regional crop yield, water consumption and water use efficiency and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain. Agr Ecosyst Environ 134:67–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mullins JA (1981) Estimation of the plant available water capacity of a soil profile. Aust J Soil Res 19:197–207

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries HJM, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grubler A, Jung TY, Kram T, La Rovere EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Papper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Riahi K, Roehrl A, Rogner HH, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, van Rooijen S, Victor N, Dadi Z (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios. Intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Notaro M, Vavrus S, Liu Z (2007) Global vegetation and climate change due to future increases in CO2 as projected by a fully coupled model with dynamic vegetation. J Clim 20:70–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Leary GJ, Walker S, Joshi NL, White J (2011) Chapter 4. Water availability and use in rainfed farming systems: their relationship to system structure, operation and management. In: Tow P, Cooper I, Partridge I, Birch C (eds) Rainfed farming systems. Part 1. Principles and their application. Springer Science & Business Media B.V, London, pp 101–132

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Passioura J (2006) Increasing crop productivity when water is scarce—from breeding to field management. Agr Water Manage 80:176–196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peng J, Dong W, Yuan W, Chou J, Zhang Y, Li J (2013) Effects of increased CO2 on land water balance from 1850 to 1989. Theor Appl Climatol 111:483–495

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Priestley CHB, Taylor RJ (1972) On the assessment of surface heat flux and evaporation using large-scale parameters. Mon Weather Rev 100:81–92

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Probert ME, Dimes JP, Keating BA, Dalal RC, Strong WM (1998) APSIM’s water and nitrogen modules and simulation of the dynamics of water and nitrogen in fallow systems. Agr Syst 56:1–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prudhomme C, Davies H (2009) Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on the river flow regimes in the UK. Part 1: baseline climate. Clim Chang 93:177–195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raisanen J (2007) How reliable are climate models? Tellus A 59:2–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Randall DA, Wood RA, Bony S, Colman R, Fichefet T, Fyfe J, Kattsov V, Pitman A, Shukla J, Srinivasan J, Stouffer RJ, Sumi A, Taylor KE (2007) Climate models and their evaluation. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007, the physical science basis, contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 589–662

    Google Scholar 

  • Richardson CW, Wright DA (1984) WGEN: a model for generating daily weather variables. U. S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, ARS-8, pp. 83

  • Richter GM, Semenov MA (2005) Modelling impacts of climate change on wheat yields in England and Wales: assessing drought risks. Agric Syst 84:77–97. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2004.06.011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sadras V, Roget D, O’Leary G (2002) On-farm assessment of environmental and management constraints to wheat yield and efficiency in the use of rainfall in the Mallee. Aust J Agr Res 53:587–598

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Salathe EP Jr, Mote PW, Wiley MW (2007) Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States pacific northwest. Int J Climatol 27:1611–1621

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sinclair TR (2011) Precipitation: the thousand-pound gorilla in crop response to climate change. In: Hillel D, Rosenzweig C (Eds.), Handbook of climate change and agroecosytems: impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Imperial College Press, pp. 179–190

  • Somerville C, Briscoe J (2001) Genetic engineering and water. Science 292:2217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soussana JF, Graux AI, Tubiello FN (2010) Improving the use of modelling for projections of climate change impacts on crops and pastures. J Exp Bot 61:2217–2228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tilman D, Cassman KG, Matson PA, Naylor R, Polasky S (2002) Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Nature 418:671–677

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Timbal B, Jones D (2008) Future projections of winter rainfall in southeast Australia using a statistical downscaling technique. Clim Chang 86:165–187

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trnka M, Dubrovsky M, Semeradova D, Zalud Z (2004) Projections of uncertainties in climate change scenarios into expected winter wheat yields. Theor Appl Climatol 77:229–249

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turner NC (2004) Agronomic options for improving rainfall-use efficiency of crops in dryland farming systems. J Exp Bot 55:2413–2425

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Utset A, Del Río B (2011) Reliability of current Spanish irrigation designs in a changed climate a case study. J Agr Sci 149:171–183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Ittersum MK, Howden SM, Asseng S (2003) Sensitivity of productivity and deep drainage of wheat cropping systems in a Mediterranean environment to changes in CO2, temperature and precipitation. Agr Ecosyst Environ 97:255–273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang E, Cresswell H, Xu J, Jiang Q (2009a) Capacity of soils to buffer impact of climate variability and value of seasonal forecasts. Agr Forest Meteorol 149:38–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang J, Wang E, Luo Q, Kirby M (2009b) Modelling the sensitivity of wheat growth and water balance to climate change in Southeast Australia. Clim Chang 96:79–96

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang J, Wang E, Liu DL (2011) Modelling the impact of climate change on wheat yield and field water balance over the Murry-Darling Basin in Australia. Theor Appl Climatol 104:285–300

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wessolek G, Asseng S (2006) Trade-off between wheat yield and drainage under current and climate change conditions in northeast Germany. Eur J Agron 24:333–342

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang X, Chen C, Luo Q, Li L, Yu Q (2011) Climate change effects on wheat yield and water use in oasis cropland. Int J Plant Prod 5:83–94

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang YM, Liu DL, Anwar MR, Zuo H, Yang YH (2014) Impact of future climate change on wheat production in relation to soil water holding capacity in a semi-arid environment. Theor Appl Climatol 115:391–410

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang L, Walker GR, Dawes WR (2002) Water balance modelling concepts and applications. In: McVicar TR, Rui L, Walker J, Fitzpatrick RW, Changming L (Eds) “Regional Water and Soil Assessment for Managing Sustainable Agriculture in China and Australia”. ACIAR Monograph No. 84, pp. 31–47

Download references

Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the modelling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, US Department of Energy. This research was partly funded by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (grant CE110001028).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology CAS, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, 050020, China

    Yanmin Yang & Yonghui Yang

  2. NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, PMB, Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2650, Australia

    Yanmin Yang, De Li Liu & Muhuddin Rajin Anwar

  3. Graham Centre for Agricultural Innovation (An alliance between NSW Department of Primary Industries and Charles Sturt University), Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2650, Australia

    Yanmin Yang, De Li Liu & Muhuddin Rajin Anwar

  4. Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Horsham, VIC, 3400, Australia

    Garry O’Leary

  5. Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia

    Ian Macadam

Authors
  1. Yanmin Yang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. De Li Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Muhuddin Rajin Anwar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Garry O’Leary
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Ian Macadam
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Yonghui Yang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to De Li Liu.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Yang, Y., Liu, D.L., Anwar, M.R. et al. Water use efficiency and crop water balance of rainfed wheat in a semi-arid environment: sensitivity of future changes to projected climate changes and soil type. Theor Appl Climatol 123, 565–579 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1376-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1376-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation