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Projecting the impact of climate change on phenology of winter wheat in northern Lithuania

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Abstract

Climate warming and a shift in the timing of phenological phases, which lead to changes in the duration of the vegetation period may have an essential impact on the productivity of winter crops. The main purpose of this study is to examine climate change-related long-term (1961–2015) changes in the duration of both initial (pre-winter) and main (post-winter) winter wheat vegetation seasons and to present the projection of future phenological changes until the end of this century. Delay and shortening of pre-winter vegetation period, as well as the advancement and slight extension of the post-winter vegetation period, resulted in the reduction of whole winter wheat vegetation period by more than 1 week over the investigated 55 years. Projected changes in the timing of phenological phases which define limits of a main vegetation period differ essentially from the observed period. According to pessimistic (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5) scenario, the advancement of winter wheat maturity phase by almost 30 days and the shortening of post-winter vegetation season by 15 days are foreseen for a far (2071–2100) projection. An increase in the available chilling amount is specific not only to the investigated historical period (1960–2015) but also to the projected period according to the climate change scenarios of climate warming for all three projection periods. Consequently, the projected climate warming does not pose a threat of plant vernalization shortage in the investigated geographical latitudes.

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Acknowledgements

This research was funded by a grant (No. SIT-8/2015) from the Research Council of Lithuania. This work was part of the long-term research programs “Productivity and sustainability of agricultural and forest soils” and “Biopotential and quality of plants for multifunctional use” implemented by the Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Sciences, Vytautas Magnus University, Kaunas, Lithuania

    Romualdas Juknys, Arvydas Kanapickas, Martynas Klepeckas & Gintarė Sujetovienė

  2. Experimental Station, Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Noreikiškės, Lithuania

    Rimantas Velička, Zita Kriaučiūnienė, Ilona Vagusevičienė & Rita Pupalienė

  3. Joniškėlis Experimental Station, Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry, Joniškėlis, Lithuania

    Laura Masilionytė

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  1. Romualdas Juknys
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  2. Rimantas Velička
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  3. Arvydas Kanapickas
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  4. Zita Kriaučiūnienė
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  9. Gintarė Sujetovienė
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Correspondence to Gintarė Sujetovienė.

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Juknys, R., Velička, R., Kanapickas, A. et al. Projecting the impact of climate change on phenology of winter wheat in northern Lithuania. Int J Biometeorol 61, 1765–1775 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1360-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1360-y

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