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An observation-based progression modeling approach to spring and autumn deciduous tree phenology

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Abstract

It is important to accurately determine the response of spring and autumn phenology to climate change in forest ecosystems, as phenological variations affect carbon balance, forest productivity, and biodiversity. We observed phenology intensively throughout spring and autumn in a temperate deciduous woodlot at Milwaukee, WI, USA, during 2007–2012. Twenty-four phenophase levels in spring and eight in autumn were recorded for 106 trees, including white ash, basswood, white oak, boxelder, red oak, and hophornbeam. Our phenological progression models revealed that accumulated degree-days and day length explained 87.9–93.4 % of the variation in spring canopy development and 75.8–89.1 % of the variation in autumn senescence. In addition, the timing of community-level spring and autumn phenophases and the length of the growing season from 1871 to 2012 were reconstructed with the models developed. All simulated spring phenophases significantly advanced at a rate from 0.24 to 0.48 days/decade (p ≤ 0.001) during the 1871–2012 period and from 1.58 to 2.00 days/decade (p < 0.02) during the 1970–2012 period; two simulated autumn phenophases were significantly delayed at a rate of 0.37 (mid-leaf coloration) and 0.50 (full-leaf coloration) days/decade (p < 0.01) during the 1970–2012 period. Consequently, the simulated growing season lengthened at a rate of 0.45 and 2.50 days/decade (p < =0.001), respectively, during the two periods. Our results further showed the variability of responses to climate between early and late spring phenophases, as well as between leaf coloration and leaf fall, and suggested accelerating simulated ecosystem responses to climate warming over the last four decades in comparison to the past 142 years.

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Acknowledgments

We wish to thank the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Field Station for providing background tree information in the study area; Dr. Gretchen Meyer for helping identify all sampled trees; and Dr. Jonathan Hanes, Dr. Isaac Park, and Holly Wojnicz for helping with the fieldwork. We kindly acknowledge Dr. Benjamin L. Ruddell, Dr. Gretchen Meyer, and Dr. Jonathan Hanes for their insightful comments on earlier drafts of this paper. We finally thank two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments, which greatly improved our manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, 53211, USA

    Rong Yu, Mark D. Schwartz & Alison Donnelly

  2. Fulton Schools of Engineering, Arizona State University, Mesa, AZ, 85212, USA

    Rong Yu

  3. Department of Geography, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, 40506, USA

    Liang Liang

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  1. Rong Yu
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Correspondence to Rong Yu.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 9 Correlation coefficients between canopy development/senescence and two environmental factors (accumulated growing/chilling degree-days and day length)
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Yu, R., Schwartz, M.D., Donnelly, A. et al. An observation-based progression modeling approach to spring and autumn deciduous tree phenology. Int J Biometeorol 60, 335–349 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1031-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1031-9

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