Fuzzyprobabilistic calculations of waterbalance uncertainty
 Boris Faybishenko
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Hydrogeological systems are often characterized by imprecise, vague, inconsistent, incomplete, or subjective information, which may limit the application of conventional stochastic methods in predicting hydrogeologic conditions and associated uncertainty. Instead, predictions and uncertainty analysis can be made using uncertain input parameters expressed as probability boxes, intervals, and fuzzy numbers. The objective of this paper is to present the theory for, and a case study as an application of, the fuzzyprobabilistic approach, combining probability and possibility theory for simulating soil water balance and assessing associated uncertainty in the components of a simple waterbalance equation. The application of this approach is demonstrated using calculations with the RAMAS Risk Calc code, to assess the propagation of uncertainty in calculating potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and infiltration—in a case study at the Hanford site, Washington, USA. Propagation of uncertainty into the results of waterbalance calculations was evaluated by changing the types of models of uncertainty incorporated into various input parameters. The results of these fuzzyprobabilistic calculations are compared to the conventional Monte Carlo simulation approach and estimates from field observations at the Hanford site.
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 Title
 Fuzzyprobabilistic calculations of waterbalance uncertainty
 Journal

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Volume 24, Issue 6 , pp 939952
 Cover Date
 20100801
 DOI
 10.1007/s004770100379y
 Print ISSN
 14363240
 Online ISSN
 14363259
 Publisher
 SpringerVerlag
 Additional Links
 Topics

 Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution
 Computational Intelligence
 Statistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Earth Sciences
 Mathematical Applications in Earth Sciences
 Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes
 Math. Appl. in Environmental Science
 Keywords

 Water balance
 Uncertainty
 Fuzzyprobabilistic approach
 Fuzzy calculations
 Industry Sectors
 Authors

 Boris Faybishenko ^{(1)}
 Author Affiliations

 1. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, MS 901116, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA