Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

A respiratory alert model for the Shenandoah Valley, Virginia, USA

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
International Journal of Biometeorology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Respiratory morbidity (particularly COPD and asthma) can be influenced by short-term weather fluctuations that affect air quality and lung function. We developed a model to evaluate meteorological conditions associated with respiratory hospital admissions in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, USA. We generated ensembles of classification trees based on six years of respiratory-related hospital admissions (64,620 cases) and a suite of 83 potential environmental predictor variables. As our goal was to identify short-term weather linkages to high admission periods, the dependent variable was formulated as a binary classification of five-day moving average respiratory admission departures from the seasonal mean value. Accounting for seasonality removed the long-term apparent inverse relationship between temperature and admissions. We generated eight total models specific to the northern and southern portions of the valley for each season. All eight models demonstrate predictive skill (mean odds ratio = 3.635) when evaluated using a randomization procedure. The predictor variables selected by the ensembling algorithm vary across models, and both meteorological and air quality variables are included. In general, the models indicate complex linkages between respiratory health and environmental conditions that may be difficult to identify using more traditional approaches.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ackermann-Liebrich U, Leuenberger P, Schwartz J, Shindler C, Monn C, Bolognini G, Bongard JP et al (1997) Lung function and long term exposure to air pollutants in Switzerland. Study on Air Pollution and Lung Diseases in Adults (SAPALDIA) Team. Am J Respir Crit Care 155:122–129

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Anderson HR, Spix C, Medina S, Schouten JP, Castellsague J, Rossi G, Zmirou D et al (1997) Air pollution and daily admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 6 European cities: results from the APHEA project. Eur Respir J 10(5):1064–1071

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Arbex MA, Conceicao GM, Cendon SP, Arbex FF, Lopes AC, Moyses EP, Santiago SL, Saldiva PHM et al (2010) Urban air pollution and COPD-related emergency room visits. J Epidemiol Community H 63:777–783

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bartzokas A, Kassomenos P, Petrakis M, Celessides C (2004) The effect of meteorological and pollution parameters on the frequency of hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory problems in Athens. Indoor Built Environ 13(4):271–275

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bell ML, Ebisu K, Peng RD, Walker J, Samet JM, Zeger SL, Dominici F (2008) Seasonal and regional short-term effects of fine particles on hospital admissions in 202 U.S. counties, 1999–2005. Am J Epidemiol 168(11):1301–1310

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Braga ALF, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J (2002) The effect of weather on respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in 12 U.S. cities. Environ Health Perspect 110(9):859–863

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Braun-Fahrländer C, Vuille JC, Sennhauser FH, Neu U, Kunzle T, Grize L, Gassner M et al (1997) Respiratory health and long-term exposure to air pollutants in Swiss schoolchildren. Am J Respir Crit Care 155:1042–1049

    Google Scholar 

  • Breiman L, Friedman J, Olshen R, Stone C (1984) Classification and regression trees. Wadsworth, Belmont

    Google Scholar 

  • Celenza A, Fothergill J, Kupek E, Shaw RJ (1996) Thunderstorm associated asthma: a detailed analysis of environmental factors. Br Med J 312(7031):604–607

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Chen CH, Xirasagar S, Lin HC (2006) Seasonality in adult asthma admissions, air pollutant levels, and climate: a population-based study. J Asthma 43(4):287–292

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cleveland WS (1979) Robust locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots. J Am Stat Assoc 74:829–836

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cleveland WS, Devlin SJ (1988) Locally weighted regression: an approach to regression analysis by local fitting. J Am Stat Assoc 83:596–610

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis RE, Knappenberger PC, Michaels PJ, Novicoff WM (2004) Seasonality of climate-human mortality relationships in US cities and impacts of climate change. Clim Res 26:61–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis RE, Gawtry SD, Hondula DM, Knight DB, Sitka LJ, Stenger PJ (2009) Air quality climatology of the shenandoah valley and asthma alert system for the shenandoah valley. SHENAIR Program final project report, national oceanic and atmospheric administration (subcontract to James Madison University), July 13, 2009, 171 pp

  • Davis RE, Normile CP, Sitka L, Hondula DM, Knight DB, Gawtry SP, Stenger PJ (2010) A comparison of trajectory and air mass approaches to examine ozone variability. Atmos Environ 44(1):64–74

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Davis RE, Rossier CE, Enfield KB (2012) The impact of weather on influenza and pneumonia mortality in New York City, 1975–2002: A Retrospective Study. PLos One (in press)

  • Delfino RJ, Murphy-Moulton AM, Burnett RT, Brook JR, Becklake MR (1997) Effects of air pollution on emergency room visits for respiratory illnesses in Montreal, Quebec. Am J Respir Crit Care 155(2):568–576

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Delfino RJ, Murphy-Moulton AM, Becklake MR (1998) Emergency room visits for respiratory illnesses among the elderly in Montreal: association with low level ozone exposure. Environ Res 76(2):67–77

