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Pancreatic cysts in general population on ultrasonography: Prevalence and development of risk score

  • Original Article—Liver, Pancreas, and Biliary Tract
  • Published:
Journal of Gastroenterology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Background

Pancreatic cysts are related to the presence of ductal adenocarcinomas elsewhere in the pancreas, and are also associated with an increased risk of pancreatic adenocarcinoma in the future. Most of the previous studies that investigated the prevalence of pancreatic cysts focused on patients within a hospital or out-patient setting, which may not be representative of the general population. We investigated the prevalence and predictive factors for the presence of pancreatic cysts within a large number of subjects via general health examination.

Methods

Between December 2007 and December 2013, a total of 5198 subjects were enrolled that underwent ultrasonography (US) on general health examination. We established a scoring system for predicting the presence of one or more pancreatic cysts using a split-sample method.

Results

Among the enrolled subjects, the prevalence of a pancreatic cyst was 3.5 %. In multivariate analysis, the prevalence was significantly increased with older age, female sex, and the presence of gall bladder adenomyomatosis (GB-ADM). Based on multivariate analysis in the training sample (n = 2,599), we established the scoring system consisting of age, sex, and the presence of GB-ADM to predict the presence of pancreatic cysts. This scoring system was validated in the testing sample (n = 2,599) and produced an area under the curve of 0.711.

Conclusions

The prevalence of pancreatic cyst detected by US was 3.5 % in the general population, and increased with age, female sex, and the presence of GB-ADM. A new scoring system developed in the present study may help to identify better candidates for further examination when the pancreas is not visible by US.

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Abbreviations

AUC:

Area under the curve

CI:

Confidence interval

CT:

Computed tomography

EUS:

Endoscopic ultrasonography

GB-ADM:

Gallbladder adenomyomatosis

MPD:

Main pancreatic duct

MRI:

Magnetic resonance imaging

NPV:

Negative predictive value

OR:

Odds ratio

ROC:

Receiver-operation characteristic

SD:

Standard deviation

US:

Ultrasonography

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by Health Sciences Research Grants of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan (Research on Hepatitis). No additional external funding was received for this study. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Clinical Laboratory, The University of Tokyo Hospital, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan

    Yoko Soroida, Masaya Sato, Hiromi Hikita, Shu Hagiwara, Mamiko Sato, Hiroaki Gotoh, Sachiko Kato, Tomomi Iwai, Yutaka Yatomi & Hitoshi Ikeda

  2. Department of Biofunctional Informatics, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan

    Yoko Soroida & Tetsuo Sasano

  3. Department of Gastroenterology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

    Masaya Sato

  4. Center for Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

    Tsutomu Yamazaki

  5. Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

    Yutaka Yatomi & Hitoshi Ikeda

Authors
  1. Yoko Soroida
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  2. Masaya Sato
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  3. Hiromi Hikita
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  4. Shu Hagiwara
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  5. Mamiko Sato
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  6. Hiroaki Gotoh
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  7. Sachiko Kato
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  8. Tomomi Iwai
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  9. Tsutomu Yamazaki
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  10. Yutaka Yatomi
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  11. Tetsuo Sasano
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  12. Hitoshi Ikeda
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Masaya Sato.

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The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

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Soroida, Y., Sato, M., Hikita, H. et al. Pancreatic cysts in general population on ultrasonography: Prevalence and development of risk score. J Gastroenterol 51, 1133–1140 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00535-016-1196-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00535-016-1196-y

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