Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Interannual variability of rainfall over the Sahel based on multiple regional climate models simulations

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

We analyse the interannual variability of the averaged summer monsoon rainfall over the Sahel from multiple regional climate models driven by the ERA-interim reanalysis and seek to provide effective information for future modelling work. We find that the majority of the models are able to reproduce the rainfall variability with correlation coefficient exceeding 0.5 compared with observations. This is due to a good representation of the dynamics of the main monsoon features of the West African climate such as the monsoon flux, African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ). Among the models, only HIRHAM fails to reproduce the rainfall variability exhibiting hence a correlation coefficient of −0.2. This deficiency originates from the fact that HIRHAM does not properly capture the variability of monsoon flow and the relationship between rainfall and the AEJ dynamic. We conclude that a good performance of a regional climate model in simulating the monsoon dynamical features variability is of primary importance for a better representation of the interannual variability of rainfall over the Sahel.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abiodun BJ, Pal JS, Afiesimama EA, Gutowski WJ, Adedoyin A (2008) Simulation of West African monsoon using RegCM3 Part II: impacts of deforestation and desertification. Theor Appl Climatol 93:245–261. doi:10.1007/s00704-007-0333-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adler RF et al (2003) The version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present). J Hydrometeorol 4:1147–1167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Afiesimama EA, Pal JS, Abiodun BJ, Gutowski WJ, Adedoyin A (2006) Simulation of West African monsoon using the RegCM3. Part I: model validation and interannual variability. Theor Appl Climatol 86:23–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Biasutti M, Giannini A (2006) Robust Sahel drying in response to late 20th century forcing. Geophys Res Lett. 33: No. L11706. doi:10.1029/2006GL026067

  • Christensen OB, Drews M, Christensen JH, Dethloff K, Ketelsen K, Hebestadt I, Rinke A (2006) The HIRHAM Regional Climate Model. Version 5, DMI technical report 06-17. Available at http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/tr06-17.pdf

  • Cook KH, Vizy EK (2006) Coupled model simulations of the West African monsoon system: twentieth– and twenty–first–century simulations. J Clim. doi:10.1175/JCLI3814.1

  • Dai A, Lamb PJ, Trenberth KE, Hulme M, Jones PD, Xie P (2004) The recent Sahel drought is real. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.1083

  • Diallo I, Camara M, Sylla MB, Gaye AT (2010) Représentation haute résolution du système de mousson Ouest Africain avec un modèle climatique régional. Journal des Sciences Pour l’Ingénieur No. 12: 75–85. Available at http://www.ajol.info/index.php/jspi/article/viewFile/67978/56073

  • Diallo I, Sylla MB, Giorgi F, Gaye AT, Camara M (2012) Multimodel GCM-RCM ensemble based projections of temperature and precipitation over West Africa for the early 21st century. Int J. Geophys 2012, Article ID 972896. doi:10.1155/2012/972896

  • Dickinson, RE., Henderson-Sellers A, Kennedy PJ (1993) Biosphere–Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) version 1E as coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model. NCAR Technical Report TN-387+STR. 72 pp

  • Djiotang Tchoutchou LA, Mkankam Kamga F (2009) Sensitivity of the simulated African monsoon of summers 1993 and 1999 to convective parameterization schemes in RegCM3. Theor Appl Climatol 100:207–220. doi:10.1007/s00704-009-0181-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dominguez M, Gaertner MA, de Rosnay P, Losada T (2010) A regional climate model simulation over West Africa: parameterization tests and analysis of land-surface fields. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0769-3

  • Druyan LM, Feng J, Cook KH, Xue Y, Fulakeza M, Hagos SM, Konare A, Moufouma-Okia W, Rowell DP, Vizy EK, Ibrah SS (2009) The WAMME regional model intercomparison study. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0676-7

  • Dümenil L, Todini E (1992) A rainfall–runoff scheme for use in the Hamburg climate model. In: O’Kane JP (ed) Advances in theoretical hydrology, a tribute to James Dooge, European Geophysical Society Series on Hydrological Sciences, vol 1. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 129–157

    Google Scholar 

  • Edwards JM, Slingo A (1996) Studies with a flexible new radiation code. I: choosing a configuration for a large-scale model. Q J R Meteorol Soc 122:689–719

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Essery RLH, Best MJ, Betts RA, Cox PM (2003) Explicit representation of subgrid heterogeneity in a GCM land surface scheme. J Hydrometeor 4:530–543

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flaounas E, Bastin S, Janicot S (2010) Regional climate modelling of the 2006 West African monsoon: sensitivity to convection and planetary boundary layer parameterisation using WRF. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0785-3

  • Fontaine B, Trasaska S, Janicot S (1998) Evolution of the relationship between near global and Atlantic SST mode and the rainy season in West Africa: statistical analyses and sensitivity experiments. Clim Dyn 14:353–368

