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Meteorological subdivisional-level extended range forecast over India during southwest monsoon 2012

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Abstract

The real-time multi-model ensemble (MME)-based extended range (up to 3 weeks) forecast of monsoon rainfall over India during the 2012 monsoon season is analyzed using the outputs of European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) monthly forecast coupled model, National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 coupled model and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)’ ensemble prediction system. Although the individual models show useful skill in predicting the extended range forecast of monsoon, the MME forecast is found to be superior compared to these. For the country as a whole, the correlation coefficient (CC) between the observed and MME forecast rainfall departure is found to be statistically significant (99 % level) at least for 2 weeks (up to 18 days). Over the four homogeneous regions of India, the CC is found to be significant (above 95 % level) up to 2 weeks except in case of northeast India, which shows significant CC for week 1 (days 5–11) only. On the meteorological subdivision level (India is divided into 36 meteorological subdivisions) the mean percentage of correct forecast is found to be much higher than the climatology forecast. Considering the complex problem of forecasting of monsoon in the extended range timescales, the MME-based predictions for 2–3 weeks provide skillful results and useful guidance for application in agriculture and other sectors in India.

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Acknowledgments

We sincerely acknowledge the ECMWF, NCEP, JMA for providing the real-time forecast products of their coupled models, which have been used for preparing the multi-model ensemble forecast of Indian monsoon rainfall. The author is thankful to the Director General, India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Deputy Director General of Meteorology, NWP division, IMD for providing all facility to carry out this work. Thanks are also due to NASA GSFC for providing TRMM rainfall data and the Hydrology Unit of IMD for making available the daily met-Subdivisional level rainfall data used in the present study. Thanks are due to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments, which were helpful to improve the quality of the paper.

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    D. R. Pattanaik

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Pattanaik, D.R. Meteorological subdivisional-level extended range forecast over India during southwest monsoon 2012. Meteorol Atmos Phys 124, 167–182 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-014-0308-6

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