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Derrick EH, Szymanski S (2008) The relation of the seasonal variation of asthma to the weather: an Australia-wide survey. J Pediatr Child Health 3(2):82–89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Draxler RR, Hess GD (2004) Description of the HYSPLIT 4 Modeling System (NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL ARL-224). NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD

    Google Scholar 

  • Ehara A, Takasaki H, Takeda Y, Kida T, Mizukami S, Hagisawa M, Yamada Y (2000) Are high barometric pressure, low humidity and diurnal change of temperature related to the onset of asthmatic symptoms? Pediatr Int 42(3):272–274

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ferrari U, Exner T, Wanka ER, Bergemann C, Meyer-Arnek J, Hildenbrand B, Tufman A et al (2012) Influence of air pressure, humidity, solar radiation, temperature, and wind speed on ambulatory visits due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Bavaria, Germany. Int J Biometeorol 56(1):137–143. doi:10.1007/s00484-011-0405-x

  • Fung KY, Krewski D, Chen Y, Burnett R, Cakmak S (2003) Comparison of time series and case crossover analyses of air pollution and hospital admission data. Int J Epidemiol 32:1064–1070

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fusco D, Forastiere F, Michelozzi P, Spadea T, Ostro B, Arcà M, Perucci CA (2001) Air pollution and hospital admissions for respiratory conditions in Rome, Italy. Eur Respir J 17:1143–1150

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Garty BZ, Kosman E, Ganor E, Berger V, Garty L, Wietzen T, Waisman Y et al (1998) Emergency room visits of asthmatic children, relation to air pollution, weather, and airborne allergens. Ann Allergy Asthma Immunol 81(6):563–570

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gent JF, Triche EW, Holford TR, Belanger K, Bracken MB, Beckett WS, Leaderer BP (2003) Association of low-level ozone and fine particles with respiratory symptoms in children with asthma. J Am Med Assoc 290:1859–1867

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Giovanni M, Sala M, Riva E, Radaelli G (2010) Hospital admissions for respiratory conditions in children and outdoor air pollution in Southwest Milan, Italy. Acta Paediatr 99(8):1180–1185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goncalves FLT, Carvalho LMV, Conde FC, Latorre MRDO, Saldiva PHN, Braga ALF (2005) The effects of air pollution and meteorological parameters on respiratory morbidity during the summer in Sao Paulo city. Environ Int 31(3):343–349

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gonzalez-Alonso J, Teller C, Andersen SL, Jensen FB, Hyldig T, Nielsen B (1999) Influence of body temperature on the development of fatigue during prolonged exercise in the heat. J Appl Physiol 86:1032–1039

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gosai A, Salinger J, Dirks K (2009) Climate and respiratory disease in Auckland, New Zealand. Aust NZ J Public Health 33(6):521–526

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gosling SN, Lowe JA, McGregor GR, Pelling M, Malamud BD (2009) Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature. Clim Chang 92(3–4):299–341

    Google Scholar 

  • Hajat S, Haines A (2002) Associations of cold temperatures with GP consultations for respiratory and cardiovascular disease amongst the elderly in London. Int J Epidemiol 31(4):825–830

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hajat S, Bird W, Haines A (2004) Cold weather and GP consultations for respiratory conditions by elderly people in 16 locations in the UK. Eur J Epidemiol 19(10):959–968

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Halonen JI, Lanki T, Yli-Tuomi T, Kulmala M, Tiittanen P, Pekkanen J (2008) Urban air pollution, and asthma and COPD hospital emergency room visits. Thorax 63(7):635–641

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Halonen JI, Lanki T, Tiitanen P, Niemi JV, Loh M, Pekkanen J (2010) Ozone and cause-specific cardiorespiratory morbidity and mortality. J Epidemiol Community Health 64:814–820

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hashimoto M, Fukuda T, Shimizu T, Watanabe S, Watanuki S, Eto Y, Urashima M (2004) Influence of climate factors on emergency visits for childhood asthma attack. Pediatr Int 46(1):48–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hazucha M, Bates DV (1975) Combined effect of ozone and sulphur dioxide on human pulmonary function. Nature 267:50–51

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hefter JL (1980) Transport layer depth calculations. Proceedings of the 2nd Joint Conference on Applications of Air Pollution Modeling, New Orleans, USA.

  • Hoek G, Brunekreef B (1995) Effect of photochemical air-pollution on acute respiratory symptoms in children. Am J Respir Crit Care 151(1):27–32

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hondula DM, Sitka L, Davis RE, Knight DB, Gawtry SD, Deaton ML, Lee TR, Normile CP, Stenger PJ (2010) A back-trajectory and air mass climatology for the Northern Shenandoah Valley, USA. Int J Climatol 30(4):569–581

    Google Scholar 

  • Just J, Segala C, Ashraoui F, Priol G, Grimfeld A, Neukirch F (2002) Short-term health effects of particulate and photochemical air pollution in asthmatic children. Eur Respir J 20:899–906

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kashiwabara K, Kohrogi H, Ota K, Moroi T (2002) High frequency of emergency room visits of asthmatic children on misty or foggy nights. J Asthma 39(8):711–717

