Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Climate and human health: synthesizing environmental complexity and uncertainty

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Broad relationships between weather and human health have long been recognized, and there is currently a large body of research examining the impacts of climate change on human health. Much of the literature in this area examines climate–health relationships at global or regional levels, incorporating mostly generalized responses of pathogens and vectors to broad changes in climate. Far less research has been done to understand the direct and indirect climate-mediated processes involved at finer scales. Thus, some studies simplify the role of climate and may over- or under-estimate the potential response, while others have begun to highlight the subtle and complex role for climate that is contingent on other relevant processes occurring in natural and social environments. These fundamental processes need to be understood to determine the effects of past, current and future climate variation and change on human health. We summarize the principal climate variables and climate-dependent processes that are believed to impact human health across a representative set of diseases, along with key uncertainties in these relationships.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • AIRNow (2006) AIRNow: Quality of Air Means Quality of Life. http://www.airnow.gov/ Accessed Nov 2006

  • Basu R, Samet JM (2002) Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiol Rev 24:190–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bayoh M, Lindsay S (2003) Effect of temperature on the development of the aquatic stages of Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (Diptera: Culcidae). Bull Entomol Res 5:375–381

    Google Scholar 

  • Bernard SM, Samet JM, Grambsch A, Ebi KL, Romieu I (2001) The potential impacts of climate variability and change on air pollution-related health effects in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 2:199–209

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brasseur GP, Kiehl JT, Müller JF, Schneider T, Granier C, Tie XX, Hauglustaine DD (1998) Past and future changes in global tropospheric ozone: impact on radiative forcing. Geophys Res Lett 20:3807–3810

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buchanan CM, Beverland IJ, Heal MJ (2002) The influence of weather-type and long-range transport on airborne particle concentrations in Edinburgh, UK. Atmos Environ 36:5343–5354

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Burnett R, Ma R, Jerrett M, Goldberg M, Cakmak S, Pope C, Krewski D (2001) The spatial association between community air pollution and mortality: a new method of analyzing correlated geographic cohort data. Environ Health Perspect 109:375–380. doi:10.2307/3434784

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Cakmak S, Burnett RT, Jerrett M, Goldberg M, Pope C, Renjun M, Gultekin T, Thun M, Krewski D (2003) Spatial regression models for large-cohort studies linking community air pollution and health. J Toxicol Environ Health 66:1811–1823

    Google Scholar 

  • CDC (2002) Heat-related deaths—Four states, July–August 2001, and United States, 1979–1999. MMWR 51:567–570

    Google Scholar 

  • Coetzee M, Craig M, Le Sueur D (2000) Distribution of African malaria mosquitoes belonging to the Anopheles gambiae complex. Parasitol Today 16:74–77

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Colwell RR (1996) Global climate and infectious disease: the cholera paradigm. Science 274:2025–2031

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Colwell RR, Huq A (2001) Marine ecosystems and cholera. Hydrobiologia 3:141–145. doi:10.1023/A:1013111016642

    Google Scholar 

  • Comrie AC (2005) Climate factors influencing the coccidioidomycosis seasonality and outbreaks. Environ Health Perspect 6:688–692

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crane M, Whitehouse P, Comber S, Ellis J, Wilby R (2005) Climate change influences on environmental and human health chemical standards. Hum Ecol Risk Assess 11:289–318

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Cromley EK, McLafferty S (2002) GIS and public health. Guilford Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Curriero FC, Patz JA, Rose JB, Lele S (2001) The association between extreme precipitation and waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States, 1948–1994. Am J Public Health 8:1194–1199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis RE, Gay DA (1993) A synoptic climatological analysis of air quality in the Grand Canyon National Park. Atmos Environ 27:713–727

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis RE, Knappenberger PC, Michaels PJ, Novicoff WM (2003) Changing heat-related mortality in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 111:1712–1718

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Del Casino VJ (2004) (Re)placing health and health care: mapping the competing discourses and practices of ‘traditional’ and ‘modern’ Thai medicine. Health Place 10:59–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ebi KL, Teisberg TJ, Kalkstein LS, Robinson L, Weiher RF (2004) Heat watch/warning systems save lives: estimated costs and benefits for Philadelphia 1995–98. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:1067–1073

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ebi K, Hartman J, Chan N, McConnell J, Schlesinger M, Weyant J (2005) Climate suitability for stable malaria transmission in Zimbabwe under different climate change scenarios. Clim Change 73:375–393

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elliott P (2000) Spatial epidemiology: methods and applications. Oxford University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Engelthaler DM, Mosley DG, Cheek JE, Levy CE, Komatsu KK, Ettestad P, Davis T, Tanda DT, Miller L, Frampton JW, Porter R, Bryan RT (1999) Climatic and environmental patterns associated with hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, four corners region, US. Emerg Infect Dis 1:87–94

    Google Scholar 

  • EPA (1997) Ozone: Good Up High, Bad Nearby. http://www.epa.gov/oar/oaqps/gooduphigh