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fouquart Y, Bonnel B (1980) Computations of solar heating of the earth’s atmosphere: a new parameterization. Beitr Phys Atmos 53:35–62

    Google Scholar 

  • Fritsch JM, Chappell CF (1980) Numerical prediction of convectively driven mesoscale pressure systems. Part I: convective parameterization. J Atmos Sci 37:1722–1733

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gallee H, Moufouma-Okia W, Bechtold P, Brasseur O, Dupays I, Marbaix P, Messager C, Ramel R, Lebel T (2004) A high resolution simulation of a West African rainy season using a regional climate model. J Geophys Res. doi:10.1029/2003JD004020

  • Giannini A, Saravanan R, Chang P (2003) Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science 302:1027–1030. doi:10.1126/science.1089357

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgetta M, Wild M (1995) The water vapor continuum and its representation in ECHAM4, Report 162. Max-Planck-Inst. für Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany. 38 pp

  • Giorgi F, Mearns LO (1999) Introduction to special section: regional climate modeling revisited. J Geophys Res 104:6335–6352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar G (2009) Addressing climate information need at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. WMO Bull 58(3):175–183

    Google Scholar 

  • Gregory D, Allen S (1991) The effect of convective downdraughts upon NWP and climate simulations. In: Proceedings of the ninth conference on numerical weather prediction, Denver, pp 122–123

  • Gregory D, Rowntree PR (1990) A mass-flux convection scheme with representation of cloud ensemble characteristics and stability dependent closure. J Geophys Res 92(14):198–203

    Google Scholar 

  • Grell GA (1993) Prognostic evaluation of assumptions used by cumulus parameterizations. Mon Weather Rev 121:764–787

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grist JP, Nicholson SA (2001) A study of the dynamic factors influencing the rainfall variability in the West African Sahel. J Clim 14:1337–1359

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hagemann S (2002) An improved land surface parameter dataset for global and regional climate models. MPI Report 336, pp 21

  • Hagos S, Cook KH (2008) Ocean warming and late twentieth-century Sahel drought and recovery. J Clim 21(15):3797–3814

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Held IM, Delworth TL, Lu J, Findell KL, Knutson TR (2005) Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries. PNAS 102(50):17891–17896

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoerling M, Hurrell J, Eischeid J, Phillips A (2006) Detection and attribution of twentieth–century northern and southern African rainfall change. J Clim 19:3989–4008. doi:10.1175/JCLI3842.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holtslag AAM, De Bruin EIF, Pan HL (1990) A high resolution air mass transformation model for short-range weather forecasting. Mon Weather Rev 118:1561–1575

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hourdin F, Mustat I, Guichard F, Ruti PM, Favot F, Pham MMA, Grandpeix JY, Polcher J, Marquet P, Boone A, Lafore JP, Redelsperger JL, Dell’Aquilla A, Losada Doval T, Traore AK, Gallee H (2010) AMMA-Model intercomparison project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc. doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2791.1

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 996 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Jacob D, Andrae U, Elgered G, Fortelius C, Graham LP, Jackson SD, Karstens U, Koepken C, Lindau R, Podzun R, Rockel B, Rubel F, Sass HB, Smith RND, Van den Hurk BJJM, Yang X (2001) A Comprehensive Model Intercomparison Study Investigating the Water Budget during the BALTEX-PIDCAP Period. Met Atm Phys 77(1–4):19–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jenkins GS, Gaye AT, Sylla B (2005) Late 20th century attribution of drying trends in the Sahel from the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3). Geophys Res Lett 32(L22705):2005. doi:10.1029/2005GL024225

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones R, Noguer M, Hassel D, Hudson D, Wilson S, Jenkins G, Mitchell J (2004) Generating high resolution regional climate change using PRECIS. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, 40 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiehl JT, Hack JJ, Bonan GB, Boville BA, Briegleb BP, Williamson DL, Rasch PJ (1996) Description of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3). NCAR Technical Note 4201STR. 152 pp

  • Lenderink G, van den Hurk B, van Meijgaard E, van Ulden A, Cuijpers J (2003) Simulation of present-day climate in RACMO2: first results and model developments. KNMI Technical Report (252). 24 pp

  • L’Hôte Y, Mahé G, Somé B, Triboulet JP (2002) Analysis of a Sahelian index from 1896 to 2000; the drought continues. Hydrol Sci J 47(4):563–572

    Google Scholar 

  • Lohmann U, Roeckner E (1996) Design and performance of a new cloud microphysics scheme developed for the ECHAM general circulation model. Clim Dyn 12:557–572

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Louis JF (1979) A parametric model of vertical eddy fluxes in the atmosphere. Bound Layer Meteorol 17:187–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mariotti L, Coppolla E, Sylla MB, Giorgi F, Piani C (2011) Regional climate model simulation of projected 21st century climate over an all-African domain: comparison analysis of nested and driving model result. J Geophys Res 116:D15111. doi:10.1029/2010JD015068