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin S, Lou M, Walker R, Randi JA, Liu X, Hwang S-A, Chinery R (2009) Extreme high temperatures and hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Epidemiology 20(5):738–746

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKeever TM, Britton J (2004) Diet and asthma. Am J Respir Crit Care 170:725–729

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Michelozzi P, Accetta G, De Sario M, D’Ippoliti D, Marino C, Baccini M, Biggeri A et al (2009) High temperature and hospitalizations for cardiovascular and respiratory causes in 12 European cities. Am J Respir Crit Care 179:383–389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mortimer KM, Neas LM, Dockery DW, Redline S, Tager IB (2002) The effect of air pollution on inner-city children with asthma. Eur Respir J 19:699–705

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Nastos PT, Matzarakis A (2006) Weather impacts on respiratory infections in Athens, Greece. Int J Biometeorol 50:358–369

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neas LM, Dockery DW, Ware JH, Spengler JD, Ferris BG, Speizer FE (1994) Concentration of indoor particulate matter as a determinant of respiratory health in children. Am J Epidemiol 139(11):1088–1099

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Newson R, Strachan D, Archibald E, Emberlin J, Hardaker P, Collier C (1998) Acute asthma epidemics, weather and pollen in England, 1987–1994. Eur Respir J 11(3):694–701

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Nisbet R, Elder J, Miner G (2009) Handbook of statistical analysis and data mining applications. Academic Press, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Piringer M, Baumann K, Langer M (1998) Summertime mixing heights at Vienna, Austria, estimated from vertical soundings and by a numerical model. Bound Layer Meteorol 89:25–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ponka A, Virtanen M (1996) Asthma and ambient air pollution in Helsinki. J Epidemiol Community Health 50:59–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prasad AM, Iverson LR, Liaw A (2006) Newer classification and regression tree techniques: bagging and random forests for ecological prediction. Ecosystems 9(2):181–199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rao JS, Potts WJE (1997) Visualizing bagged decision trees. In Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, Newport Beach, CA, USA

  • Romieu I, Meneses F, Ruiz S, Sienra JJ, Huerta J, White MC, Etzel RA (1996) Effects of air pollution on the respiratory health of asthmatic children living in Mexico City. Am J Respir Crit Care 154(2):300–307

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Rosas I (1998) Analysis of the relationships between environmental factors (aeroallergens, air pollution, and weather) and asthma emergency admissions to a hospital in Mexico City. Allergy 53:393–401

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenstreich DL, Eggleston P, Kattam M, Baker D, Slavin RG, Gergen P, Mithcell H et al (1997) The role of cockroach allergy and exposure to cockroach allergen in causing morbidity among inner-city children with asthma. N Engl J Med 336:1356–1363

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Sandberg S, Paton JY, Ahola S, McCann DC, McGuinness D, Hillary CR, Oja H (2000) The role of acute and chronic stress in asthma attacks in children. Lancet 356:982–987

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Schildcrout JS, Sheppard L, Lumley T, Slaughter JC, Koenig JQ, Shapiro GG (2006) Ambient air pollution and asthma exacerbations in children: an eight-city analysis. Am J Epidemiol 164:505–517

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schwartz J, Dockery DW, Neas LM, Wypij D, Ware JH, Spengler JD, Koutrakis P, Speizer FE, Ferris BG (1994) Acute effects of summer air pollution on respiratory symptom reporting in children. Am J Respir Crit Care 150:1234–1242

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Shaman J, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Lipsitch M (2010) Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States. PLoS Biol 8(2):e1000316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheridan SC (2002) The redevelopment of a weather-type classification scheme for North America. Int J Climatol 22(1):51–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sichletidis L, Tsiotsios I, Gavriilidis A, Chloros D, Gioulekas D, Kottakis I, Pataka A (2005) The effects of environmental pollution on the respiratory system of children in western Macedonia, Greece. J Invest Allergy Clin 15(2):117–123

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Slaughter JC, Kim E, Sheppard L, Sullivan JH, Larson TV, Claiborn C (2005) Association between particulate matter and emergency room visits, hospital admissions and mortality in Spokane, Washington. J Expo Anal Environ Epidemiol 15(2):153–159

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Spix C, Anderson HR, Schwartz J, Vigotti MA, LeTertre A, Vonk JM, Touloumi G et al (1998) Short-term effects of air pollution on hospital admissions of respiratory diseases in Europe: a quantitative summary of APHEA study results. Arch Environ Health 53(1):54–64

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Villeneuve PJ, Leech J, Bourque D (2005) Frequency of emergency room visits for childhood asthma in Ottawa, Canada: the role of weather. Int J Biometeorol 50(1):48–56

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Winslow CE-A, Herrington LP (1949) Temperature and human life. Princeton University Press, Princeton

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The ShenAir project was funded by NOAA Grant #529222. David Knight was partially supported by an American Meteorological Society Industry Fellowship and David Hondula was partially supported by a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to David M. Hondula.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Hondula, D.M., Davis, R.E., Knight, D.B. et al. A respiratory alert model for the Shenandoah Valley, Virginia, USA. Int J Biometeorol 57, 91–105 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0537-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0537-7

Keywords

Navigation