  • Epstein P, Mills E (2005) Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions. The Center for Health and the Global Environment, Harvard Medical School, Cambridge, p 142

    Google Scholar 

  • Gagnon A, Smoyer-Tomic K, Bush A (2002) The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and malaria epidemics in South America. Int J Biometeorol 46:81–89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gauderman WJ, Avol E, Gilliland F, Vora H, Thomas D, Berhane K, McConnell R, Kuenzli N, Lurmann F, Rappaport E, Margolis H, Bates D, Peters J (2004) The effect of air pollution on lung development from 10 to 18 years of age. N Engl J Med 351:1057–1067

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Glass GE, Cheek JE, Patz JA, Shields TM, Doyle TJ (2000) Using remotely sensed data to identify areas at risk for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. Emerg Infect Dis 3:238–247

    Google Scholar 

  • Godish T (1991) Air quality. Lewis Publishers, Chelsea

    Google Scholar 

  • Haggett P (1994) Geographical aspects of the emergence of infectious diseases. Geogr Ann 76:91–104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hay S, Cox J, Rogers D, Randolph S, Stern D, Shanks G, Myers M, Snow R (2002) Climatic change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African Highlands. Nature 415:905–909

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hjelle B, Glass G (2000) Outbreak of hantavirus infection in the four corners region of the United States in the Wake of the 1997–1998 El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J Infect Dis 181:1569–1573. doi:10.1086/315467

    Google Scholar 

  • Huq A, West PA, Small EB, Huq MI, Colwell RR (1984) Influence of water temperature, salinity, and pH on survival and growth of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae serovar 01 associated with live copepods in laboratory microcosms. Appl Environ Microbiol 2:420–424

    Google Scholar 

  • Huq A, Sack R, Colwell R (2001) Cholera and global ecosystems. In: Aron J, Patz J (eds) Ecosystem change and public health: a global perspective. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, pp 327–347

  • Kalkstein L, Davis R (1989) Weather and human mortality: an evaluation of demographic and interregional responses in the United States. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 1:44–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalkstein L, Greene S (1997) An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large US cities and the possible impacts of climate change. Environ Health Perspect 1:84–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kolivras KN, Comrie AC (2003) Modeling valley fever incidence based on climate condition in Pima county, Arizona. Int J Biometeorol 47:87–101

    Google Scholar 

  • Kolivras KN, Comrie AC (2004) Climate and infectious disease in the southwestern United States. Prog Phys Geog 3:387–398. doi:10.1191/0309133304pp417ra

    Google Scholar 

  • Krewski D, Burnett R, Goldberg M, Hoover B, Siemiatycki J, Jerrett M, Abrahamowicz M, White W (2003) Overview of the reanalysis of the Harvard six cities study and American Cancer Society study of particulate air pollution and mortality. J Toxicol Env Heal A 66 (16–19):1507–1551

    Google Scholar 

  • Leung LR, William J, Gustafson I (2005) Potential climate change and implications to US air quality. Geophys Res Lett 32(L16711). doi:10.1029/2005GL022911

  • Lindsay S, Martens W (1998) Malaria in the African highlands: past, present and future. Bull World Health Organ 76:33–45

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lindsay S, Parson L, Thomas C (1998) Mapping the range and relative abundance of the two principal African malaria vectors, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and An. arabiensis, using climate data. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 265:847–854

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lipp EK, Huq A, Colwell RR (2002) Effects of global climate on infectious disease: the cholera model. Clin Microbiol Rev 15:757–770

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobitz B, Beck L, Huq A, Wood B, Fuchs G, Faruque ASG, Colwell R (2000) Climate and infectious disease: use of remote sensing for detection of Vibrio cholerae by indirect measurement. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 4:1438–1443. doi:10.1073/pnas.97.4.1438

    Google Scholar 

  • Martens W, Niessen L, Rotmans J, Jetten T, McMichael A (1995) Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk. Environ Health Perspect 103:458–464

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Mayer JD (2000) Geography, ecology and emerging infectious diseases. Soc Sci Med 50:937–952

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • McGeehin MA, Mirabelli M (2001) The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 109:185–189

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mickley LJ, Jacob DJ, Field BD (2004) Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States. Geophys Res Lett 31(L24103). doi:10.1029/2004GL021216

  • Mills JN, Ksiazek TG, Peters CJ, Childs JE (1999) Long-term studies of hantavirus reservoir populations in the southwestern United States: a synthesis. Emerg Infect Dis 1:135–142

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mutuku F, Alaii J, Nabie Bayoh M, Gimnig J, Vulule J, Walker E, Kabiru E, Hawley W (2006) Distribution, description, and local knowledge of larval habitats of Anopheles gambiae S.L. in a village in Western Kenya. Am J Trop Med Hyg 74:44–53

