Original Paper

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

, Volume 28, Issue 6, pp 1511-1524

Modeling urban metabolism of Beijing city, China: with a coupled system dynamics: emergy model

  • Tao SongAffiliated withInstitute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesGraduate University of Chinese Academy of SciencesDivision of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University
  • , Jian-ming CaiAffiliated withInstitute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • , Teresa ChahineAffiliated withDepartment of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Harvard University
  • , Hui XuAffiliated withDivision of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University
  • , Fang-qu NiuAffiliated withInstitute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesKey Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences Email author 

Rent the article at a discount

Rent now

* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.

Get Access

Abstract

Chinese cities are plagued by the rise in resource and energy input and output over the last decade. At the same time, the scale and pace of economic development sweeping across Chinese cities have revived the debate about urban metabolisms, which could be simply seen as the ratio of output to resource and energy input in urban systems. In this study, an emergy (meaning the equivalent solar energy) accounting, sustainable indices of urban metabolisms, and an urban metabolic system dynamics model, are developed in support of the research task on Chinese cities ‘metabolisms and their related policies. The dynamic simulation model used in the paper is capable of synthesizing component-level knowledge into system behavior simulation at an integrated level, which is directly useful for simulating and evaluating a variety of decision actions and their dynamic consequences. For the study case, interactions among a number of Beijing’s urban emergy components within a time frame of 20 years (from 2010 to 2030) are examined dynamically. Six alternative policy scenarios are implemented into the system simulation. Our results indicate that Beijing’s current model of urban metabolism—tertiary industry oriented development mode—would deliver prosperity to the city. However, the analysis also shows that this mode of urban metabolism would weaken urban self-support capacity due primarily to the large share of imported and exported emergy in the urban metabolic system. The keys of improving the efficiency of urban metabolism include the priority on the renewable resource and energy, increase in environmental investment and encouragement on innovative technologies of resource and energy utilization, et al.

Keywords

Urban metabolism Emergy System dynamic model Beijing Sustainable development