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Messager C, Gallee H, Brasseur O (2004) Precipitation sensitivity to regional SST in a regional climate simulation during the West African monsoon for two dry years. Clim Dyn 22:249–266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell TD, Carter TR, Jones PD, Hulme M, New M (2004) A Comprehensive Set of High-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901–2000) and 16 scenarios (2001–2100). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, Working Paper 55

  • Morcrette JJ (1991) Radiation and cloud radiative properties in the ECMWF forecasting system. J Geophys Res 96(D5):9121–9132. doi:10.1029/89JD01597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moufouma-Okia W, Rowell DP (2009) Impact of soil moisture initialisation and lateral boundary conditions on regional climate model simulations of the West African Monsoon. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0638-0

  • Nicholson SE (2008) On the factor modulating the intensity of the tropical rainbelt over West Africa. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.1702

  • Nicholson SE, Grist JP (2001) A conceptual model for understanding rainfall variability in the West African Sahel on interannual and interdecadal timescales. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.648

  • Nicholson SE, Webster PJ (2007) A physical basis for the interannual variability of rainfall in the Sahel. QJR Meteorol Soc 133:2065–2084

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholson SE, Some B, Kone B (2000) An analysis of recent rainfall conditions in West Africa, including the rainy seasons of the 1997 El Nino and the 1998 La Nina years. J Clim 13:2628–2640

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nikulin G, Jones C, Giorgi F, Asrar G, Baüchner M, Cerezo-Mota R, Christensen OB, Déqué M, Fernandez J, Hänsler A, van Meijgaard, Samuelsson, Sylla MB, Sushama L (2012) Precipitation climatology in an ensemble of CORDEX-Africa regional climate simulations. J Clim. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00375.1

  • Nordeng TE (1994), Extended versions of the convective parametrization scheme at ECMWF and their impact on the mean and transient activity of the model in the tropics. Res. Dept. Tech. Memo. 206. Eur. Cent. for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U.K. 41 pp

  • Paeth H, Hense A (2004) SST versus climate change signals in West African rainfall: 20th century and future projections. Clim Change 65:179–208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paeth H, Hall NMJ, Gaertner MA, Alonso MD, Moumouni S, Polcher J, Ruti PM, Fink AH, Gosset M, Lebel T, Gaye AT, Rowell DP, Moufouma-Okia W, Jacob D, Rockel B, Giorgi F, Rummukainen M (2011) Progress in regional downscaling of West African precipitation. Atm Sci Lett 12:75–82. doi:10.1002/asl.306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pal JS, Small EE, Eltahir EAB (2000) Simulation of regional-scale water and energy budgets: representation of subgrid cloud and precipitation processes within RegCM. J Geophys Res 105(29):579–594

    Google Scholar 

  • Pal JS, Giorgi F, Bi X, Elguindi N, Solomon F, Gao X, Francisco R, Zakey A, Winter J, Ashfaq M, Syed F, Bell JL, Diffanbaugh NS, Kamacharya J, Konare A, Martinez D, da Rocha RP, Sloan LC, Steiner A (2007) The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET: regional climate modeling for the developing world. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 88:1395–1409

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramel R, Gallee H, Messager C (2006) On the northward shift of the West African monsoon. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0093-5

  • Rechid D, Raddatz TJ, Jacob D (2009) Parameterization of snow-free land surface albedo as a function of vegetation phenology based on MODIS data and applied in climate modelling. Theor Appl Climatol 95:245–255

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Redelsperger JL, Thorncroft CD, Diedhiou A, Lebel T, Parker DJ, Polcher J (2006) African monsoon multidisciplinary analysis: international research project and field campaign. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87:1739–1746

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reynolds RW, Smith TM, Liu C, Chelton DB, Casey KS, Schlax MG (2007) Daily high-resolution blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J Clim 20:5473–5496

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Semazzi HFM, Sun L (1997) The role of orography in determining the Sahelian climate. Int J Climatol 17:581–596. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199705)17:6<581::AIDJOC134>3.0.CO;2-E

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simmons AS, Uppala DD, Kobayashi S (2007) ERA-interim: new ECMWF reanalysis products from 1989 onwards. ECMWF Newsl 110:29–35

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith RNB (1990) A scheme for predicting layer clouds and their water content in a general circulation model. Q J R Meteorol Soc 116:435–460

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Steiner AL, Pal JS, Rauscher SA, Bell JL, Diffenbaugh NS, Boone A, Sloan LC, Giorgi F (2009) Land surface coupling in regional climate simulations of the West African monsoon. Clim Dyn 33:869–892

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sundquist H (1978) A parameterization scheme for non-convective condensation including precipitation including prediction of cloud water content. Q J R Meteorol Soc 104:677–690