    Google Scholar 

  • Pampana E (1969) A textbook of malaria eradication. Oxford University Press, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Pappagianis D (1988) Epidemiology of coccidioidomycosis. Curr Top Med Mycol 6:199–238

    Google Scholar 

  • Parmenter RR, Brunt JW, Moore DI, Ernest S (1993) The hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest: rodent population dynamics and the implications for transmission of hantavirus-associated adult respiratory distress syndrome (HARDS) in the Four Corners region. Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico; Sevilleta Long-Term Ecological Research Program (LTER); Publication No:41

  • Pascual M, Ahumada JA, Chaves LF, Rodó X, Bouma M (2006) Malaria Resurgence in the East African highlands: Temperature trends revisited. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 15:5829–5834. doi:10.1073/pnas.0508929103

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Patt A, Suarez P, Gwata C (2005) Effects of seasonal climate forecasts and participatory workshops among subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102:12623–12628

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Patz J, Olson S (2006) Malaria risk and temperature: influences from global climate change and local land use practices. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103:5635–5636

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Patz J, Strzepek K, Lele S, Hedden M, Greene S, Noden B, Hay S, Kalkstein L, Beier J (1998) Predicting key malaria transmission factors, biting and entomological inoculation rates, using modeled soil moisture in Kenya. Am J Trop Med Hyg 3:818–827

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, Foley JA (2005) Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 7066:310–317. doi:10.1038/nature04188

    Google Scholar 

  • Rainham D, Smoyer-Tomic K, Sheridan S, Burnett R (2005) Synoptic weather patterns and modification of the association between air pollution and human mortality. Int J Environ Heal R 5:347–360

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodó X, Pascual M, Fuchs G, Faruque ASG (2002) ENSO and cholera: a nonstationary link related to climate change? Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 20:12901–12906. doi:10.1073/pnas.182203999

    Google Scholar 

  • Rogers D, Randolph S (2000) The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world. Science 289:1763–1766

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Schwartz J, Litonjua A, Suh H, Verrier M, Zanobetti A, Syring M, Nearing B, Verrier R, Stone P, MacCallum G, Speizer FE, Gold DR (2005) Traffic related pollution and heart rate variability in a panel of elderly subjects. Br Thorac Soc 60:455–461

    Google Scholar 

  • Sheridan S, Kalkstein L (2004) Progress in heat watch-warning system technology. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 12:1931–1940

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smoyer KE (1998) Putting risk in its place: Methodological considerations for investigating extreme event health risk. Soc Sci Med 47:1809–1824

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Smoyer-Tomic KE, Rainham DC (2001) Beating the heat: development and evaluation of a Canadian hot weather health-response plan. Environ Health Perspect 109:1241–1248

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Smoyer-Tomic KE, Kuhn R, Hudson A (2003) Heat wave hazards: an overview of heat wave impacts in Canada. Nat Hazards 28:463–485

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Souch C, Grimmond C (2004) Applied climatology: ‘heat waves’. Prog Phys Geogr 28:599–606

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stevenson D, Doherty R, Sanderson M, Johnson C, Collins B, Derwent D (2005) Impacts of climate change and variability on tropospheric ozone and its precursors. Faraday Discuss 130:41–57

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Swaroop S (1946) Forecasting of epidemic malaria in Punjab. Am J Trop Med 29:1–17

    Google Scholar 

  • Thomson M, Connor S, Phindela T, Mason S (2005) Rainfall and sea surface temperature monitoring for malaria early warning in Botswana. Am J Trop Med Hyg 73:214–221

    Google Scholar 

  • Thomson M, Doblas-Reyes F, Mason S, Hagedorn R, Connor S, Phindela T, Morse A, Palmer T (2006) Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles. Nature 439:576–579

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wise EK, Comrie AC (2005) Meteorologically adjusted urban air quality trends in the southwestern United States. Atmos Environ 16:2969–2980

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • WHO (2001) Malaria early warning systems: a framework for field research in Africa. World Health Organization, Roll Back Malaria Technical Support Network for the Prevention and Control of Malaria Epidemics, Geneva

  • Yates TL, Mills JN, Parmenter CA, et al (2002) The ecology and evolution of an emergent disease: hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. BioScience 10:989–998

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Arizona, Harvill Building, Box #2, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA

    James D. Tamerius, Erika K. Wise, Christoper K. Uejio & Andrew C. Comrie

  2. Arid Lands Resource Sciences, University of Arizona, 1955 East Sixth Street, PO Box 210184, Tucson, AZ, 85719, USA

    Amy L. McCoy

Authors
  1. James D. Tamerius
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Erika K. Wise
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Christoper K. Uejio
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Amy L. McCoy
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Andrew C. Comrie
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Andrew C. Comrie.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Tamerius, J.D., Wise, E.K., Uejio, C.K. et al. Climate and human health: synthesizing environmental complexity and uncertainty. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 21, 601–613 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-007-0142-1

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-007-0142-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation