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Quantifying the impact of climate change on drought regimes using the Standardised Precipitation Index

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Abstract

The study presents a methodology to characterise short- or long-term drought events, designed to aid understanding of how climate change may affect future risk. An indicator of drought magnitude, combining parameters of duration, spatial extent and intensity, is presented based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI is applied to observed (1955–2003) and projected (2003–2050) precipitation data from the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS). Potential consequences of climate change on drought regimes in Australia, Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Spain, Portugal and the USA are quantified. Uncertainty is assessed by emulating a range of global circulation models to project climate change. Further uncertainty is addressed through the use of a high-emission scenario and a low-stabilisation scenario representing a stringent mitigation policy. Climate change was shown to have a larger effect on the duration and magnitude of long-term droughts, and Australia, Brazil, Spain, Portugal and the USA were highlighted as being particularly vulnerable to multi-year drought events, with the potential for drought magnitude to exceed historical experience. The study highlights the characteristics of drought which may be more sensitive under climate change. For example, on average, short-term droughts in the USA do not become more intense but are projected to increase in duration. Importantly, the stringent mitigation scenario had limited effect on drought regimes in the first half of the twenty-first century, showing that adaptation to drought risk will be vital in these regions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR), Department Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 9EP, UK

    Katie Jenkins

  2. Tyndall Centre, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    Rachel Warren

  3. Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK

    Katie Jenkins

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  1. Katie Jenkins
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Correspondence to Katie Jenkins.

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Jenkins, K., Warren, R. Quantifying the impact of climate change on drought regimes using the Standardised Precipitation Index. Theor Appl Climatol 120, 41–54 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1143-x

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