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sylla MB, Gaye AT, Pal JS, Jenkins GS, Bi X (2009) High resolution simulations of West African climate using Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) with different lateral boundary conditions. Theor Appl Climatol 98:293–314. doi:10.1007/s00704-009-0110-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sylla MB, Gaye AT, Jenkins GS, Pal JS, Giorgi F (2010a) Consistency of projected drought over the Sahel with changes in the monsoon circulation and extremes in a regional climate model projection. J Geophys Res 115:D16108. doi:10.1029/2009JD012983

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sylla MB, Dell’Aquila A, Ruti PM, Giorgi F (2010b) Simulation of the intraseasonal and the interannual variability of rainfall over West Africa with a Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) during the monsoon period. Int J Climatol 30:1865–1883. doi:10.1002/joc.2029

    Google Scholar 

  • Sylla MB, Coppola E, Mariotti L, Giorgi F, Ruti PM, Dell’Aquila A, Bi X (2010c) Multiyear simulation of the African climate using a regional climate model (RegCM3) with the high resolution ERA-interim reanalysis. Clim Dyn 35:231–247. doi:10.1007/s00382-0090613-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sylla MB, Giorgi F, Ruti PM, Calmanti S, Dell’Aquila A (2011) The impact of deep convection on the West African summer monsoon climate: a regional climate model sensitivity study. QJR Meteorol Soc 137:1417–1430. doi:10.1002/qj.853

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sylla MB, Giorgi F, Coppola E, Mariotti L (2012) Uncertainties in daily rainfall over Africa: assessment of observation products and evaluation of a regional climate model simulation. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.3551

  • Tiedtke M (1989) A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large scale models. Mon Weather Rev 117:1779–1800

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tiedtke M (1993) Representation of clouds in large-scale models. Mon Weather Rev 121:3040–3061

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Uppala S, Dee D, Kobayashi S, Berrisford P, Simmons A (2008) Towards a climate data assimilation system: status update of ERA-interim. ECMWF Newsl 115:12–18

    Google Scholar 

  • Van den Hurk BJJM, Viterbo P, Beljaars ACM, Betts AK (2000), Offline validation of the ERA40 surface scheme. ECMWF Technical Memo. 295, Eur. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

  • Van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impact: summary of research and the results from the ENSEMBLES Project. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, p 160

    Google Scholar 

  • Vizy EK, Cook KH (2002) Development and application of a mesoscale climate model for the tropics: influence of sea surface temperature anomalies on the West African monsoon. J Geophys Res 107. doi:10.1029/2001JD000686

  • Wang G, Eltahir EAB (2000) The role of vegetation dynamics in enhancing the low-frequency variability of the Sahel rainfall. Water Resour Res 36:1013–1021

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson CA (1992) Vertical diffusion. Unified model documentation paper No. 21. United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Bracknell, p 4

    Google Scholar 

  • Xie P, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2539–2558

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xue Y, De Sales F, Lau KMW, Bonne A, Feng J, Dirmeyer P, Guo Z, Kim KM, Kitoh A, Kumar V, Poccard-Leclercq I, Mahowald N, Moufouma-Okia W, Pegion P, Rowell DP, Schemm J, Schulbert S, Sealy A, Thiaw WM, Vintzileos A, Williams SF, Wu ML (2010) Intercomparison of West African Monsoon and its variability in the West African Monsoon Modelling Evaluation Project (WAMME) first model Intercomparison experiment. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0778-2

  • Yamada TJ, Kanae S, Oki T, Hirabayashi Y (2012) The onset of the West African monsoon simulated in a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with reanalyzed soil moisture fields. Atmos Sci Lett 103–107. doi:10.1002/asl.367

Download references

Acknowledgments

Ismaila Diallo is supported by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) through the Sandwich Training Educational Programme (STEP). Therefore, we gratefully acknowledge ICTP and its Earth System Physics section. Thanks also to the two anonymous reviewers whose comments significantly improve the quality of this paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory for Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics-Simeon Fongang (LPAO-SF), Polytechnic School, Cheikh Anta Diop University, PO Box 5085, Dakar-Fann, Dakar-Senegal

    Ismaila Diallo & Amadou T. Gaye

  2. Department of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, Seaver College of Science and Engineering, Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles, CA, USA

    Mouhamadou B. Sylla

  3. Department of Physics—UFR of Science and Technologies, University of Ziguinchor, Ziguinchor, Senegal

    Moctar Camara

Authors
  1. Ismaila Diallo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Mouhamadou B. Sylla
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Moctar Camara
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Amadou T. Gaye
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ismaila Diallo.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Diallo, I., Sylla, M.B., Camara, M. et al. Interannual variability of rainfall over the Sahel based on multiple regional climate models simulations. Theor Appl Climatol 113, 351–362 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0791-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0791-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation